Will The Ceasefire Hold?

The Iranian regime seems not to have taken the measure of Donald Trump, even after 39 days of war. They appear to believe he is just another John Kerry or Barack Obama or Joe Biden, who can be intimidated into making every concession they can imagine.

Kerry showed us again on Thursday night, in an interview with his former staffer Jen Psaki on MSNBC, just how bad he was as Secretary of State.

While berating Trump for rushed negotiations with the Iranians before going to war, he reminded us that “we took four years” to get to the failed 2015 nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, as if the foot-dragging and unending concessions were a virtue.

The Iranians need to understand that JD Vance, who is leading the US negotiating team, is their best shot at getting any sort of deal with the United States that leaves the regime intact.

As he was departing for Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday, Vance told reporters he was hoping for a “positive outcome” to the talks. But he also warned Iran not to try to play him.

My money is on the Iranian team ignoring that warning.

Since Iran began negotiating with the International Atomic Energy Agency in the late 1990s, they have lied, cheated, and delayed. And when they got caught cheating, they just smirked and cheated some more.

The United States has three non-negotiables going into these talks: Iran can not enrich uranium, Iran must give up its stockpile of 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, and Iran must open the international waterways in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls and without impediment.

From the confused and contradictory statements made by different Iranian regime leaders over the past few days, it’s unclear if they are ready to concede any of these three points.

Since the ceasefire, they have continued to blackmail international shipping companies by requiring that they coordinate with the IRGC navy and take a new route through the Strait that passes behind Larak Island close to the Iranian coastline.

This allows them to charge tolls for safe passage, on the phony pretext that ships are transiting Iranian territorial waters, not the international passage of the Strait.

President Trump made clear that was a non-starter. In a post on Truth Social on Thursday evening, he wrote:

• “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — they better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

At best, ten to twelve ships have transited the Strait each day since the ceasefire, instead of the hundred or more than normally make the journey. Most of them are small oil tankers, LNG ships, or bulk carriers.

It’s unclear if a supertanker loaded with two million barrels of oil or a SuperMax container ship could even negotiate the sharp turn required to go round Larak Island.

What the Iranians also need to understand is that while these talks go on, the United States continues to flow troops, ships, and material to the region. As the President has said, it’s a good time for our pilots and war-fighters to rest up, so they can deliver a knock-out blow in two week’s time (or less) if the talks fail.

We’re hearing that IRGC commanders are trying to instruct the regime’s negotiating team to refuse any discussion of their ballistic missile arsenal. They seem already to have forgotten that they rained down twice the number of missiles and drones on the UAE alone than they did on Israel, and also targeted oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar.

You would think those countries would get a say in negotiating a total halt to the regime’s ballistic missile and drone programs.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been touring Gulf countries this weak in a desperate attempt to shore up British arms export contracts and to convince the Gulf Arabs that Britain actually retains some military might.

He is also trying to convince Donald Trump to stay in NATO.

But the Brits are pathetic. They no longer have a navy to speak of, and the Saudis alone have more combat jets (614) than the UK (151). The Emirati Air Force counts approximately 150 combat aircraft.

As I mentioned last week, I believe NATO is on self-destruct, not because of Donald Trump, but because the Euros have not lived up to their commitments.

On a positive note, let me mention the direct talks between Israel and Lebanon set to begin soon that aim to put an end to Hezbollah and ultimately could lead to a peace treaty.

The last time such talks were held was 43-years ago.

The two signed an agreement on May 17, 1983, that led to much optimism in the region, despite the April 18 bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut.

As I recount in And the Rest is History, most of us on the ground thought Lebanon was finally emerging from many years of darkness. And we were wrong. That agreement collapsed less than one year later as waves of Iranian-inspired kidnappings plunged Lebanon into chaos.

I discuss all this, as well the politically jinned-up allegations of US war crimes in Iran and the reason why US gas prices remain high, on this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend.

As always, you can listen live at 1 PM on Saturday on 104.9 FM or 550 AM in the Jacksonville, Florida, area, or by using the Jacksonville Way Radio app. If you miss us live, you can catch the podcast later, here.

Yours in freedom.

©2026 Kenneth R. Timmerman. All rights reserved.

Website: kentimmerman.com

Ken Timmerman’s 14th book of non-fiction, THE IRAN HOUSE: Tales of Revolution, Persecution, War, and Intrigue, can be ordered by clicking here or by viewing my author’s page, here. 

Raising Olives in Provence, can be ordered by clicking here.