Israel, Iran, and the ‘Military Option’

While Israel has had its hands full, and its attention focused, on fighting Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and on “demilitarizing” Syria by destroying all the weaponry that Bashar Assad’s army had accumulated, it has at the same time been monitoring Tehran’s race to acquire nuclear weapons. The news is alarming. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that since December, there has been a “dramatic increase” in the amount of uranium enriched to 60%, or just below weapons-grade, in Iran. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar now says that despite the new and crippling sanctions on Iran just imposed by the Trump administration, economic collapse may not be enough to halt Iran’s nuclear program, and a “military option” must remain on the table. More on Sa’ar’s warning can be found here: “‘Military option’ on table to halt Tehran’s nuclear threat, Sa’ar warns,” Jerusalem Post, February 26, 2025:

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said that Israel was looking to US President Donald Trump to pressure Iran into ending its efforts to gain nuclear weapons, warning that a “military option” may still be required, in an interview with Politico published on Wednesday.

Sa’ar warned that time was running out to prevent Tehran from accessing nuclear weapons, and the Islamic regime had already enriched uranium capable of producing a “couple of bombs.” If efforts to stop the regime do not succeed, it would trigger a “nuclear race in the Middle East with Egypt, Saudis, Turkey,” he said….

Iran is racing to enrich more uranium to weapons-grade level. Already, according to Sa’ar, Iran has already enough weapons-grade uranium for several bombs. A nuclear Iran is a threat to Israel, and to peace and stability in the region, in several ways. First, given the chiliastic beliefs of the fanatical mullahs in Tehran, waiting for the Hidden Imam to appear, they might be willing to bomb Israel despite the nuclear response that such an attack would trigger. Second, a nuclear Iran could threaten all of its Arab neighbors in the region, bending them to its will, forcing some countries to shut down American bases, or to modify their oil production and pricing according to Iranian demands. Third, by acquiring a nuclear arsenal, Iran could set off an arms race in the region, with Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia — according to Sa’ar — being the most likely entrants. All three of those countries are hostile to the Jewish state.

Sa’ar noted that Tehran had already dedicated a number of resources to destabilizing the region, noting Iran had already trafficked weapons and money into the West Bank.

That’s not the half of it. Tehran has sent weapons and money to Hamas in Gaza. It has sent money and weapons, including a huge arsenal originally consisting of 150,000 rockets and missiles (the Israelis have now reduced those numbers by 80%) to Hezbollah in Lebanon. With such a storehouse, the terror group has been able since October 8, 2023 to launch more than 12,000 rockets from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. The weapons and money supplied by Iran have also allowed Hezbollah to become the most powerful military force in Lebanon, far stronger than the Lebanese National Army, and thus able as well to become the dominant political force in the country. Iran has sent money and missiles to the Houthis in Yemen, allowing them both to disrupt world shipping, and to attack Saudi oilfields.

Meanwhile, the IDF has been planning for years on ways to stop, with violence if necessary, Iran’s nuclear program. Its attack on Iran on October 26, 2024, which destroyed Iran’s aerial defenses, including four S-300 anti-missile systems supplied by Russia, have left Iran wide open to attack by the IAF. On the same day, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) also destroyed the plant that manufactures fuel for Iran’s ballistic missiles, and blew up a secret nuclear research facility at Parchin. As a result of those air attacks on October 26, Iran is now more vulnerable to attacks from the air, whether by planes, missiles, rockets, or drones, than at any time since the beginning of the Islamic Republic. Iran has promised to exact a terrible revenge on Israel, but more than two months have passed, and the Iranians have yet to do anything.

Will the Americans join Israel in an attack on Iran? President Trump has said he doesn’t want to involve American soldiers in foreign wars. The long-drawn-out fiascos of Afghanistan and Iraq, that lasted for twenty years and almost nine years, respectively, have made him wary of further follies. But the Israelis can point out that in the case of Iran’s nuclear program, there would be no need for a single American soldier to be on the ground. America would only need to bomb nuclear sites from the air, focusing on those sites that are deep underground, as at Natanz, or buried deep inside a mountain, as at Fordow. Furthermore, unlike the wars America conducted in Afghanistan and Iraq, each of which lasted longer than any other wars in American history, a campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites could be over after only a few days of bombing.

Trump, however, is more likely to give Israel the wherewithal in weaponry so that the Jewish state could go it alone, which means those 30,0000-pound bunker-buster bombs, as well as the bombers big enough to carry such heavy weapons. Afterwards, once the Israeli attack has been successfully completed, If true to form, Trump will want to tell the world something like this: “I told Bibi to open the gates of hell. Iran has been playing all of us long enough. We needed to stop that nuclear program. I gave them whatever they needed, whatever the Israelis needed. And not a single one of our soldiers had to fight. I did good. You can see the results.”

“Whatever the Israelis needed” would be a reference to the 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs that America has in its arsenal, but Israel until now still does not. Such MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrators) would be needed to destroy the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Will it come to that? Yes, the Iranians are determined to acquire nuclear weapons, and both the Little Satan, Israel, and the Great Satan, America, are even more determined to prevent that from happening. Iran’s headlong rush leaves Israel and America, or Israel alone, with no choice but bombs aweigh.

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