There has been wild speculation about who the delegates will vote for at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio. Donald Trump has led the delegate count since the start of the GOP primary season. He has been followed by Senator Ted Cruz and in a distant third place by Govern John Kasich.
Many pundits and political websites have given predictions about what the final delegate count will be for Mr. Trump.
I have found the most insightful and thorough analysis on this topic to be from FiveThirtyEight.com.
Nate Silver in a column titled, “A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary” writes:
Three weeks ago, when we last took a detailed look at Donald Trump’s quest to win 1,237 delegates, his path looked rocky but endurable. The panel of eight experts FiveThirtyEight assembled projected Trump to wind up with 1,208 by the time California and four other states finished counting their votes on June 7, a number that would leave him tantalizingly close to clinching the Republican presidential nomination — probably close enough that he’d be able to get over the hump by persuading some uncommitted delegates to come his way before the convention.
Since then, Trump has gotten mostly bad news. Last week, he lost Wisconsin, which our panel originally considered a toss-up state leaning in Trump’s direction. Then this weekend, he was shut out of delegates at the Colorado state convention. He’s also had a couple of minor setbacks; Trump got no delegates in Utah when we thought he might get a few. All told, Trump would finish with 1,175 delegates if he hits our panel’s original estimate in the remaining states. That’s far enough away from 1,237 that winning over enough uncommitted voters will be challenging, especially given Trump’s lack of success at finding pro-Trump delegates.
But we also have a lot of new information at our disposal. Trump’s polling has held up well in the Northeast, and he has a good chance to beat the panel’s original projections in New York and Connecticut. On the flip side, his loss in Wisconsin bodes poorly for his performance in Indiana, another state we originally had as leaning toward Trump. So it’s time to revisit our projections, going through the remaining states one at a time. (Given how much delegate rules vary from state to state, there’s really no avoiding this level of detail, much to the bane of my editor.)
So according to FiveThirtyEight Trump will end up with 1,175 delegates, more than Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich combined.
Is that enough to win the nomination? What do you think?
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