Note: The registrations numbers in this writing refer to active registrations, a subset of total registrations.
Note: The Republican Party of Florida, at least occasionally, has issued their own monthly registrations report and their numbers usually differ only slightly from the numbers presented in this report. The numbers for this report are generated from those numbers listed on the various Supervisor of Elections (SOE) websites after business hours on the last day of the month, with the exception of some counties who post their registration numbers monthly (an example of a county which posts a monthly number is Miami-Dade County).
Some, perhaps most, counties which post their numbers as being up to date, are likely to be at least a day behind in their postings. The difference in registration reports is usually small, and since this report is consistent in the manner in which the numbers are collected, the immediacy of the report is thought to be more important than the normal minor differences that exist in the date of data collection. Also owing to immediacy, if updated numbers are not available by noon of the third business day of the month, the county will have an asterisk by their name in the tables, and the numbers for the county will be the numbers from the prior month.
Last month, the normal small difference in the two reports was fairly large owing to Palm Beach and Sarasota Counties, which had significant differences in the number that was posted on their website on the last day of the month, and the official number reported to the state. This large change is believed to be caused by the adjustments being made by the change in law instituted to more easily move voters to the inactive voter status (see note below).
Florida Republicans continue the trend of making relative gains in active voter registrations as Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations increased by 36,058 registrations in November and by 386,718 registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 692,668 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats. Republican registrations were 38.09% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 5.12% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats (click here to view tables).
The Democrats lost 50,736 additional registrations in November, 509,285 registrations since the 2022 book closing, and 841,210 registrations since the 2020 election. The Republican registrations decreased by 14,678 in November, and the number of registrations which are neither Republican nor Democrat decreased by 49,751 registrations in November (click here to view the charts).
Note: There have been some relatively large shrinkages in the number of registrations in Florida Counties. The law was changed to make it easier to shift voters into the inactive voter category, a category where the process of removing voters from the voter rolls is initiated. The decreases in the number of registrations should end when the supervisors of elections complete the job of making the transfers in accordance with the new measures.
The Year in Review
The intent of this report is to provide information to operatives so they can monitor their efforts to grow the Republican share of the vote, which between elections may be the best measured by changes in voter registrations. Of interest is that none of the recommendations made in this report over the past year have been implemented, and as far as what is known, the recommendations are not even being considered for implementation. The Republican political class appears content with the status quo at the local, state, and national level.
What is the Republican status quo? The Republican status quo (RSQ) consists entirely of campaign efforts, of which there are four pillars: candidate, money, message, and voter turnout. The RSQ does not take the underlying political orientation of an electorate, the most significant election factor in nearly every state, into consideration. The pillars of the RSQ only matter when the underlying political orientation of an election district is somewhat neutral.
The RSQ believes Republican candidates in California (where Republicans captured 12 of 52 (23%) national congressional seats in 2022) have the same chance of Republicans winning elections as they have in Florida (where Republicans captured 20 of 28 (71%) national congressional in 2022). The RSQ is total nonsense.
In the 2022 Florida general election there were five state senate seats, and 14 state house seats where Republicans did not field candidates. If elections depend on a simple yet potent formula: candidates, messaging, money, and voter turnout, and not about the underlying political orientations, then why were there no Republicans candidates in these races?
The RSQ needs to change! Republicans should be actively working to positively change the underlying political orientation of election districts.
Republicans limiting themselves to the RSQ has defied explanation, but current gender confusion may provide some clarity. Some people believe that gender identity should be up to the individual to decide. In this line of thinking, biological males may identify as females and biological females may identify as males.
What does gender confusion have to do with political strategy? There exists political confusion in the Republican Party. The Republican Party may identify as a political party. Republicans can deeply believe the Republican Party is a political party. Without strategies to change the underlying political orientation of electorates, the Republican party is not a political party, the Republican Party is a campaign organization.
The Republican presidential candidate carried 49 states in 1984, 30 states in 2000, and 25 states in 2020. The pool of states where the underlying political orientation favors Republicans, or where the underlying political orientation is neutral enough for Republicans to win, has shrunk to a critical level. This is no time to let sleeping dogs lie.
The California/Florida Conundrum
The Democrat takeover of California should have led to the Republicans adopting new strategies, but the takeover has led to no such thing. Democrats have totally outfoxed, and continue to outfox, Republicans. For Republicans not to adopt strategies that positively change the underlying political orientations of electorates is political malpractice.
One way for Democrats to politically prosper is to corrupt real estate markets. Corrupted real estate market results in increased home prices, forcing a higher percentage of voters to rent. Renters vote Democrat at a much higher rate than homeowners vote Republican, and therefore Democrats make outsized political gains by marginally raising the rates of rentership.
Perhaps owing to Republican voters generally gaining financially from having corrupted real estate markets, the gains in wealth arising from higher home values, there has been little or no political opposition by Republicans to the corruption of the real estate markets.
Comparing 2022 congressional races in California and Florida demonstrates the dynamism of the Democrat strategy of corrupting real estate markets. California Democrats captured a super majority (40 of 52, 77%) of 2022 California national congressional races while in Florida Republicans captured a super-majority (20 of 28, 71%) of 2022 Florida national congressional races. Housing is the difference!
The various housing metrics are as follows. California national congressional districts captured by Republicans had an average rentership rates of 34.24%, slightly higher than the 30.15% rate found in Florida congressional districts captured by Republican congressmen. California congressional districts captured by the Democrats had an average rentership rate of 46.95%, 12.71% higher than the average California districts captured by Republican congressmen. Florida congressional districts captured by Democrats had an average rentership rate of 39.98%, 9.83% higher than the average Florida districts captured by Republican congressmen.
The average rentership rate of California national congressional districts captured by Democrats was roughly 7% higher than the average rentership rate found in Florida national congressional seats held by Democrats. Most of this difference between the rentership rates in California and Florida Democrat districts was owing to California having districts where the rentership rates were exceedingly high such as 61.85% (CD42, Congressman Robert Garcia), 62.27% (CD11, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi), 67.56% (CD30, Congressman Adam Schiff), 69.04% (CD37, Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove), and 77.09% (CD34, Congressman Jimmy Gomez) skewing their average to be higher. The highest rentership rate found in a Florida congressional district (CD24, Frederica Wilson) was 50.62%.
California has a higher overall statewide rentership rate of 44.5% and a super-majority Democrat congressional delegation compared to Florida’s overall 33.5% statewide rentership rate and super-majority Republican congressional delegation.
Republican success in Florida has not been obtained by purposefully adopting policies that lead to lessening of the rentership rate, it is owing to Florida not being as bad as California.
Given these numbers, and assuming Republicans wish to win elections, why isn’t there a Republican Party effort to improve Republican chances of winning elections by positively changing the underlying political orientation of electorates?
The Anti-Conservative Republican Primary System
Florida has a primary election law that often leads to the election of the most liberal Republican candidates in local elections. The pool of local politicians is often the source of candidates for higher office. This leads to Republican office holders who are generally much more liberal than the Republican Party as a whole. This is a problem owing to liberal Republican politicians tend to support policies that tend to change the underlying political orientation of an election district to become more Democrat.
The item at the primary level that is so troublesome for Florida Republican conservatives is the universal primary. A universal primary is required when there are only candidates from one political party in the election. In this case, the normally closed primary, a primary where only registered members of the party may vote, becomes universal, allowing all registered voters, regardless of a voter’s party registration designation, to vote. Since the voter pool of the entire electorate is more liberal than is the pool of registered Republican voters, the winner of a universal primary, awarded the office at the primary level, is likely to be the most liberal Republican in the race.
There is little stopping a Democrat candidate from reregistering as a Republican and becoming a Republican candidate. A Democrat strategy in areas that are heavily Republican is to have their candidates do just that, and to not enter a candidate in the primary. The crazy Florida primary system favors the election of these Democrats, turned Republicans, to win. Since the system is full of Republicans who were elected in this crazy system, that is no political will to change the law.
I have, who I would refer to as a political friend, who became disenchanted with the Republican Party, and joined the Constitution Party. Republicans should be actively trying to get the Constitution Party candidates to enter primary elections. This would put a halt to the Democrat strategy of winning the local elections by running their candidates as Republicans.
Please join the efforts to positively change underlying political orientations of election districts to build support for The U.S. Constitution, and by extension, the Republican Party!
©2023. Steve Meyer. All rights reserved.