Well, folks, this is getting tight. Donald Trump is in his strongest-ever position in FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which gives him a 46 percent chance of winning the election. Trump’s chances are about the same, 45 percent, according our polls-only forecast, his best standing since it showed him with a 50 percent chance in the midst […]
By Nate Silver Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for […]
The Sunlight Foundation reports: Lobbyists wield enormous influence and, depending on your point of view, can bring positive or negative changes to our government. From reptile keepers to balloon enthusiasts, everyone has a constitutional right to petition government. The power some lobbyists hold over both parties in Congress and the White House is well documented. […]
PHILADELPHIA — Prepping for a week of sunburn and sleep deprivation for the love of the party, Democrats are wending their way to Philadelphia for their convention this week. What awaits them? So much. This is America in 2016, after all. The biggest story out of Philadelphia is the precipitous tumble from grace of Democratic […]
In this week’s politics chat, we check in on some surprising/crazy/totally normal general election polls. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Let’s talk general election polls. We’re a little over five months from Election Day, and polls show a close race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Today’s question: What […]
Tracking a candidate’s progress requires more than straight delegate counts. We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. See who’s on track and who’s falling behind The Democratic National Committee includes 712 “superdelegates,” usually elected officials and party leaders, whose votes at the convention are not […]