New Premise Poll: President Donald J. Trump Only Republican Beating Biden, Dominating GOP Primary

Mar-a-Lago, FL — A new Premise poll shows president Donald J. Trump holds a decisive lead in the 2024 GOP primary election with 58% of likely Republican primary voters supporting him.

According to the survey, conducted May 12-15, President Trump remains the only GOP candidate who can beat Joe Biden in a general election.

In the general election race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump who would your prefer?

43% President Donald J. Trump (+5)
38% Joe Biden

In a general election race between Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis who would you prefer?

37% Joe Biden (+4)
33% Ron DeSantis

Who do you think the Republican Party should nominate as the party’s candidate for president in 2024?

58% President Donald J. Trump (+37)
21% Ron DeSantis
5% Mike Pence
3% Nikki Haley
1% Vivek Ramaswamy

Trump Leads DeSantis In Our New 2024 Republican Primary Polling Average

Today, FiveThirtyEight is launching our national polling average for the 2024 Republican presidential primary. It shows former President Donald Trump receiving 49.3 percent of the national vote and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has not officially entered the race) receiving 26.2 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential candidate, is at 5.8 percent, while declared candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 4.3 percent.

Some people will say that national primary polls aren’t important because there is no national primary (just a series of state-by-state contests). Others will tell you it’s too early — more than nine months away from the Iowa caucuses — to put much stock in polls. But we think there’s value in a national polling average, even (especially?) this early: According to our research, national primary polls conducted the year before the election are reasonably predictive of the eventual nominee.

Specifically, when candidates are polling above about 30 percent nationally, they have historically had a decent chance of becoming the nominee. That chance increases the higher their polling numbers are. On the flip side, though, candidates with polling below around 20 percent have been pretty unlikely to win, and those polling below 10 percent are usually doomed.

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American Greatness Poll: Trump Leads DeSantis by 21 Percent in New Hampshire

Among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, former President Donald Trump holds a 21-point lead over Governor Ron DeSantis, 39 percent to 18 percent. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is virtually tied with DeSantis for second place, garnering 17 percent of the vote.

Although Sununu is competing with DeSantis for the “not Trump” vote, among those who describe themselves as “very likely” voters, DeSantis leads Sununu by six points, 19 percent to 13 percent. Trump leads both men among these voters with 45%.

New Hampshire GOP voters prefer Trump over DeSantis to improve the economy (+41 percent) and oppose far-left progressives (+19 percent). Voters also say that Trump cares about their needs and concerns more than DeSantis by a 17-point margin.

The top issues for New Hampshire GOP primary voters are border security (22 percent), liberal politicians in D.C. (21 percent), and taxes/cost of living (16 percent.)

The poll from National Research Inc. and commissioned by American Greatness surveyed 500 likely Republican primary voters in the state of New Hampshire using live telephone interviews (landline and cell) and text-to-online.

The survey was conducted on May 15-17. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent.

Read more.

2024 Presidential Election Polls

Last Updated on May 17, 6:4 PM ET

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©2023 Dr. Rich Swier. All rights reserved.

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