We Win, They Lose

Ronald Reagan was asked by one of his advisors early on in his presidency to outline his strategy toward the Cold War with the Soviet Union.

It’s simple, he replied. “We win, they lose.”

That is also Donald Trump’s strategy when it comes to Communist China.

During the early days of Covid, the Chinese publicly floated the idea of cutting off the supply of pharmaceutical precursors to the United States, knowing full well that such an action could cost millions of American lives. And they did that when our two nations were at peace.

Imagine for an instant if, God forbid, the United States and China were engaged in a shooting war over Taiwan. It wouldn’t be just pharmaceuticals they would cut off, but the computer chips that guide our smart munitions, the strategic minerals we use in our bombs, and much more.

Through laziness and greed, we have become utterly dependent on Communist China to supply us with basic necessities at a lower cost than we can produce them in the United States. As I wrote in this space last week, Donald Trump saw that vulnerability, and is seeking to correct it through tariffs.

And guess what? Trump actually holds all the good cards. China’s $300 billion annual trade surplus with the United States is vital to the Chinese economy. Chinese business publications this week were full of stories of the catastrophic effect of the new US tariffs on their exports.

Even the lithium battery industry, which the Chinese dominate world wide, would be decimated. Trump’s new tariffs “will lead to a significant decline in the price competitiveness of China’s lithium power battery products in the US, shrinking profits for export enterprises, and forcing some companies to accelerate the adjustment of their overseas market strategies,” one such publication conservatively projected.

Without the US market, Chinese auto-parts manufacturers will close factories. Apple will accelerate the construction of its new iPhone and iPad factories in the United States. Millions of Chinese workers will find themselves out of work.

And then? The prospect of major economic hardship, brought about by the actions of Chinese President Xi, will enrage other Chinese leaders, not just the population. President Xi’s days could very well be numbered.

The administration is engaged in two other sets of negotiations at the same time the tariff and trade deals are hatching. And the same person, Steve Witcoff, is leading both.

On Friday, Witcoff flew off to Saint Petersburg, Russia, for previously unannounced talks with Putin. It was the third time the two have met.

President Trump has expressed frustration at what he sees as Putin’s obstinate refusal to agree to a ceasefire, and so Witcoff came armed with a menu of potential US actions aimed at making Putin more amenable to ending the killing.

But there is a Ukraine wildcard in the negotiation as well, and it’s a killer — literally.

The Department of Justice filed a motion this week in the case against Ryan Routh, alleging that Trump’s would-be assassin had contacted someone in Ukraine asking to buy a Stinger or an RPG, in order to take down Donald Trump’s campaign jet. “[Trump] is not good for Ukraine,” Routh texted his correspondent on an encrypted messaging app.

Prosecutors did not name the Ukrainian, or indicate whether he was at all connected to the Ukrainian government. What if he was just a private citizen Routh had met while in Ukraine in 2022 but Ukrainian intelligence got wind of the plot and declined to inform the United States? The implications of this new information go way beyond the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

From St. Petersburg, Witcoff flies to Oman for negotiations with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Trump said publicly during his Oval Office meeting with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the two would hold “direct” talks.

The Iranians said, no, they would talk through intermediaries.

That is the first red flag.

Witcoff recently admitted that he got “duped” by Hamas during negotiations in Qatar with Hamas-appointed Arab mediators over the latest hostage release.

Having worked in the Middle East as a war correspondent and investigative reporter for forty years, let me say this straight: if Arab negotiators managed to dupe Mr. Witcoff, the Iranians are going to take him to the cleaners.

Rule #1 in negotiating with the Iranians: always be prepared to walk out. 

The Iranians invariably win at negotiations because the other party wants the deal more than they do. That’s what happened to John Kerry when he “negotiated” the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. Three times he thought he had a deal, and three times his Iranian counterpart agreed.

But, he added, just let me fly back over the weekend to Tehran to run it by the Supreme Leader.

Each time, the Ayatollah — surely laughing like a magpie at Kerry’s idiocy — upped the ante with new and increasingly outrageous demands. And each time, Kerry agreed.

The Iranians love to talk about the size and shape of the table. And the participants. And the intermediaries. Mr. Witcoff must make clear that neither he nor the president finds their games amusing.

They get one shot at this. If they keep their foreign minister in an adjacent suite while the Omanis transmit messages back and forth, Mr. Witcoff should walk out. If they want negotiations to continue, they can crawl back.

And remember this: these negotiations are not about returning to the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump has called the “worst deal ever negotiated.” They are about dismantling Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure.

Mr. Witcoff must understand that and hold firm. The Iranians will squeal. They will complain. They will accuse us of behaving like a hegemon, depriving them of their “rights” to conduct nuclear research.

Let them. Because if they do not agree to Mr. Trump’s terms they won’t be squealing at all, at least, not for long.

There are now six B-2 “Spirit” stealth bombers stationed on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean with 30,000 bunker-busting bombs with the names of buried Iranian nuclear plants on them.

That’s called, holding all the cards.

I discuss this, and the blowback of the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis, in this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend. As always, you can listen live at 1 PM on Saturday on 104.9 FM or 550 AM, or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. If you miss us live, tune into the podcast here.

Yours in freedom.

©2025 Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.

Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. 

Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here.