Critically Thinking about Iran: The importance of this issue is hard to overstate…
Iran is yet another matter that screams out for Critical Thinking. Regretfully, like with many things, much of what you read and hear will be devoid of that, as it’s a lot easier to spew political talking points, disguised as journalism.
This short commentary will try to put some parts of this concerning matter into perspective. As readers know, accurate perspective is a necessary ingredient of Critical Thinking.
Brief History of Iran —
Most of us know very little about the long history of Iran. Here is a recent overview. This is a reasonable (but somewhat more detailed) history.
How we have confused Iran —
It’s understandable that Iran may not take any President at face value, as the last three have had radically different Iran policies…
Despite claims that Iran was a terrorist state, etc, President Obama gave them $1.7 Billion in cash, plus freed up $50+ Billion more for them.
In President Trump’s first term, he stated that he was exerting “maximum pressure” on Iran. One consequence of this was that their annual oil reserves went from $122 Billion in 2018 to $4 Billion in 2020 (see here).
President Biden’s Iran policy was vague and non-descript, which translated to that it was about appeasement. This led to Iran being enriched by tens of billions of dollars (e.g., here, here, and here).
What’s at Stake —
Three things are clear about the current Iranian regime: 1) it hates Israel and America, 2) it has funded deadly terrorist activity in many areas, and 3) it has been aggressively working towards developing nuclear bomb capability.
The ruse of the JCPOA —
JCPOA = Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. See here, here, and here.
What Israel has done recently —
In the last week or so, Israel has made multiple very targeted (military only) strikes on Iran. For sample reporting see here and here. In response, Iran has made several non-military attacks on Israel (e.g., see here).
What the US has done recently —
Iran was given numerous warnings by President Trump in hopes of getting them to be serious about a diplomatic solution, but their responses indicated that there was no hope for that. No citizens know exactly what stage Iran was at regarding a nuclear bomb. The President and his team (who do have access to such confidential intelligence), decided that we needed to quickly undermine their nuclear bomb progress, which was done (see here and here).
What Iran may do —
This, of course, is unknown. This article opines: Seven Options for Iran After US Attacks. Another: Here’s how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program.
The short-range impact on US citizens —
There are multiple possibilities, from cyberattacks to oil price increases. There will also be incessant political dissent from never-Trumpers — like calls for his impeachment. [Note that complaining Dems forgot that the prior U.S. Secretary of State publicly stated that military intervention to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons could not be ruled out — e.g., here.]
The long-range impact on US citizens —
One potentially positive outcome is that other bad actors will appreciate that President Trump is willing to step up if necessary. Hopefully that will lead to less bad behavior on their part…
China and other players —
China is an ally of Iran, and what they will do is undetermined. One recent reported development is that they sent five 747’s to Iran. These may be to:
a) replenish Iran’s missile stockpile,
b) remove and safeguard some of what Iran has developed regarding a nuclear bomb, or
c) something else.
The Bottom Line —
The short answer is that no one knows what the total fallout will be here. This was not a zero-sum matter, as doing nothing also had the real potential for catastrophic results. In effect, the U.S. was between a rock and a hard place.
Praying is a good idea, and getting your own affairs in order also makes sense.
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