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Predicting Earthquakes. Not.

The president of the Space and Science Research Corporation, John Casey, is also the author of “Cold Sun: A Dangerous ‘Hibernation’ of the Sun Has Begun!” and has called attention to a meteorological cycle that until the global warming hoax occurred, was largely unknown to many people and, to a large degree still is.

Nature has not cooperated with the charlatans who made claims about a dramatic warming of the Earth. Since 1998 the planet along with the Sun has been in a solar cycle distinguished by very few, if any, sun spots—evidence of solar storms—and a cooling of the Earth that has some predicting a forthcoming new Little Ice Age.

As Wikipedia reports: “Solar Cycle 24 is the 24th solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It is the current solar cycle, and began on January 4, 2008, but there was minimal activity until early 2010. It is on track to be the Solar Cycle with the lowest recorded sunspot activity since accurate records began in 1750.” These cycles occur every eleven years.

I was surprised to receive a news release from the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC) on Monday with the headline “Earthquake and Volcano Threat Increases” because, frankly, I could have put out the same release and, if such activity did increase, I could claim credit for predicting it and, if not, few if any would recall I had made such a claim. While earthquake activity has been studied for decades, even the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes no claim to being able to predicting when or where one will occur.

What the USGS can tell you is that their scientists (and others) “estimate earthquake probabilities in two ways: by studying the history of large earthquakes in a specific area and the rate at which strain accumulates in the rock.” A translation of this is that they have only the most minimal clues when and where one will occur. A recent International Business Times article reported that this may change as the introduction of “big data analytics” kicks in to provide “a leap of accuracy of quake predictions.”

The SSRC news release was about a letter that Casey had sent Craig Fugate, the Administrator of the Federal Management Agency which “disclosed that we are about to enter a potentially catastrophic period of record earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout the United States.”

Casey’s letter outlined “how the ongoing dramatic reduction in the Sun’s energy output will not only plunge the world into a decades-long cold epoch, but at the same time bring record geographic devastation in monster earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.”

Other scientists have come to similar conclusions, but after years of sorting through all the claims about global warming and “climate change”, one might want to tread lightly before embracing them.

I asked my colleague at The Heartland Institute, Science Director Jay Lehr, for his reaction and he was quite candid. “I have read it and am extremely skeptical. It sounds like the agency is looking for some press and, of course, when they turn out to be wrong no one will be upset. No harm. No foul. Being ready for earthquakes in known quake zones makes sense; creating unwarranted fear does not.”

Dr. Lehr summed up my own reaction. I would recommend his skepticism to everyone.

Will there be earthquakes here in the U.S.? Yes. The New Madrid earthquakes were the biggest in the nation’s history, occurring in the central Mississippi Valley and so large they were felt as far away as New York and Boston, Montreal and Washington, D.C. President James Madison and his wife Dolly felt them in the White House. They lasted from December 16, 1811 through March of 1812 and there were more than 2,000 quakes in the central Midwest, and between 6,000-10,000 in the boot-heel of Missouri where New Madrid is located near the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers.

When will new earthquakes or volcanic eruptions occur? I doubt anyone knows the answer to that.

© Alan Caruba, 2015

California faces ‘most destructive earthquakes in over 200 years’

According to analysis completed between June 10 and August 5, 2014, by the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), California has entered its greatest risk period for the most destructive earthquakes in over 200 years.

The IEVPC began in February 2012 and includes some of the international seismic community’s most successful and experienced earthquake prediction experts.

From IEVPC CEO Mr. John L. Casey, “Because of the success achieved in climate prediction and seismic research by the IEVPC’s sister company, the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC), these leading researchers approached me in late 2011 and asked that I pull their collective talents together to create the world’s best earthquake prediction company.”

Mr. Casey adds further, “Because we had early success in predicting large earthquakes and associated volcanic activity, we recently initiated two new programs. The first was aimed at alerting insurance firms that serve California of an increased risk they face in that state. This was started three months ago. Second we began another test program in July to refine our long range prediction capabilities over the next year.

The Test Program has already posted on line its first test items, what the IEVPC calls “Observations.” Today a California specific “Observation” has been added for the Southern California area including the Baja Peninsula. These observations, instead of predictions, will permit objective, public, independent review of the IEVPC approaches to geophysical event analysis during the coming year of the Test Program.

The special warning regarding California included in this press release is the result of two indications of record quakes coming to the US west Coast.

First, is the strong correlation that has been established between a 206 year climate change cycle discovered by Mr. Casey in 2007 and the largest earthquakes on the planet. These cycles as his research shows, not only accounts for the end of global warming that occurred many years ago, but also shows a very strong correlation with the world wide cold temperature phase of the 206 year cycle and the largest most destructive earthquakes. This cold phase called a “solar hibernation” by the SSRC, has been well documented and analyzed at the SSRC.

The last time a solar hibernation struck was between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum. It was a time which saw the largest ever series of earthquakes recorded in the United States as well as the largest ever recorded volcanic eruption on Earth.

Mr. Casey reiterates this general geophysical threat to the planet.

“If this 206 year solar cycle behaves as it did before, then there is no doubt that we are in for our worst ever earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The SSRC prediction for the bottom of the cold phase will see the worst from the 2020’s through the 2030’s. However, it may be this cycle is getting off to an early powerful start as a result of the end of global warming years ago and the rapid drop in global temperatures we have been experiencing beginning in 2003. We have already seen some of the largest earthquakes ever on the planet, for example, the 2004 Indonesian M9.1+ quake and tsunami and the March 11, 2011 Japanese M9.0 quake. We have also had several large volcanic eruptions that have shut down aircraft traffic for large areas of the globe in the past five years. This global threat which pertains to California as well as the rest of the planet is covered in some detail in the June 10 edition of the Global Climate Status Report published by the SSRC.”

Second, the IEVPC’s recent analysis of seismic trends in California is in part an outcome of interest in the IEVPC earthquake prediction capabilities expressed by California insurers. The IEVPC’s analysis of Southern California indicates that that this area of the US west coast has now entered its highest risk period since the modern satellite era began in the 1970’s.

Dr. Dong Choi, Director of Research for the IEVPC, in Canberra, Australia says, “We were only asked to look at Southern California and with our own limited funding. Yet, we were still able to detect general trends of seismic activity that suggests a new period of major quakes is likely between 23 and 33 degrees North Latitude along the San Andreas fault. That includes the Gulf of California up to the Santa Barbara area. Concurrent with this general higher risk we see for that length of the San Andreas, we have also observed other precursor signals that warrant posting of another “Observation” in our new Test Program for the area near Angel de la Guarda in the Gulf.”

Postings for any Observations will be made to the IEVPC web site as they occur. See www.ievpc.org.

ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANO PREDICTION CENTER (IEVPC)

The International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC) was founded in February 2012 by a team of scientists and other experts with established track records for excellence in science research, especially tectonics, volcanism, seismic research, management, and other skills necessary for achieving the Mission and Objectives of the IEVPC.This team originated after its founders realized that there were strong correlations between the occurrences of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, solar activity, and precursor geophysical events.

These precursors have been studied for many years by the IEVPC founders, staff scientists and researchers who represent the primary body of expertise in understanding these early signals that catastrophic geophysical events (CGE) are about to strike.

U.S. Government says it can’t predict earthquakes — Florida based group says “Yes, We Can”

The U.S. government’s official position is that earthquakes cannot be predicted. It is also the U.S. government position that it can both predict and control the weather (i.e. global cooling, global warming, climate change, climate disruption). An inter-governmental oxymoron?

The U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey (USGS) website states, “There’s a 100 percent chance of an earthquake today. Though millions of persons may never experience an earthquake, they are very common occurrences on this planet. So today — somewhere — an earthquake will occur… It is estimated that about 700 shocks each year have this capability when centered in a populated area. But fortunately, most of these potentially destructive earthquakes center in unpopulated areas far from civilization… Stating that an earthquake is going to occur today is not really ‘predicting earthquakes’. To date, they cannot be predicted.” [Emphasis added]

However, an Orlando, FL based group says, “Yes, we can predict earthquakes.”

The International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), announced that it has embarked on a wide ranging program to alert the global insurance industry of its capability to predict major earthquakes.

According to IEVPC Chairman/CEO Mr. John Casey, “Our initial test program success and more recent successful internal predictions demands that we continue to contact all those individuals and businesses most affected by these destructive geophysical events. Though we are not at a 100% accuracy level yet, the fact that we have a track record of predicting major earthquakes should be of serious interest to those whose lives and properties are at risk.”

The IEVPC Director of Research Dr. Dong Choi, in Canberra, Australia adds to this by saying, “The long held belief that earthquakes cannot be predicted has been dispelled by the demonstrated ability of the IEVPC to accurately predict major earthquake events in advance. Our new technology with our integrated system of multiple precursor analysis is a paradigm shift in earthquake prediction whose time has come.”

The IEVPC was formed in February 2012 after a group of some of the world’s most successful earthquake prediction experts approached Mr. Casey, a former White House space program adviser and recognized leader in climate research, and asked him to bring them together into a single firm. Since that time, the IEVPC has been attempting to spread the word of its capability through several different channels.

As Mr. Casey explains, “The use of US and foreign government channels has shown that it will take too long to change long standing beliefs about earthquake prediction. We cannot afford to leave people and businesses at risk waiting for what would probably take many years of expensive, time consuming effort to turn these large entrenched entities around to new advances in earthquake prediction. In the meantime, we are faced with the prospect of dealing with the damaging effects of current earthquake threats knowing some could be predicted in advance. If nothing else, this new initiative is needed simply from a humanitarian perspective.”

RELATED ARTICLE: Author Says Earthquakes Are Predictable « CBS Pittsburgh

EDITORS NOTE: The featured photo of road damage from the August 1959 Hebgen Lake (Montana-Yellowstone) earthquake. Highway 287, near Hebgen Lake, Montana is courtesy of the USGS.