Tag Archive for: Birthrate

8 Policies to Help Young People Marry and Have Babies

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The number of babies born in the United States falls every year to new lows, imposing costs that experts warn could stretch into “quadrillions of dollars.” Now, analysts from two continents have proposed policies to help families get married and raise children — and help governments reverse the societal impact of the global demographic time bomb.

Governments should analyze how policies impact families, address inflation, lower housing costs, end the marriage penalty, make deadbeat dads support their children, and destigmatize marriage and family, say experts. The recommendations come from two reports, one in the U.S. and the second from an organization comprised of 56 nations stretching from the United States and Europe to central Asia.

“Demographic change is a defining megatrend with far-reaching implications for societies, economies, and governance structures which impact labour markets, pension systems, healthcare services, and social stability,” Gudrun Kugler, a member of Austria’s parliament and author of the transatlantic study, told The Washington Stand. “I am very concerned about the long-term consequences of an aging workforce, population decline, and the increasing burden on healthcare and pension systems, which, if left unaddressed, could undermine social stability, economic growth and even regional security.”

To arrest this trend, Kugler authored an in-depth study largely focused on the cost of depopulation, in her capacity as vice president of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA). Meanwhile, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) produced a detailed series of policy recommendations, edited by Timothy Carney, a columnist at the Washington Examiner and senior fellow at AEI, who was joined by numerous distinguished public intellectuals.

AEI recommended:

1. Require a Family-Formation Review of New Federal Actions. Federal law already requires the government to perform an environmental impact statement analyzing how rules will impact the planet every time it proposes a new rule. The Paperwork Reduction Act tries to address the amount of time each new rule will force business owners to spend in regulatory compliance. Why not treat the American family as well as the delta smelt? “Congress should require federal agencies to examine how their actions affect family formation,” writes Carney. “Does a new regulation create a marriage penalty? Does it make homeownership more difficult? Does it discriminate against larger families?” Good policy begins by minding how government policy impacts the family unit.

2. Remove Roadblocks to Starter Homes. Young families cite the high cost of raising a family, especially the rising cost of housing, as a disincentive to have children. The government should reduce the portion of bloated home costs due to federal regulations.

“The Federal Emergency Management Agency and Environmental Protection Agency develop national model building codes, which states and localities use to draft their regulations. The Clean Water Act and Occupational Safety and Health Administration directly affect builders. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that the cost of regulatory compliance constitutes nearly a quarter of the cost of a single-family home,” noted Carney.

He advised the federal government to measure which regulations most inflate the cost of housing and find ways to “mitigate the added costs.”

President Donald Trump is already curbing the national regulatory burden through his January 31 executive order “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation,” which forces regulators to cut 10 rules from the federal code for every new federal rule, regulation, or guidance.

3 and 4. Reform the Child Tax Credit for inflation and incentivize work. The report contains two recommendations to improve the impact of the Child Tax Credit (CTC).

First, the government should inflation-proof the CTC. President Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubled the Child Tax Credit to $2,000 beginning in 2018. But rampant inflation under his successor, Joe Biden, reduced the credit’s real value today by $500,” or 25%, wrote Kevin Corinth. “The simple solution is to extend the TCJA while increasing the CTC to $2,500 and indexing it for inflation.”

Second, the CTC should encourage recipients to find gainful employment. The 2021 CTC “made the mistake of offering unconditional cash payments to nonworking families, which can undermine the connections among work, marriage, and family life,” wrote Brad Wilcox. “Congress should pass a CTC that requires a modest income threshold of $20,000 before the full $2,000-per-child credit kicks in.” Wilcox recommends a CTC increase 10-times as large as Corinth’s, writing, “That credit should increase to $5,000 annually for each child under age five and $3,000 for each school-age child under 18.”

5. Use the Child Support Payments to Bring Low-Income Men into the Workforce. Single women find it difficult to raise children if low-income, absentee fathers refuse to pay child support. One in eight (13%) U.S. families lacks a working father: 8% of American homes have no working parents, and mothers support 5% of all families, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Congress could adopt a work requirement for low-income men who owe child support payments” before they can receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) — as it currently does for women, wrote Howard Husock. Specifically, the Department of Health and Human Services should withhold federal grants to assist states with child support enforcement unless those states implement work requirements for TANF.

Furthermore, there should be penalties for men who choose to remain deadbeat dads: “[N]oncustodial parents who fail to gain employment or participate in a state employment training program should face imprisonment,” advised Hucock.

6. Reform the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Rules on Subsidized Housing. HUD policy tends to increase government dependence, particularly for single parents. The average person living in public housing has been there for 10 years, according to HUD statistics. “Two-parent families with children occupy just 3 percent of subsidized housing,” wrote Husock. Congress should impose a five-year time limit for federal housing benefits, similar to that of TANF, which “would incentivize households to increase their earnings and move up and out.”

7. Schools Craft Better Cell Phone Policies. Last December, the outgoing Biden-Harris administration issued a report on cell phone usage in schools, titled “Planning Together: A Playbook for Student Personal Device Policies.” Then-Education Secretary Miguel Cardona suggested states explore how cell phones and other smart devices affect learning. Christopher Scalia suggests Congress pass the Focus on Learning Act, which would mandate a national study on the impact of cellphone use on schoolchildren’s education, behavior, and overall mental health. The bill “would still help states and school districts understand, explain, and implement the best policies to overcome the challenges posed by cell phones in school,” wrote Scalia. “It’s a modest but realistic measure that respects federalism.”

8. Re-enchant marriage, motherhood, and religious faith. In her report, Kugler called for a social and religious reformation supporting marriage, child-rearing, and the religious faith that inspires and sustains family formation.

“A broad cultural transformation is needed to create an environment that supports family formation and its stability over time, child-rearing, and work-life balance,” including efforts to “restore societal prestige” for parents including “family and child-friendly TV content” and “family-friendly curricula in schools.” She asked social leaders to raise awareness about the dangers of delaying pregnancy until later in life, including “higher risks of infertility, complicated pregnancies, and increased rates of miscarriage.” Culture should aim to increase marital stability, “avoid stigmatizing stay-at-home parents,” and “facilitating adoption.”

A faith-filled environment benefits families as well, wrote Kugler. “Religion plays a significant role in family values, and research shows that people with faith adherences tend to have higher birth rates. A balanced approach that respects religious beliefs and supports family life can help create a more inclusive society. Governments must recognize the positive impact that religious institutions can have on family stability and uphold freedom of religion,” wrote Kugler.

Everyone agrees the costs of inaction are high. Unless Americans reverse the nation’s low birthrate, “the U.S. will face an existential economic crisis” which “could have an impact measured in the quadrillions of dollars,” wrote Jesús Fernández-Villaverde in The American Enterprise, AEI’s monthly publication.

“Aging populations, declining birth rates, and increasing unplanned childlessness, lead to a concerning worker-retiree dependency ratio that necessitate[s] urgent and coordinated political action. It is therefore crucial, to adopt policies that support families, parents, and having children, and to promote intergenerational solidarity,” Kugler told TWS. “At the same time, we will have to intensify urban and rural development policies that ensure adequate infrastructure and services while undergoing demographic changes.”

The West’s way of life cannot continue “without major adjustments,” her report concluded.

AUTHOR

Ben Johnson

Ben Johnson is senior reporter and editor at The Washington Stand.

EDITORS NOTE: This Washington Stand column is republished with permission. All rights reserved. ©2025 Family Research Council.

The Washington Stand is Family Research Council’s outlet for news and commentary from a biblical worldview. The Washington Stand is based in Washington, D.C. and is published by FRC, whose mission is to advance faith, family, and freedom in public policy and the culture from a biblical worldview. We invite you to stand with us by partnering with FRC.

Having Fewer Babies Will Cost U.S. Economy ‘Quadrillions of Dollars’: Study

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The West’s growing epidemic of childlessness and depopulation will “fundamentally alter our societies” and impose “an existential economic crisis” on the United States that will cost the U.S. alone “quadrillions of dollars,” according to two new reports.

Despite decades of warnings about overpopulation, the United States and Europe have long had fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per family. The global population bust will lead to nations with lower GDP, higher welfare spending, fewer workers, less economic power — and, possibly, a shift away from a global order led by the once-Christian West to one overwhelmed by a growing Muslim population.

“If we are unable to address our fertility crisis, the U.S. will face an existential economic crisis driven by a steep decline in fertility rates — one that could have an impact measured in the quadrillions of dollars,” wrote Jesús Fernández-Villaverde in The American Enterprise, the monthly publication of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). “[Y]es, tackling fertility has an impact measured in discounted terms of quadrillions of dollars, not just small change like a miserly trillion dollars here or there.”

“Seems bad,” quipped Brad Wilcox, professor of sociology at the University of Virginia and a fellow at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS).

If anything, the economic concerns minimize the full extent of the social revolution soon to be ushered in through low fertility, say experts in Europe.

The world’s impending underpopulation “should be treated as a primary political issue: We will be witnessing the reshaping of our region’s social, economic, and political landscape, impacting social structure, infrastructure, labour force, retirement, old age and health, state finances, and security — almost every aspect of life. It will break the system,” wrote Gudrun Kugler of Austria.

Global Population Bust

No one questions the fact that nearly every corner of the globe is producing fewer babies. Global fertility has plunged from five children per woman in 1950 to around 2.25 children per woman in 2023, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s “World Population Prospects” report. “Globally, the total fertility rate is likely already below replacement — that is, below the level needed to sustain the population in the long run, approximately 2.18 children per woman. In the U.S., it’s around 1.6,” wrote Fernández-Villaverde.

The birthrate in every society on nearly every continent is below replacement level, except sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia, noted Kugler — who is vice president of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA).

Of OSCE region’s 56 member nations, only the primarily Muslim nations of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan currently have replacement-level birthrates. Roman Catholic Malta had the lowest birthrate at 1.08. “Even in India birth rates have fallen below replacement levels: Only five out of thirty-six states are now above replacement level,” noted the OSCE report. After decades of a brutally enforced one-child policy, “China could lose as many as 600 million inhabitants by the end of the century,” added Fernández-Villaverde.

“This trend is evident in both wealthy and poor nations, in religious and secular states, in countries with right-wing governments, as well as those with left-wing governments, and in nations with free abortion access and those with restrictive abortion laws,” wrote Fernández-Villaverde.

However, abortion impacts the global fertility replacement level in one way: “[T]he global replacement rate of 2.18 is slightly higher than that of the U.S. due to selective abortion of girls in Asia and higher female mortality in Africa.”

To make matters worse, the full extent of the problem is hidden by a phenomenon known as “population momentum”: Women in the Millennial and Gen Z cohorts continue to have babies while their parents are alive, coasting on previous fertility rates. “All of today’s global population growth is solely a result of this momentum,” stated the AEI report.

The largest driver of the West’s demographic decline is unplanned childlessness. While those who become parents have roughly the same amount of children as usual, the rates of those who never have children has increased as much as 10-fold in Italy. Most were not childless by choice: Only 32% of childless Europeans did not want children, compared with 38% who desired children but never had them, noted Kugler in her report, “Demographic Change in the OSCE Region: Analysis, Impact and Possible Solutions of a Mega Trend Reshaping Society.”

These changes will have a profound impact on the entire world.

Economic Catastrophe

With fewer children, the U.S. economic engine will soon run out of fuel. It’s simple math: “Since the Civil War, the long-term average growth rate of output per worker in the U.S. has been approximately 1.9% annually,” according to Fernández-Villaverde. Economic growth is the output per worker plus the size of the labor pool. With fewer children, American GDP will grow at a slower rate, and “in downturns, the economy will contract, not just grow more slowly.”

The population advantage can be measured by comparing the U.S. to one of the nations at the forefront of demographic decline: Japan. From 1991 to 2019, the U.S. averaged 2.53% average economic growth, while the Japanese economy grew by only 0.83%. For all but seven of those years, the Japanese worker’s productivity exceeded that of his American counterpart. The difference? The U.S. labor force increased by 0.91% annually, while the Japanese population contracted by 0.54% a year.

“Once we begin to contemplate the fiscal implications of a declining population, it becomes difficult to focus on anything else,” concluded Fernández-Villaverde.

Dire Consequences

The consequences of the West’s birthrate falling below replacement level will be profound, according to the studies. Fewer workers will create labor shortages, leading to lower innovation, a sluggish economy, and rising dependency. A less productive society will decimate the tax base, lowering the amount of revenue the government collects and, in the process, straining pension systems and welfare programs.

This is particularly true of government transfer payments such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. In Austria, by 2042, “there will be only two working people for every pensioner, compared to today’s ratio of three to one,” noted Kugler.

An aging population exponentially increases a society’s health care costs. In Austria, those over the age of 60 make twice as many doctor visits as those under that age. “In Spain, in 2011, 80% of all pharmaceutical expenses were made by people aged 65 or more, who were 17% of the population then,” Kugler wrote.

Fewer babies being born also transforms societies in more profound ways beyond those that can be measured on a spreadsheet. One is growing social isolation and hopelessness. In 2023, then-U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued the first-ever report on America’s “epidemic of loneliness.” In the U.K., 7.1% of the population — or 3.83 million Britons — report experiencing “chronic loneliness.” Smaller families and a shrinking social circle, worsened by decreasing church attendance, breed depression.

Depopulation hits rural areas the hardest. A smaller national population increases urbanization, even as most Americans say they would rather live in a small town or rural area. Those in rural areas may see vital resources such as hospitals and grocery stores close.

A smaller population also has the potential to alter the global balance of power. Fewer people also impact the government’s ability to pay the national debt and maintain an adequate armed force deterrent. Overall noted Kugler, a smaller population in the West “could lead to a shift in geopolitical dynamics, as Europe’s demographic decline may reduce its strategic importance in global affairs.”

Increased Immigration Cannot Solve the Problem

The U.S. population has only grown due to immigration, which brings its own challenges to social cohesion. Yet increasing immigration levels cannot even solve the economic problems posed by a shrinking populace, because, wrote Fernández-Villaverde, most legal immigrants are a net economic drain. “[O]nly at the top 10th percentiles are [immigrants] net contributors” to the economy. “In other words, all immigrants that come to the US are below the 90th percentile and won’t help solve the fiscal woes created by low fertility.”

Furthermore, the children of immigrants pose similar issues. “European countries that have the detailed databases required to compute these numbers carefully have found that not even the second-generation (i.e., the sons of immigrants born in the country) is a net contributor to the welfare state,” he noted.

Perhaps with this in mind, President Donald Trump has proposed creating a $5 million “Gold Card” visa, granting those who purchase it legal residency and a path to U.S. citizenship.

All told, wrote Kugler, the West’s way of life cannot continue “without major adjustments.”

AUTHOR

Ben Johnson

Ben Johnson is senior reporter and editor at The Washington Stand.

EDITORS NOTE: This Washington Stand column is republished with permission. All rights reserved. ©2025 Family Research Council.

The Washington Stand is Family Research Council’s outlet for news and commentary from a biblical worldview. The Washington Stand is based in Washington, D.C. and is published by FRC, whose mission is to advance faith, family, and freedom in public policy and the culture from a biblical worldview. We invite you to stand with us by partnering with FRC.