Iran is No Longer a Majority-Muslim Country

An online survey about the religious beliefs of Iranians, with replies given anonymously so as to prevent any possible retribution, was conducted several years ago in the Islamic Republic.

In June 2020, our research institute, the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in IRAN (GAMAAN), conducted an online survey with the collaboration of Ladan Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran.

The results verify Iranian society’s unprecedented secularisation.

Iran’s census claims that 99.5% of the population are Muslim, a figure that hides the state’s active hostility toward irreligiosity, conversion, and unrecognised religious minorities.

Iranians live with an ever-present fear of retribution for speaking against the state. In Iran, one cannot simply call people or knock on doors seeking answers to politically sensitive questions. That’s why the anonymity of digital surveys offers an opportunity to capture what Iranians really think about religion.

Our results reveal dramatic changes in Iranian religiosity, with an increase in secularisation and a diversity of faiths and beliefs. Compared with Iran’s 99.5% census figure, we found that only 40% identified as Muslim.

So Iran, for the first time in more than 1,200 years, is no longer a majority-Muslim country. And just before the Islamic Revolution 80% of Iranians described themselves as very devout. That percentage has been slashed in half. But even among those 40%, who identify as Muslims, as we shall see, many are not Believers but only “cultural Muslims.”

In contrast with state propaganda that portrays Iran as a Shia nation, only 32% explicitly identified as such, while 5% said they were Sunni Muslim and 3% Sufi Muslim. Another 9% said they were atheists, along with 7% who prefer the label of spirituality. Among the other selected religions, 8% said they were Zoroastrians – which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam, rather than strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith – while 1.5% said they were Christian.

The opinion takers’ observation that Zoroastrianism is adopted not so much because of the contents of the faith, but as a symbol of disaffection with Islam and of a desire to reclaim the quintessential Persian pre-Islamic faith, is convincing. Nationalism, not deep religious belief, surely explains the nearly 10% of Iranians who now identify with Zoroastrianism.

Most Iranians, 78%, believe in God, but only 37% believe in life after death and only 30% believe in heaven and hell.

In Iran, 22% of the people are now atheists. Worse still for the mullahs, while 40% of Iranians claim to be Muslims, only 30% believe in a central tenet of Islam – the existence of paradise and hell, which could be interpreted to mean that only 30% are true Muslims. The 10% who do not believe in heaven and hell, but claim to be Muslims, are not true Believers, but “cultural Muslims,” a category which has more to do with filial piety — the tug of affection for their devout parents, with fond memories of family iftar dinners, and the deep religiosity of other relatives or friends whom they cannot emulate but still respect. If so, then it would make sense to conclude that only 30% of Iranians are Muslim believers.

These numbers demonstrate that a general process of secularisation, known to encourage religious diversity, is taking place in Iran. An overwhelming majority, 90%, described themselves as hailing from believing or practising religious families. Yet 47% reported losing their religion in their lifetime, and 6% said they changed from one religious orientation to another. Younger people reported higher levels of irreligiosity and conversion to Christianity than older respondents….

Almost half of the children of devout parents in Iran report they have lost their religion. It’s not surprising, given how monstrous the theocracy has become. The Iranian clerics have done more to discredit Islam than any Infidel propaganda could possibly accomplish. They hang homosexuals from cranes, execute political dissenters on trumped-up charges (such as the wrestler Navid Afkari), murder inoffensive members of the Iranian emigration who had been opponents of the Shah (such as Shahpur Bakhtiar, killed in Paris by agents of the Islamic Republic), punish anyone who defends opposition figures (Nasrin Soutoudeh, a female lawyer, was sentenced to 38 years in prison).

The venality of the clerics is also well-known, and has contributed further to the disenchantment with Islam. A long investigation by Reuters revealed what many Iranians suspected. Their Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has amassed a business empire worth $95 billion, far more than the Shah of Iran’s fortune.

80% of Iranians were very devout before the Islamic Revolution, but there has been a drastic decline, with 60% now reporting that they do not perform the required daily prayers, nor observe Ramadan, meaning that 40%, at most, can still be considered devout.

We found that societal secularisation was also linked to a critical view of the religious governance system: 68% agreed that religious prescriptions should be excluded from legislation, even if believers hold a parliamentary majority, and 72% opposed the law mandating all women wear the hijab, the Islamic veil….

In other words, in a regime that is based on the idea of the Muslim jurist as ruler, and Islam as the only basis for legislation, now more than two-thirds of Iranians utterly reject that very idea: 68% say that religious commands (“prescriptions”) should be excluded as a basis for legislation.

Other research on population growth, whose decline has been linked to higher levels of secularisation, also suggests a decline in religiosity in Iran. In 2020, Iran recorded its lowest population growth, below 1%.

Is the steep decline in Iranian fertility rates not an oblique comment on younger Iranians’ disaffection with the clerical regime? Those who choose not to have children, or have fewer than the replacement level (2.1) are making a statement, signaling that they don’t have much faith in the country’s future. They see on the horizon only the continuation of religious despotism, with the mismanagement, corruption, cruelty, venality, and hypocrisy of the clerical rulers.

The Internet makes it almost impossible for the Iranian regime to prevent those they rule over from finding out what is going on in the world, including in Iran itself. The Iranians learn about American sanctions, about successful attacks on Iran’s nuclear project and other targets, find out about the catastrophic economic condition their country is in, discover the staggering net worth of their rulers – in short, the kind of news that once could be kept from being widely known, when the only sources of information were government-controlled newspapers, radio stations, and television networks. The Internet has made all of this information accessible with a few clicks.

When the Iranian regime finally collapses, we will be able see for ourselves what has been reported by the anonymous participants in these surveys. From 80% believers just before the Islamic Revolution, to 40% — or rather, 30% (with another 10% calling themselves only “cultural Muslims”) — today, its been a decline in belief unparalleled in Iranian, or Islamic, history. We have Ayatollahs Khomenei, and Khameini, and their equally cruel epigones, to thank for freeing so many Iranians — though it was hardly intended — from the mind-forged manacles of Islam. By their savage misrule they have accomplished what no collection of proselytizing Infidels could have managed to achieve. For this relief, ayatollahs, much thanks.

AUTHOR