It is not a question of whether full scale war comes…the only question is when?

There is little doubt war between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and Hamas will occur. It is just a matter of when? For Israel to survive they will have to fight on at least five fronts simultaneously.

For Israel it will be a war of national survival.

With some 170,000 missiles targeting Israel plus missile and tunnel attacks from Gaza and possibly Syria itself the war will cost Israel many military and civilian lives and a substantial amount of property damage. There is no way Israel can defend against barrages of so many missiles. The recent Iranian drone Israel destroyed was undoubtedly designed to map out important Israeli defense and infrastructure sites.

Only by a preemptive strike can Israel hope to save Israeli lives and property. Israel doesn’t want war but it is being forced upon it. That doesn’t mean the war won’t be costly. But waiting for Israel’s enemies to strike first will be even more costly.

No government, if it regards war as inevitable, even if it does not want it, would be so foolish as to wait for the moment which is most convenient for the enemy. – Otto von Bismarck (1815–1890)

Read the important analysis below by Martin Sherman:


INTO THE FRAY: THE PERILS OF POSTPONING PREEMPTION

By Martin Sherman

Israel is approaching a point when it must decide to destroy enemy capabilities, rather than attempting to deter the enemy from using them.

To remain at peace when you should be going to war may be often very dangerous…Let us attack and subdue…that we may ourselves live safely for the future. – Thucydides (c. 460–395 BCE)

No government, if it regards war as inevitable, even if it does not want it, would be so foolish as to wait for the moment which is most convenient for the enemy. – Otto von Bismarck (1815–1890)

…it is possible that the dangers into which we are steadily advancing would never have arisen. But the world and the Parliaments and public opinion would have none of that.. When the situation was manageable it was neglected, and now that it is thoroughly out of hand we apply too late the remedies which then might have effected a cure…

Winston Churchill (1874-1965), House of Commons, May 2, 1935.

In the past few days, senior IDF officers have publicly warned that the chances of war on Israel’s northern border in 2018 are growing significantly –see for example here and here.

100,000 missiles just for show?

The specter of renewed fighting presents Israel with a daunting dilemma.

Since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War, poorly conducted—and even more poorly concluded—by the Olmert government, the arsenal of the Iranian terror proxy, Hezbollah has grown exponentially in both the quantity and quality of its weaponry—now reportedly over ten times its pre-war size, and vastly enhanced in terms of its precision and destructive capacity.

Indeed, no one even vaguely familiar with the brutal nature of the organization—its gory past, and chilling proclamations of future intent—could even remotely entertain the hopelessly naïve belief that it was stockpiling over 100,000 missiles just for show.

Read more.

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