October AEI Housing Finance Watch Indicates an Unhealthy Market

Housing Finance Watch: Active Listings Continue to Trend Higher But Remain Below their 2018-2019 Levels, Indicating an Unhealthy Market

By Edward J. Pinto | Tobias Peter | Sissi Li

October 23, 2024

Key takeaways:

• The median purchase rate increased from 6.25% to 6.38% in week 41, 2024.
• According to Mortgage News Daily, the avg. 30-year rate was 6.85% on Oct. 22^nd.
• Purchase volume was down 43% from the same week in 2019, and up 4% YoY, with volume slowing somewhat with increasing rates.
• Preliminary YoY HPA was 4.2% in September 2024. It is projected to be 4.4% and 4.6% for Oct. 2024 and the first three weeks of Nov. 2024, respectively.
• Despite subdued purchase activity and relatively high rates, YoY HPA remains strong, largely due to buyers being well-qualified.
• Our base HPA projection calls for y-o-y HPA of +5% and +5.5% by year-end 2024 and 2025 respectively.

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