Support for Amendment 2 plummets — Bad news for Charlie Crist
J.J. Whitson, Campaign Manager for the Vote No On Amendment 2, in an email reports that support for Amendment 2 has plummeted. Amendment 2 is supported by Democrats John Morgan and Charlie Crist. Support is also fading for Charlie Crist’s gubernatorial campaign.
Tampa Bay Times political Editor Adam C. Smith reports:
“The race between Rick Scott and Charlie Crist for Florida governor has long been seen as a toss-up, and recent polls bolster that perception of a campaign that could go either way. But conventional wisdom among Florida’s political elite has shifted decidedly in Gov. Scott’s favor, the latest Tampa Bay Times Florida Insider Poll shows.
When we surveyed more than 130 of Florida’s savviest political hands seven weeks ago, a slight majority predicted Scott would beat Crist. This week, two thirds of our Florida Insiders – including 38 percent of the Democrats participating – said they expect Scott to beat former Gov. Crist.” [Emphasis added]
Are the plummeting numbers for Amendment 2 having an impact on the race for governor?
According to News-Press.com:
Chart courtesy of News-Press.com. For a larger view click on the image.
The SurveyUSA/WFLA tracking poll finds that 53 percent of likely voters support Amendment 2, 32 percent oppose and another 15 percent are undecided. To pass, the initiative needs to top the 60 percent mark.
In Southwest Florida, those numbers drop to 48 percent in favor, 38 percent against, with the remainder unsure.
It’s a far cry from the halcyon days of summer when a Quinnipiac poll found nearly 90 percent support for the measure.
The SurveyUSA poll marks the worst showing to date for the initiative and only more data will tell us whether this is an outlier or a trend. Other polls in September show the measure hovering just above or below the critical 60 percent mark.
Despite this bad bit of polling news for backers, The News-Press forecast model puts the probability of Amendment 2 passing at 63.9 percent. Our model, based on all available data, predicts a 61.2 percent to 38.8 percent outcome.
The SurveyUSA poll of 588 likely voters was taken Sept. 19-22 and has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percent.
Barney Bishop III, President and CEO of Barney Bishop Consulting, LLC, in a Context Florida op-ed states:
As time goes by, it appears that Amendment 2 is facing serious opposition from likely voters.
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But to get to the core of the proponents’ arguments, their message is pretty simple: Medical pot is needed to help the sick and dying.
Though simple and straight-forward, it’s just not true. Medical pot won’t be for just the sick and dying and therein lies the problem that the proponents must face if the amendment has a chance of passage.
The reason is because of the “loopholes” that have been thoroughly discussed by this author and by many others.
Interestingly, the proponents’ campaign manager simply answers the questions by stating that our side is simply using scare tactics.
OK, that could be true, but are you going to show how our arguments are actually false, or just claim that we’re wrong.Because if all you’re going to do is to cry foul, then the arguments have validity until you prove otherwise.
First and foremost, Amendment 2 is not needed because Florida is already in the process of procuring rules for Charlotte’s Web, the low-THC, high-CBD oil that is extracted from weed to help sick patients.
Bishop concludes his op-ed with, “So, dudes, let me come clean. I’m a former pothead. The difference between me and you is that I can live without it. Unfortunately, you don’t want to. Amendment 2 isn’t about medical pot. It’s about high-THC pot, period. If law enforcement is against it and the medical profession is against it, it makes sense that it’s not right for Florida.”
