Arizona Poll: Voters 50+, Especially Women, Could Tip the Scales in 2024

Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden among older voters; Senate race is neck-and-neck between Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake. 


PHOENIX, AZ /PRNewswire/ — Today, AARP Arizona released a 2024 statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Arizonans ages 50 and older. Seventy-eight percent of voters ages 50+ report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (74%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (67%), and the cost of housing and utilities (both at 65%).

Arizonans ages 50+ will be key to determining who wins in November. This voting bloc makes up an outsized portion of the electorate: in the 2020 elections, older voters accounted for 55% of all Arizona voters and in the 2022 mid-terms, they made up 64% of the state’s voters. Eighty-six percent of voters ages 50+ say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, compared to 66% of voters ages 18-49 who say the same.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads President Joe Biden (D) by 8 percentage points among voters ages 18 and older – 45% to 37%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 11%. Trump’s lead is greater among voters ages 50 and older, at 49% – 39%. However, among women voters 50+, the candidates are tied. President Biden leads among older Hispanic voters, 48% – 37%.

Representative Ruben Gallego (D) holds a narrow lead over Kari Lake (R), 48% to 45%, in the U.S. Senate race among voters overall. Among voters 50 and older the candidates are almost even, with 48% of voters favoring Lake and 47% preferring Gallego. The gender gap among voters 50+ is significant, with women supporting Gallego by 12 percentage points and men preferring Lake by 15 points. Rep. Gallego leads among Hispanic voters 50+, 62% – 36%. Arizona voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc that could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Dana Kennedy, State Director, AARP Arizona. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”

Other key takeaways from the poll include:

  • Immigration and border security (41%) is the most important issue to voters ages 50 and older when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (28%), and threats to democracy (27%).
  • Fifty-four percent of these voters cite personal economic issues — inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security — as the most important issues. Notably, Trump is leading Biden (60%-27%) among older voters who prioritize this group of issues.
  • A significant majority (68%) of Arizona residents ages 50 and older think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Fifty-eight percent of older voters say they are worried about their personal financial situation.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research to conduct this survey. The firms interviewed 1,358 likely Arizona voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, with an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 288 likely Hispanic voters age 50 and older, between May 28-June 4, 2024. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web. The margin of sampling error for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Hispanic voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/AZpolling.

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Arizona, visit aarp.org/AZVotes.

About AARP

AARP is the nation’s largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation’s largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.

©2024. All rights reserved.

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