Iowa Poll: Trump and Clinton Surge 10 Days Before the Caucus — Cruz & Sanders Faltering
BOSTON, MA /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — In a new, statewide Iowa poll, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have surged to 9 and 10 point leads in Iowa with just 10 days before the first in the nation voting begins. Clinton receives 52% of the vote and Sanders at 43%. Trump leads his Republican rivals with 33%, followed byTed Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio (14%), and Ben Carson (9%) round out the top four with the rest of field under 6%; Rick Santorum — who won the 2012 Iowa GOP Caucus with 25% of the vote — has less than 1% of Iowans this time around, and Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus is at 2%.
The survey began January 18, the day after the latest Democrat debate, and concluded January 20, the day following Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump.
“At this point, while both Trump and Clinton have significant leads in their own primaries the electorate appears volatile, and it is still up in the air as to who will win,” said Henry Krause, a Senior Political Communication major at Emerson College, who helped oversee the project. The data fluctuated on the three days of polling on both sides with Clinton holding a 14 point lead on Monday, dropping to 9 points on Tuesday and was at 1 point, 48% to 47% on Wednesday. Trump also sees variability over the three days watching a 13 point lead on Monday drop to 4 points on Tuesday and rebounding on Wednesday to 12 points 35% to 22% over Cruz.
Iowa voters, however, are not thrilled with their 2016 Presidential options. The top three GOP candidates all have negative favorability numbers with Trump at 37% favorable to 55% unfavorable, Rubio at 37% favorable to 47% unfavorable and Cruz is worse at 34% favorable to 54% favorable. Clinton has the highest favorable rating at 42% but also carries a high unfavorable rating of 53%.
In the Democrat Primary, Clinton holds the support of registered Democrats 54% to 42% over Sanders, while Sanders holds a 44% to 36% lead among registered Independents. On the Republican side Trump holds a 34% to 24% over Cruz among registered Republicans and extends his lead to 15 points among Independents 30% to 15% over Cruz.
The survey also found that 66% of Iowan voters did not know a person of Muslim faith and that 28% said they did not have a Hispanic friend of acquaintance.
The ECPS poll was conducted from Monday, January 18 at 6:00 p.m., through Wednesday evening January 20. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters purchased through Aristotle Inc. Likely primary voters were classified through a screening question. For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. The Democratic and GOP Presidential primaries consisted of 258 and 271 adult registered likely primary voters in Iowa, with a margin of error of +/-6.1% and +/-5.9% respectively at a 95 percent confidence level, was used for the additional statewide questions. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system and weighted based on 2012 General Election voting to reflect likely voter populations in Iowa. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com
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