FLORIDA: Republican Registrations Report 2022

Notes: Indian River County (IRC) is often referred to in this report owing to the author’s familiarity with the County. Although the examples may not directly relate to the readers’ particular counties, it is hoped that the approach used to examine the situation would be helpful in all counties. The time period between data collection dates in this report was roughly six weeks instead of the normal monthly interval. Volusia County numbers look odd. In gathering the data, the total numbers of registered voters, and active registered voters, may have been confused.

Worth noting is that Lee County exceeded a milestone of having a more than a 100,000 Republican relative registrations advantage over the Democrats!

November 2022—Republican Registrations Report

This registrations report is for voter registrations through the end of November 2022. Florida Republicans gained 44,616 registrations relative to Democrat registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 350,556 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats. Republican registrations were 36.46% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 2.40% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats (click here to view tables and chart).

The old charting for Republican registrations had a goal for Republicans to match the number of Democrat registrations. Since this goal has been met, a new chart showing the gains in registrations since the 2022 general election book closing for Republicans, Democrats, and all others has been created. The number of Republican registration gains (56,767) and the number of those registrations categorized as others (56,949) were so close they appear to be as one line on the chart.

The number of Democrat registration gains (12,151) continues to underperform, and the Republican challenge is to capture more of those voters currently choosing another registration categories.

The most significant factor in politics over the long-term is the relative size of the Democrats’ favoring demographic of those who rent their housing. Democrats, as a political strategy, champion policies which increase the relative numbers of those who cannot escape rental housing.

The allowing of open primaries to determine election outcomes strongly favors those Republican candidates who most align with Democrat and other voters. This becomes problematic when these Republicans are elected and partake in creating policies which relatively grow Democrat favoring demographics, such as the robust Democrat favoring creation of ever more voters who rent their housing.

Transferring Private Property to the Government

The passage of the $50,000,000 bonding authority for Indian River County to purchase environmental lands with 78.21% of the vote is troubling. The huge popularity of the initiative raises an even more troubling question. At what value, would the economically damaging and highly questionable, from an environmental perspective, bonding effort, not have passed ($100,000,000, $250,000,000, $500,000,000, $1,000,000,000)? Thank Goodness the anti-Republican political forces initiating this effort aimed low.

It is worth recalling that 32 pre-emption acts (laws that transferred public property to The People) were foundational to both the Republican Party (The Homestead Act of 1862) and our nation’s prosperity.

Local and State Races

There were five state senate seats (Senate Districts 15, 32, 34, 35, and 37) and 14 state house seats (House Districts 9, 14, 44, 63, 95, 97, 98, 99, 102, 104, 107, 108, 109, and 117) where the Republicans did not field a candidate. After the stunning 2022 Republican election results, hopefully there will be many more Republican interested in contesting these seats in 2024.

The lack of candidates in these races raises a question. Who in the Republican Party has responsibility to see to it that no races are uncontested by Republicans?

School Board, and Other Local Elections

It is common in general elections for voters to skip over the school board election. In IRC Roughly 66,000 votes were cast in the school board election whereas the governor’s race had roughly 77,000 votes cast. The hypothesis is that without party designation, a substantial number of voters choose not to vote to avoid voting for a candidate that does not reflect their views.

In the 2022 Indian River County (IRC) school board elections, history was at least somewhat repeated.

In 2022, a Republican Executive Committee (REC) endorsed candidate lost in a two-candidate primary while receiving 15,256 votes. This election ultimately decided the political orientation of the board’s majority, which did not favor the wishes of the REC.

- The same situation happened in 2020, with the 2020 candidate receiving 15,153 votes.
- The conclusion drawn from this is that the IRC REC has an inadequate strategy to grow market share in primary elections for their endorsed candidate.

- - A typical non-critical review of the situation will blame inadequate campaign efforts for the loss.
  - An honest critique of the effort would suggest that the existing strategy of relying on campaigns is inadequate.
  - A solution that solves many inherent Republican Party problems is to undertake an effort to eliminate the possibility of having elections decided at the primary level.

In 2022, a REC and Governor DeSantis endorsed candidate captured a school board seat with 55.27% of the vote in the general election following a four-candidate primary where no primary candidate received more than the required 50% of the vote.

- The same candidate, not endorsed in 2018, also came out of a four-candidate primary and won the 2018 general election with 55.02% of the vote.
- A .25% gain in vote margin (55.27% vs 55.02%) derived by Gov. DeSantis and REC endorsements, in addition to whatever advantage incumbency bestows upon a candidate, again calls into question the adequacy of strategies that solely rely on campaigns.

It is recommended

- That Republicans pursue changes in election law to make sure elections are never decided at the primary level.
- That School Board elections be partisan

Ripe for a Dilbert Cartoon

If a problem had to be solved, the last people the average Republican voter would turn to are those in the political class.

So where is the national Republican Party turning to solve the riddle of why Republicans did not achieve a widespread “red wave”? Are Republicans turning to Florida, the place where an actual “red wave” took place? No! The Republican political leadership is assembling a national group of Republican political leaders to examine their own efforts. It is not too hard to figure out that the responsibility will probably not be found in a complete lack of Republican interest in growing the Republican base through favorable policy efforts.

If the repercussions of failing to figure out why the Republicans, outside of Florida, did not do as well as expected, the choosing of political people to solve the riddle would be hilarious!