Now that ISIS Has Been Decimated What will the Future Look Like?

Based on all the signs, the Free Syrian Army forces, mostly made up of Kurdish and Syrian militias, are on the verge of liberating the city of Raqqa, the capital of the “Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.” The question that emerges is how the aftermath of ISIS will look.

The answer is threefold and involves the organization, its members and its ideology.

The organization will be routed and eradicated, the large swathe of territory it controlled will be divided between Syria, Iran, Turkey and the Kurds, and its government institutions will become relics of the past. The attempt to re-establish the Islamic caliphate failed because the Muslim world – even before the “infidels” – despised its methods of gruesome, seventh-century style executions.

Most of the organization’s members, however, are already elsewhere, carrying a sense of righteousness in their hearts. They feel betrayed and will seek revenge against all those who attacked them, such as the Kurds and coalition countries; Muslims who stood by and did not help them, such as former Soviet bloc countries; or countries that helped and then abandoned them along the way, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

These jihadists dispersed in many countries, establishing proxies in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Libya, Yemen, Nigeria, Mali, the Philippines and more, with every branch adjusting its structure and activities to the environment in which it operates. Variables include the degree to which local governments effectively wield power, the degree to which the local Muslim population is supportive, and the degree to which a terrorist organizational infrastructure already exists and can be utilized.

We saw a similar phenomenon after the defeat of al-Qaida in Afghanistan in late 2001, when one of its offshoots settled in Iraq and joined with the local Sunni population and the remnants of Saddam Hussein’s army to form Islamic State. Beginning in April 2003, it began exploiting the weak central government in Baghdad, and in March 2011, the government in Damascus.

Every local proxy, however, will suffer from the same fundamental problems prevalent in any radical Islamic group: First, there will be disagreements within the group over Shariah law and its implementation; over ruling a territory or remaining a non-sovereign jihadist entity; the severity of punishment for offenders; the title of leader (whether he will be named caliph or not) and his authority; its relations with similarly minded organizations; the status structure within the organization (Arabs versus non-Arabs, Muslims by birth versus Muslims by conversion), and more. There will also be a problem pertaining to the hostility between the Islamic organization and the local population, Muslim or otherwise, over which it wants to rule. In addition, the international community’s traditionally negative view of Islamic terrorist organizations could lead to all-out war.

Another question is how the Islamic world will be affected by the dashed dream of a caliphate. The fall of Islamic State will assuredly bolster those who oppose political Islam. On the other hand, the fall of the Sunni oganization strengthens the Shiite axis. The slow crawl of Sunni leaders (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) toward Iran is one sign of the Shiite axis’ growing power at the expense of the Sunnis. U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech last week may have the effect of slowing this trend down, depending on the action the U.S. takes.

The idea of an Islamic caliphate is not dead. It is alive and well in religious scriptures, textbooks, Friday sermons, internet forums and in the hearts of many millions, and in the near or distant future it will be resurrected, shake off the memory of recent events and begin anew. There will always be people who dream about ancient glory, about the resurrection of ancestral Salafism and its forefathers – Muhammad and his cohort, who “lived an ideal and proper lifestyle and showed us the right path for any place, time and environment.”

What is clear is that the fight against the “heretic, permissive, hedonistic, materialistic, drugged and inebriated West” will persist through lone-wolf or small-cell terrorist attacks. Countries around the world will continue to suffer from ramming attacks, stabbings, shootings, rapes, violence against women and children, public vandalism and other variances of jihad against all those who do not belong to the religion of Muhammad. Islamic State will disappear as an organization, but the world is likely to continue feeling the evil ideology this organization instilled in the hearts and minds of too many Muslims.


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2 replies
  1. Bill Coleman
    Bill Coleman says:

    A Summary of Recent Commentary from Bill Coleman (rev. 171108) …..

    (1) Islam is a living uncurable (unreformable) cancer on our freedom, our lives and all we non-Muslims hold dear …. and we promote that cancer whenever we elect a politician who does not believe that and will not act on that belief. Unreformable Islam allows moderate Islam to exist only as doctrinal Islamic jihad.

    (2)We get the government we deserve … thanks to the founding fathers … and that demands that we the voters have a way to vett primary candidates. Fundamental failure of We The People has been … the failure to unite in a precinct based nation wide organization with the few core principles that are needed to sustain Constitutional Freedom … with the core fundamental action being the identifying and vetting of primary candidates. Corruptible political parties do not vett their primary candidates on their ability or desire to sustain constitutional freedom except as randomly occurs in campaigns and voting.

    (3) “Radical Islam” and “radical Muslim (s)” are not terms that represent the Islamic enemy, because as oxymorons, both radical Islam and radical Muslim are jihadist terms used to hide the true source of Islamic terror … the inseparable deadly supremist tyrannical political component of the unreformable doctrine of Islam … and its enabler … all who do not work to identify, fight and win the political, legal, legislative and Constitutional battles to stop or reverse the advance of Islam. One way to surrender to Islam is to do nothing to oppose the advance of Islam.

    (4) What is the doctrine of “radical Islam”? If all groups or Muslims, identified as being radical Islam or radical Muslims were eradicated or dispersed, as is being done to ISIS … the Islamic enemy is still intact

    (5) Islamic Doctrine declared war on non-Muslims 1400 years ago and any advance of Islam … violent or non-violent … by any entity … (also known as “(outer) jihad” when done by a Muslim)… is an act of war because the end result of the accumulation of successful advances of Islam is the same end result that would be seen if the targeted culture lost a shooting war with Islamic terrorists and the Islamic victors continued to eradicate the defeated culture until all parts of the culture pleased Allah or were under the complete control of Islam. Successful jihad, not only defeats an infidel culture or nation as victory in war does, but also eventually eradicates all that does not please Allah.

    (6) “Not all muslims are muslim terrorists” is a true statement, but few muslims would stay alive in their culture if they did very much that indicated a lack of submission to Allah … and such a statement carries as much useful information as this true statement … “not all U.S. citizens are members of the U.S. military”.

    (7) ANOTHER COMMENT from me that shows part of the problem:

    ” Ref: The latest Islamic Terrorism in NYC that killed 8 kafirs/infidels. …

    Isn’t “harmed by the Muslim who decided to hit innocent people” somewhat of an over simplification that hides essential truth about Islam? In other words, it places blame on the individual while not acknowledging or giving a hint that defeating such Islamic terrorism will require constitutionally stopping or reversing the advance of Islam (in the U.S.).

    After any crime, we can blame the individual and any entity that promoted the crime. Additionally in the case of chronic Islamic terrorism, we can blame all in the U.S. … now and in the past … that do/did nothing to keep sworn indoctrinated enemies of all we hold dear from being in the U.S. with their deadly supremist tyrannical unreformable doctrine allowed to have Constitutional protection as a religion by the Constitution. … ”

    (8) PART OF THE SOLUTION: Contact me if you, the reader, are willing to vett candidates during public video recorded stump and townhall meetings with questions that will indicate, in addition to their past record, their understanding of Islam and effective counter jihad … similar to what I did at 55:10 in the video linked here … …. This should be done early in a campaign or even while you are searching for a person to promote as a candidate before the deadline for filing to run in a primary or general election has passed.

    (9) Questions:
    (A) What does 1400 years of the history of unreformable Islam predict will happen to the lives and freedom of you and/or your progeny and all you hold dear in your culture or nation if the advance of Islam is not politically, legally and constitutionally stopped or reversed?

    (B) Do you believe that any advance of Islam in the U.S. is an act of war against our freedom, our lives and all we hold dear?

    (C) How is any Muslim not considered to be connected to a dangerous source of hate and terror and is allowed to be a citizen of the U.S.? …. considering that Islam … aside from being a supremist, deceitful, tyrannical and unreformable organization … is a terrorist organization, teaches hate and death for non-members of their organization and provides the motivation for their members to do coordinated and uncoordinated Islamic terrorism?

    (my answer: The most important job of the federal government is to protect the lives, constitutional freedom and property of We The People. While social/communism has been a long standing threat, jihad and the allied socialist groups are the most dangerous threat to our current and future freedom, lives, property and all we hold dear. Muslims along with their terrorist organization known as Islam and many different like-minded affiliated sub groups are allowed to use our freedom within our borders to destroy us because We The People do not have the minimum organization required to find suitable primary candidates and/or vett the suitability of candidates for elected office. That is the main reason our U.S. Congress and state houses do not ratify the amendment(s) to the Constitution and/or pass the laws that will require law enforcement agencies to consistently use all of their Constitutional power to defend We The People.)

    (D) What determines that a Muslim has completely left Islam and that they and their progeny are very unlikely to be an Islamic threat to a non-Sharia Law culture or nation?

    (10) How elected politicians govern will reveal their actual answers to the above questions. Your evaluation of their answers to these and other questions, asked early in their campaigns, will help determine who gets elected. Will you ask them? Can you come up with additional questions that would help to reveal a candidate’s perspectives on the threat of Islam and/or counter jihad?

  2. Bill Coleman
    Bill Coleman says:

    p.s. … Muslim refugees may have their individual reasons for wanting to go to a non-Sharia Law nation, but any such refugee old enough to hate, knowns the one reason that all muslims have for going to a non-Sharia Law nation is doctrinal jihad.


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