Entries by Five Thirty Eight

Donald Trump is ‘in his strongest-ever position’ to win on November 8th

Well, folks, this is getting tight. Donald Trump is in his strongest-ever position in FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which gives him a 46 percent chance of winning the election. Trump’s chances are about the same, 45 percent, according our polls-only forecast, his best standing since it showed him with a 50 percent chance in the midst […]

Influence at the DNC: More than 60 superdelegates are registered lobbyists

The Sunlight Foundation reports: Lobbyists wield enormous influence and, depending on your point of view, can bring positive or negative changes to our government. From reptile keepers to balloon enthusiasts, everyone has a constitutional right to petition government. The power some lobbyists hold over both parties in Congress and the White House is well documented. […]

Of Course Trump Can Win

In this week’s politics chat, we check in on some surprising/crazy/totally normal general election polls. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Let’s talk general election polls. We’re a little over five months from Election Day, and polls show a close race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Today’s question: What […]

Who’s On Track For The Nomination? by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman

Tracking a candidate’s progress requires more than straight delegate counts. We’ve estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. See who’s on track and who’s falling behind The Democratic National Committee includes 712 “superdelegates,” usually elected officials and party leaders, whose votes at the convention are not […]