Florida based Earthquake Prediction Center Ends Successful Test Program Early
The recently organized International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) announces today that it has stopped its internal earthquake test program early because of a near perfect record in its predictions and the vital need to begin saving lives immediately. The IEVPC has just achieved an almost flawless level in earthquake prediction as demonstrated in the first three tests of its Catastrophic Geophysical Event (CGE) Monitoring and Warning System (CMWS). As a result, the IEVPC has decided to stop further evaluations and immediately begin notification of governments around the world of its now verified ability to predict large destructive earthquakes with a high degree of certainty.
According to Chairman/CEO Mr. John L. Casey, “We can no longer hold back in letting the earthquake prone nations of the world know that a proven system for highly reliable prediction of large earthquakes now exists. These geophysical dangers routinely kill thousands of people around the world every year, while at the same time destroying homes, businesses, and infrastructure, thereby extending the damage and suffering for many thousands more. The need to cut short our internal test program, originally planned for almost twenty earthquakes, is obvious. We now have a process for earthquake prediction that is so reliable that it must immediately be put into place wherever lives are at risk. The decision we have made to stop evaluation of our CMWS is similar to important drug testing programs. It is not unusual for promising new drugs to have testing stopped abruptly if the initial results are so compelling and people are dying every day without the drug. Likewise, we have decided we must not wait any longer but must aggressively get out the word about our capabilities.”
“What we need now is for nations of the world to recognize that it is a myth that earthquakes cannot be predicted and to begin to establish communication networks and standardized monitoring systems in known high risk zones. Other international groups are also coming out with effective tools for earthquake prediction. They, like us, realize that CGE’s can be predicted because of recent advances in technology, especially satellite sensor technology, and because of the integration of many prediction techniques and precursor signals into a single predictive process. Once in place, we believe we can maximize the time people have to prepare for these destructive events by providing months, weeks, and days of advance notice. While we will doubtless continue to improve our process for quake detection, there is no longer a need to continue the test program. At the same time, there is an overwhelming humanitarian need to end it,” notes Casey.
Casey states, “In September of last year I was approached by some of the world’s best seismologists in earthquake prediction to create this new organization that would integrate their combined skills, techniques, and decades of experience. They came to me because of my success in climate change prediction and especially how it relates to variations in earthquake and volcanic activity. Under the leadership of Director of Research Dr. Dong Choi, we have been busy assembling the best and brightest in earthquake prediction under one roof. That effort has now paid off. Many people worldwide will ultimately benefit from this initiative.”
In the past two months, the IEVPC concluded three separate tests in different areas of the world included the following:
1. Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. This test resulted in the correct prediction of timing and location of a major earthquake event that resulted in an amazing ten earthquakes ranging from M4.6 to M5.8 over a short eight day period spread along a fault line to a distance of about 1,500 km. Eight of the quakes hit within the first two days. These temblors, in combination, replaced the IEVPC’s previously predicted single quake of M7.5-M8.8. Mercifully for the people of Kamchatka and the Pacific Rim, as the substantial energy of the quake being monitored by the IEVPC approached the surface, it dispersed among several faults lines off the east coast of Kamchatka during October 14-22, 2012. This quake in its final form of multiple powerful quakes produced no known loss of life. Had a single quake struck, thousands of lives might have been lost because of direct quake effects and the generation of a Pacific-wide tsunami. Several IEVPC Associate Scientists were involved with this prediction including Dr. Z. Shou, Dr. M. Hayakawa, Dr. A. Bapat and Mr. V. Straser under the leadership of IEVPC Director of Research, Dr. Dong Choi.
2. Celebes Sea of Northern Indonesia. As a result of IEVPC precursor analysis conducted by lead investigator and Director of Research, Dr. Choi, a large oceanic quake (M6.0) was correctly predicted and took place on October 17, 2012 at the location and within the time frame estimated. Because of the deep ocean nature of this isolated quake’s epicenter, no damage or loss of life was recorded.
3. Myanmar. On November 11, 2012 a M6.8 quake struck central Myanmar near the location predicted with the magnitude and in the time frame as internal IEVPC estimates had forecast. Twelve lives were lost based on initial figures released by the government. Leading the initial precursor signal analysis and early detection of the Myanmar quake was renowned Indian seismologist Dr. Arun Bapat. Dr. Choi was also involved in this quake’s analysis and used other signals to confirm Dr. Bapat’s preliminary conclusions. The final opinion arrived at was for a potentially catastrophic geophysical event (CGE) which would strike central Myanmar within two weeks after November 6, 2012 and would have a magnitude between M6.5 and M7.0.
In his assessment of the Myanmar test CEO Casey explained, “I am of course delighted at the success of Dr. Bapat and Dr. Choi in their trial prediction of the Myanmar quake. Dr. Bapat is one of the most distinguished leaders in this field and his history making prediction of the Myanmar quake is only one example of the talent that resides in the IEVPC.
Unfortunately, it was impossible to know whether the Myanmar quake would happen since the IEVPC process had not been evaluated for an inland quake before. Issuing a warning was out of the question for what was then an unproven method with such a short time-span to strike, in a country with little or no effective earthquake reaction training for its citizens. It would have been grossly irresponsible. Issuing a public alert ran the risk of possibly causing panic throughout the country, resulting in far more deaths than that seen in the remote areas where the quake epicenter was located.”
From Dr. Bapat we have, “The fact that the Myanmar quake struck as predicted, and that it did so along with the Celebes Sea quake and the Kamchatka quake event has given us enough justification to end the test program early. Mr. Casey and Dr. Choi have done a great service to all by asking those like myself with many years in the field of earthquake prediction to come together to end the myth that these destructive earthquakes cannot be predicted. I believe we are now at that point in human history.”
Dr. Choi added, “We have had a remarkable level of success in our very first three tests. Further, they included diverse geophysical situations. The Kamchatka event was a traditional off shore Pacific Rim oceanic trench fault type. The Celebes Sea quake was a central oceanic deep ocean event with no companion fault. The Myanmar event was an inland quake with an associated known fault line.
What is important to note is that our process worked correctly in three distinctly different geological areas. This gave us another reason for ending the test program quickly. If our process had worked only for one type of quake and not others we might have had to stop and reevaluate our process. That is no longer required. It’s time to put our program for earthquake prediction in the field and start saving lives.”
Mr. Casey echoes Dr. Choi’s comments with, “This level of success in our predictions for Kamchatka, the Celebes Sea and Myanmar carries even more significance when one realizes all our work has been done in a start-up phase on a shoestring budget. A greater level of prediction success and improved warning notification time can be achieved for a state, region, or nation with requisite funding of global and on-site monitoring teams from the IEVPC.
In the special case of Kamchatka where we issued warnings during much of 2012, we remain concerned for the potential of another major seismic event and all should remain vigilant in that unique region of the planet where there is a history of powerful earthquakes. Our Russian colleagues are, however, well versed in parametric precursor analysis similar to what we employ.
We have also provided them additional information to detect a new unexpected earthquake and quickly react should that highly unstable area produce another threat. In any case it was gratifying to see the positive level of reaction to our warnings demonstrated by Russian geologists, Ambassador Kislyak’s office in Washington, and by President Medvedev’s trip to Kamchatka in August. While there he checked on the status of earthquake preparedness. We will nonetheless continue to keep Kamchatka on an active but lower alert status over the next year until relative stability returns. We believe a major earthquake will remain a serious threat for Kamchatka residents for some time.
Beginning this week we will start a systematic program for raising the capital needed to expand our operations out of our start-up phase and notify every nation that has to deal with CGE’s that we are here and able to help protect their people. The IEVPC has demonstrated that a new era in reliable earthquake forecasting has arrived.”
ABOUT IEVPC
The International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center is headquartered in Orlando, Florida, USA. The primary research facility is in Canberra, Australia with branch offices of cooperating scientists and researchers planned for the USA, India, China, and Japan. The IEVPC is a non-profit science research organization dedicated to the mission of protection of people through early prediction of Catastrophic Geophysical Events (CGE) such as earthquakes, associated tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. The IEVPC web site is at www.ievpc.org.
