What are the chances of the next pope being conservative … like truly conservative?

Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea and Cardinal Raymond Burke of the U.S. best fit the bill, but what are their chances of getting the needed votes? 

Following the death of Pope Francis on Monday, the internet was aflame with speculation about his potential successors. One of the names to pop up as a favorite in conservative circles was Cardinal Robert Sarah, who comes from the African country of Guinea (pictured above).

After enduring 12 years of persecution and doctrinally bizarre statements from the first Jesuit pope, the Marxist Pope Francis, many traditionalist Catholics have expressed a desire for an “anti-woke Pope,” and Cardinal Sarah certainly fit the bill.

He has consistently stood firm in opposition to same-sex marriage, gender ideology, Western secularism, the threat of Islam, and the impact of uncontrolled migration on European culture and values.

Before the pope’s death, many Catholic conservatives considered Cardinal Sarah an unlikely choice because of his outspoken conservative views. His age, at 79, could also work against him, although there is some truth to the saying “young cardinals vote for old popes.”

But the biggest reason why a conservative like Cardinal Sarah will likely not emerge as the next pope is because the deck has already been stacked against him.

Elizabeth Yore, an attorney, international child advocate and close follower of Vatican politics, told me in the wake of Francis’s death that getting a real conservative as the next pope will be a tall task.

“He (Francis) has packed the conclave,” she said. “There are very few conservative cardinals and they won’t have the votes.”

Here’s the bottom line: Francis made sure he will not be succeeded in the papacy by anything but another liberal. Even if the eventual choice is portrayed in the media as a “moderate” or “moderately conservative,” perhaps someone like Cardinal Pizzaballa of Jerusalem, don’t believe it. You can bet your last dollar he will not be a true conservative like Cardinal Sarah of Guinea or Cardinal Raymond Burke of the United States.

In fact, betting sites have only given Sarah a 2% chance of being elected. Burke, less than that.

An unattributed video interview featuring Cardinal Sarah discussing the threats posed by unfettered migration into Europe began circulating on social media within hours of the Pope’s passing.

When asked what concerns him, Sarah immediately responds with his view of a fading Europe, which he said seems to no longer be interested in practicing, preserving or defending its Christian heritage. He states:

“It has lost its roots. A tree without roots, it dies. And I’m afraid the West is dying. You see plenty of signs. No more nationality. You are invaded, still by other cultures, other peoples, which will progressively dominate you by their numbers, and completely change your culture, your convictions, your values.”

In another video, Cardinal Sarah is heard saying that you cannot vote for a pro-abortion politician and call yourself a Catholic.

That’s not the language of the woke Vatican, nor is it the type of message that the woke global media wants to hear. So it would take a miracle for two-thirds of the mostly woke Conclave of Cardinals to cast their votes for a conservative cardinal from Africa.

©2025 Leo Hohmann. All rights reserved.

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