Putin Pushes The Limits

Just when you thought the Ukraine war couldn’t get much worse, Putin this week sent 19 drones into Poland in an apparent test of NATO’s resolve.

The Poles immediately invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This is not Article 5, the mutual defense clause, but a call for consultations and analysis. In another words, one step before war.

What was Russia’s intent? What should be NATO’s response? So far, we don’t have answers to either question.

But what we saw with Poland’s immediate response – which was to scramble F-16 and F-35 jets – was the total mismatch between existing NATO capabilities and the threat posed by the cheap Iranian-designed drones Russia sent across the border.

Even worse: the NATO jets only shot down three, possibly four, of the nineteen Russian drones. Many of the others hit houses and caused the Poles to temporarily shut down four airports in the eastern part of the country.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russian attack “brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”

The Ukrainians get hit with massive barrages of Russian drones – hundreds at a time – and yet manage to shoot down 80% to 90% of them. Here’s another case where NATO has something to learn from the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainians have become adept at designing “counter-drone” drones, or “interceptor” drones that fly faster than the Iranian-designed kamikaze drones Russia is using. Ukrainian drone pilots have a ten to fifteen minute window in which they can intercept the invaders and either fly into them, shoot them down, or explode next to them.

Ukraine has been churning out its interceptor drones in massive quantities, and they cost somewhere between $1000 and $5000, a far cry from the $4 million per Patriot missile that NATO currently uses.

But is Putin getting ready to invade Poland? On Friday, the Russian and Belarus armed forces began Zaped 5 military exercises near the Polish border.

Zaped, which means “West,” was designed to demonstrate Russian capabilities against NATO. In October 2021, the Russians and Belorussians fielded 200,000 troops for these exercises — and finished off with an actual invasion of Ukraine.

Early reports this year, however, suggest they can barely field 8,000 troops, given how much of the Russian military is tied down in eastern Ukraine. So my guess is that Putin is employing a “low cost” field test of NATO defenses, both with the drone attacks on Poland and these latest exercises.

Again, how will NATO respond? So far, we don’t know.

This past week, of course, was not just the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks but was darkened even further by the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Like many of you, I am still ill a state of shock.

I had met Charlie early on in his career through David Horowitz, who was always on the look-out for young conservatives to promote. Even at eighteen or twenty, Charlie was impressive for his intellect, his energy, and his personality, always eager to engage.

He lived for dialogue and for his faith. His murderer tried to shut down dialogue and denied that faith.

When Utah Governor Spencer Cox announced the arrest of his murderer on Friday morning, he said Charlie’s death could be a turning point in our history. Either it will shock us into listening to our better angels and to start talking to one another, or it will further divide us. So far, that direction is unclear.

I discuss this, as well as the Iranian-backed Muslim Brotherhood expansion in Sudan, on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend.

As always, you can listen live at 1 PM on Saturday in the Jacksonville, Florida area on 104.9 FM or 550 AM or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. You can listen later to the podcast here.

Yours in freedom.

©2025 Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.

Ken’s website: kentimmerman.com

Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. 

Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here.