U.S. and Iran Are Heading for the Last Round-Up

Iranian negotiators have made clear to the Trump administration that while Iran is willing to discuss possible limits to its nuclear programs, it will not discuss the other items that the Americans demand be considered, including ending Iran’s ballistic missile discussion, its support for proxies, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, and its murderous response to the millions of protesters who recently turned out in cities across Iran to shout “Death to the Dictator.”

Meanwhile, Israel watches in dismay as the Americans seem willing to continue negotiating with Tehran, even after it has said it will only negotiate on the nuclear issue. More on that Israeli alarm, and the possible unilateral action by Israel to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile threat, can be found here: “Israel warns Trump: We may act alone if Iran crosses ballistic missile red line,” by Avi Ashkenazi, Jerusalem Post, February 8, 2026:

Israeli defense officials recently told their US counterparts that Iran’s ballistic missile program represents an existential threat, and that Jerusalem is prepared to act unilaterally if necessary.

According to security sources, Israeli intentions to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities and production infrastructure were conveyed in recent weeks through a series of high-level exchanges. Military officials outlined operational concepts to degrade the program, including strikes on key manufacturing sites.

In early February, both the head of the IDF, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, and the new Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General. Omer Tishler, visited Washington D.C. to meet with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine, to discuss operational plans regarding Iran.

“We told the Americans we will strike alone if Iran crosses the red line we set on ballistic missiles,” the source said, adding that Israel is not yet at that threshold but is continuously tracking developments inside Iran.

The officials stressed that Israel reserves freedom of action and emphasized that it will not allow Iran to restore strategic weapon systems on a scale that threatens Israel’s existence.

One defense official described the current moment as a “historic opportunity” to deliver a significant blow to Iran’s missile infrastructure and neutralize active threats to Israel and neighboring states.

During recent talks, Israel also presented plans to target additional facilities connected to the missile program, according to the official.

It is not just Iran’s remaining store of ballistic missiles that the Israelis plan to target, but also the plants, spread across Iran, where they are being manufactured.

The worry in Israel is that Trump will be satisfied with hitting just a few targets — say, some Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders and their military bases — without engaging in the kind of sustained bombing campaign that would put paid to the ballistic missile program, which is Israel’s chief worry at this time. Trump will then take a victory lap, claim “total victory,” as he did last June when he declared, much too optimistically, that the one-day bombing by American planes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and “set it back for many years,” but some ballistic missiles may remain intact in tunnel hideouts, and some of the plants that manufacture those missiles might also escape destruction. This would be an unacceptable result for Israel, which would find itself compelled to finish the job by itself.

With both the Prime Minister and the Israeli Air Force Commander arriving in Washington, just a few weeks after Zamir had been in discussions with Caine, it is likely that a failure by Iran to respond favorably to America’s three demands will lead to a “kinetic” response. But what will be on the target list? The IRGC commanders? The command-and-control centers of both the IRGC and the Iranian army? The supreme leader, whose death will so hearten the protesters that millions more will appear in the streets of cities across Iran? How long will it take the Americans to harden their bases around the region, the very bases that Iran has threatened it will strike in response to any American attack? And will such an attack include both American and Israeli forces, or will the Americans want the Israelis to hold back?

In Iran, what’s to come still unsure, but as Shakespeare famously counseled, “in delay there lies no plenty.”

So we are left anent Iran the Famous Five Questions for study and discussion: Quis? Quid? Quibus auxiliis? Cur? Quomodo? Quando?

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