Messaging App Poll Offers Details on the Youth Vote in 2018 Midterms
NEW YORK, Nov. 8, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Mei App Inc. today released details of its pre-election and exit poll results for the 2018 Midterm Senate and Governor races. The company conducted polls through its mobile messaging app, Mei. Approximately 5,000 pre-election polls were answered (out of ~10,000 sent) from October 26 to November 7. Approximately 2,800 exit polls were answered (out of ~5,500 sent) after elections closed on November 6.
Responses from young voters (age 18 – 29) represented roughly three quarters of poll responses, providing a unique perspective on how the youth vote contributed to the outcome of many elections across the country. Mei founder, Es Lee, commented, “Understanding young voters, who have typically been underrepresented in other polls and at voting booths, will become increasing important as this group become a larger part of the electorate.”
Pre-Election Poll
The following table summarizes pre-election voting preferences by age group in several hotly contested races. The percentages indicate the % of planned votes in favor of the Democratic candidate (out of combined planned votes for the Republican and Democratic candidates). As expected, the predominantly younger polling sample showed a significant preference towards Democratic candidates. However, how much young voters lean varied by race/candidate.
|
PRE-ELECTION POLL |
||||||||
|
AGE GROUP |
||||||||
|
Election |
OVERALL |
18-21 |
22-25 |
26-29 |
30-34 |
35-39 |
40+ |
|
|
TX Gov. (Valdez v. Abbott) |
50% |
47% |
50% |
56% |
63% |
44% |
25% |
|
|
FL Gov. (Gillum v. Desantis) |
65% |
50% |
82% |
88% |
67% |
56% |
64% |
|
|
GA Gov. (Abrams v. Kemp) |
73% |
69% |
89% |
88% |
50% |
100% |
67% |
|
|
OH Gov. (Cordray v. DeWine) |
64% |
75% |
63% |
50% |
50% |
nm |
75% |
|
|
TX Sen. (O’Rourke v. Cruz) |
65% |
63% |
67% |
73% |
63% |
71% |
33% |
|
|
IN Sen. (Donnelly v. Braun) |
68% |
80% |
67% |
67% |
50% |
100% |
nm |
|
|
AZ Sen. (Sinema v. McSally) |
67% |
86% |
80% |
60% |
100% |
25% |
33% |
|
|
Source = Mei Messaging |
nm = not meaningful |
|||||||
In Texas, the pre-election preferences in the Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz showed a large contrast between young voters (favoring O’Rourke) and older voters (favoring Cruz). In the Governor’s race, however, the same respondents showed lower variation across age groups and were more balanced between the two parties. In that race, where respondents were split, it appears voter race and gender were more indicative of voting preference.
|
PRE-ELECTION POLL |
||||||||
|
OTHER |
||||||||
|
Election |
WHITE |
BLACK |
LATINO |
N/A |
MALE |
FEMALE |
||
|
TX Gov. (Valdez v. Abbott) |
32% |
83% |
69% |
53% |
43% |
72% |
||
|
FL Gov. (Gillum v. Desantis) |
63% |
83% |
40% |
67% |
52% |
100% |
||
|
GA Gov. (Abrams v. Kemp) |
47% |
100% |
nm |
85% |
72% |
83% |
||
|
OH Gov. (Cordray v. DeWine) |
57% |
100% |
0% |
65% |
59% |
73% |
||
|
TX Sen. (O’Rourke v. Cruz) |
49% |
92% |
71% |
67% |
58% |
83% |
||
|
IN Sen. (Donnelly v. Braun) |
54% |
100% |
0% |
81% |
65% |
75% |
||
|
AZ Sen. (Sinema v. McSally) |
50% |
100% |
nm |
72% |
67% |
67% |
||
|
Source = Mei Messaging |
nm = not meaningful |
Exit Poll
Voters polled largely voted in the direction they were planning. Interestingly, the turnout amongst the poll’s predominantly young voters was much lower in Texas (23%) than in other races, likely contributing to the Republican Senate victory. News sources prior to the election reported youth turnout in early elections was abnormally high, but results suggest that did not last into the regular election.
|
EXIT POLL |
|||||||||
|
% |
AGE GROUP |
||||||||
|
Election |
OVERALL |
VOTED |
18-21 |
22-25 |
26-29 |
30-34 |
35-39 |
40+ |
|
|
TX Gov. (Valdez v. Abbott) |
58% |
23% |
55% |
67% |
60% |
67% |
67% |
33% |
|
|
FL Gov. (Gillum v. Desantis) |
50% |
28% |
47% |
50% |
71% |
60% |
nm |
nm |
|
|
GA Gov. (Abrams v. Kemp) |
80% |
43% |
60% |
100% |
100% |
nm |
nm |
50% |
|
|
OH Gov. (Cordray v. DeWine) |
67% |
37% |
73% |
67% |
40% |
nm |
nm |
nm |
|
|
TX Sen. (O’Rourke v. Cruz) |
61% |
23% |
62% |
71% |
67% |
67% |
33% |
33% |
|
|
IN Sen. (Donnelly v. Braun) |
69% |
46% |
83% |
100% |
nm |
nm |
nm |
nm |
|
|
AZ Sen. (Sinema v. McSally) |
53% |
40% |
80% |
40% |
nm |
nm |
nm |
nm |
|
|
Source = Mei Messaging |
nm = not meaningful |
||||||||
In the Florida Governor’s race poll, whereas White and Male voters appeared to favor Andrew Gillum(D) in pre-election polls, actually voting favored Ron Desantis (R). In the Arizona Senate race, actual voting by White and Female respondents turned more against Kyrsten Sinema (D) and in favor of Martha McSally (R) in actual voting.
|
EXIT POLL |
||||||||
|
OTHER/ |
||||||||
|
Election |
WHITE |
BLACK |
LATINO |
N/A |
MALE |
FEMALE |
||
|
TX Gov. (Valdez v. Abbott) |
52% |
71% |
83% |
50% |
49% |
85% |
||
|
FL Gov. (Gillum v. Desantis) |
25% |
50% |
100% |
54% |
37% |
100% |
||
|
GA Gov. (Abrams v. Kemp) |
63% |
86% |
100% |
89% |
80% |
80% |
||
|
OH Gov. (Cordray v. DeWine) |
60% |
75% |
nm |
71% |
63% |
80% |
||
|
TX Sen. (O’Rourke v. Cruz) |
62% |
75% |
80% |
47% |
54% |
79% |
||
|
IN Sen. (Donnelly v. Braun) |
60% |
100% |
100% |
nm |
64% |
100% |
||
|
AZ Sen. (Sinema v. McSally) |
29% |
100% |
nm |
67% |
67% |
20% |
||
|
Source = Mei Messaging |
nm = not meaningful |
Lee added, “Thousands of unique opinions and perspectives were represented in this initial test of our new anonymous polling ecosystem, which will soon be available to users of Mei. With most respondents answering polls in under 30 minutes, we hope to demonstrate that polling via a messaging app can be an effective complement to traditional polling methods.”
About Mei: Mei is a messaging app with a built-in AI assistant designed to give users personalized intelligence. The company recently introduced its anonymous polling feature which will enable users to gain personalized intelligence from other users anonymously. Mei is currently available for Android phones in the Google Play Store.
To find out more about Mei, you can follow them on Instagram or Twitter (@meimessaging) and Facebook (facebook.com/meimessaging). Mei can be also reached at info@textmei.com and www.textmei.com.
EDITORS NOTE: The featured photo is by rawpixel on Unsplash.
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