Tag Archive for: Operation Rising Lion

Israeli General Avivi On Iran’s Many Miscalculations

Israeli Brig. Gen. (Ret’d) Amir Avivi has published here a piece on Iran’s many mistakes that made the IDF’s stunning successes in its war with the Islamic Republic possible.

In just under two weeks—and after years of mounting pressure—Iran has suffered a series of devastating blows. Key military commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed, strategic infrastructure and nuclear sites destroyed, and the regime’s grip on power shaken. Iran’s once-feared regional influence has revealed itself to be lacking, with its proxies unable or unwilling to act on their sponsor’s behalf.

Speaking to The Media Line hours before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi told The Media Line that such a result wasn’t the predestined outcome of a clash between Iran and its archenemy, Israel. Had Iran acted more strategically, he said, the Islamic regime and its proxies probably “would have managed to bring Israel to the verge of destruction or destroy Israel.”

Avivi, founder and chair of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, described a series of miscalculations on the part of Iran that led to the regime’s significant losses. Chief among them was Hamas, an Iranian proxy group, initiating the October 7 attack before Iran had acquired nuclear weapons.

“They could have waited a year or two to become completely nuclear,” he said. “It would have been much wiser for them to move towards nuclear weapons while all the proxies are fully in readiness to attack. This would have put Israel, as it did for many years, in a big dilemma because then you attack Iran, you immediately go into a multifront war with all the proxies shooting at you at the same time.”

The October 7 attack by Hamas also lacked coordination with other fronts, a move Avivi says doomed it from the start.

“I remember at 6:30 in the morning when the war started, the first question I asked myself—as someone who is leading an organization that two years before the war, saw the war is coming—was why isn’t Hezbollah attacking? Why aren’t the Iranians attacking? How can it be only Hamas? Once it was only Hamas, I can tell you that four hours into the October 7, it was crystal clear to me they lost the war and we’re going to win decisively. They did a huge mistake,” he said.

Hezbollah joined the war the next day but without coordination, leading to what Avivi described as the group’s effective collapse….

“I don’t think they can really threaten anybody,” he said. “And I think that if they decide with the remaining capabilities they have to try to close Hormuz or shoot American bases or allies, Saudis maybe, Emirates, this will be the end of the regime….

Closing Hormuz would mean closing off the shipment of Emirati and Saudi oil to their customers. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE would stand for that, but would attack Iranian shipping in the Gulf, and perhaps even Iran’s oil terminals at Kharg Island. Nor will the Iranians dare to attack American bases in the region; they lobbed a few missiles at the Al-Udeid airbase, but made sure none of them would cause damage, by warning the Qataris well in advance, and the result was what Trump described as a “very weak response.” But if the Iranians were again to attack American bases in the region, Trump has warned that they “would be hit so hard like you can’t believe.” And Israel’s multi-tiered defense system includes the Sling, Arrows 1,2, and 3 for short- and middle-range missiles, and the Iron Dome interceptors for long-range ballistic missiles.

Avivi insists that regime change in Iran cannot be imposed, but the conditions that would cause enough Iranians to rise up against their oppressive rulers can be created from outside. He offers the example of Hezbollah, battered by the IDF, and so weakened that the Lebanese army is at last now prepared to challenge Hezbollah militarily. The humiliation of Iran’s rulers who have suffered a devastating military defeat will weaken the regime’s power to intimidate the people. The spectacle of Iran’s nuclear program, that cost the country $500 billion in sunk costs and in other costs resulting from sanctions, blasted to smithereens, will certainly enrage Iranians, not only with the U.S. and Israel, but with their own rulers, for such a colossal waste of the country’s money.

Hamas, meanwhile, now knows there is no chance of any help coming to it from Iran, that has itself been knocked from pillar to post by the IDF and, most recently, by the US air force, and reduced to pleading for a ceasefire with Israel. Nor can Hezbollah, or Syria, help Hamas. It is on its own, and the IDF, no longer having to put its main effort into the war with Iran, can concentrate on dealing with the remnants of Hamas in Gaza, for whom the future will be — as was said of a different people in Gaza long ago — dark, dark, dark, amid the blaze of noon.

AUTHOR

 

EDITORS NOTE: This Geller Report is republished with permission. ©All rights reserved.

Trump Administration Gets High Marks for Middle East Actions, But Gaps in Understanding Remain

In the wake of events in the Middle East these last couple of weeks — Israel’s Operation Rising Lion and the U.S.’s Operation Midnight Hammer — this month’s newsletter will focus on the Trump administration’s perspective, role, decisions, and actions there. Some have been amazing and even spectacular, but others give reason for some pause, at least at this juncture. More to come, for sure!

“Top Middle East, Israel and Iran officials pushed out of NSC” by Marc Rod, Emily Jacobs at Jewish Insider, May 25, 2025

  • It is concerning to see top National Security Council officials who were charged with responsibility for Middle East, Iran, and Israel issues dismissed from those positions in late May 2025.

22-Year-Old Leading Terrorism Prevention Center at DHS” by Yasmeen Hamadeh at the Daily Beast, June 5, 2025

  • This recent college graduate with zero foreign affairs, Middle East, or terrorism expertise, has been appointed to head the DHS Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships, which is mainly concerned with terrorism prevention nationwide. He’d worked on President Trump’s 2024 election campaign previously.

Qatari prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to US ceasefire proposal after call with Trump, official says” at Reuters, June 23, 2025

Trump says he doesn’t want a regime change in Iran: ‘Chaos’” by Diana Glebova at the New York Post, June 24, 2025

  • President Trump understandably wants to see things in the Middle East calm down. But misjudging the apocalyptic eschatology of the Iranian regime leadership could lead to U.S. policy decisions that fail to anticipate how deeply committed Tehran is to restoring its nuclear weapons program and continuing its quest to destroy the Jewish State of Israel and the U.S. as well. His reluctance to support the Iranian people’s quest for freedom from an oppressive terrorist regime also consigns them to a brutal crackdown, now happening across Iran.

Iran Launches Sweeping Crackdown: Hundreds Detained, Executions Underway” at Center for Human Rights in Iran, June 26, 2025

Trump offers Iran $30B for nuclear deal” by Miri Weissman at Israel Hayom, June 27, 2025

  • Even as the Iranian regime doubles down on its refusal to give up domestic nuclear enrichment and withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), President Trump and his envoy Steve Witkoff continue trying to persuade a regime fixated on Armageddon to usher in the End Times to instead discuss economic prosperity for the Iranian people.

Trump declares China can purchase Iranian oil as market signals cautious optimism” by Anders Hagstrom at Fox Business, June 24, 2025 

  • Following on an Israel-Iran ceasefire brokered by President Trump with mediation from Qatar, Trump announced in a social media post that China would continue purchasing oil from Iran. The announcement may calm global oil markets, but in so doing also signals White House willingness to acknowledge, if not specifically allow, that funding will continue to flow into Iranian regime coffers.

Donald J. Trump, @realDonald Trump at Truth Social, June 27, 2025: 

  • “Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie, it is not so. As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie. His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, “THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!” In fact, in the final act of the War, I demanded that Israel bring back a very large group of planes, which were heading directly to Tehran, looking for a big day, perhaps the final knockout! Tremendous damage would have ensued, and many Iranians would have been killed. It was going to be the biggest attack of the War, by far. During the last few days, I was working on the possible removal of sanctions, and other things, which would have given a much better chance to Iran at a full, fast, and complete recovery – The sanctions are BITING! But no, instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more. Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them. They are always so angry, hostile, and unhappy, and look at what it has gotten them – A burned out, blown up Country, with no future, a decimated Military, a horrible Economy, and DEATH all around them. They have no hope, and it will only get worse! I wish the leadership of Iran would realize that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!”
  • Concern with this post from President Trump centers on what seems to be his lack of understanding about Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his deeply-held belief in the Islamic Shi’ite eschatology of the Twelfth Imam. [Editor’s Note: The Twelfth Imam will emerge at the end of time to establish peace and redeem Islam, per Wikipedia.]  As well, President Trump seems not to know that faithful Muslims are obligated under Islamic Law to lie to infidels. These gaps in his understanding about intent and motivations of the Tehran regime could lead to errors in U.S. decision-making. 

©2025 . All rights reserved.

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Milstein: Israel Paves a Path

The diaspora should follow.

On June 21, 2025, the United States and Israel deepened their historic partnership, as American warplanes struck Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in a decisive blow against barbarism.

For the first time, the U.S. allowed an ally to lead: Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, using F-35 jets, cleared Iran’s skies and softened targets, paving the way for U.S. B-2 stealth bombers with GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles to dramatically diminish Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Donald Trump hailed this as a triumph of freedom over evil, a moral stand in the fight between terror and liberty. This unprecedented cooperation, with Israel initiating and the U.S. completing the mission, sets a bold example for diaspora Jews to reject passivity and embrace self-reliance in the face of global threats.

Since the horrific attacks of October 7, 2023, the world has relentlessly dictated to Israel: don’t enter Rafah; negotiate with Hamas; trust Qatar to broker ceasefires with the Hamas terrorists; avoid confronting Hezbollah; ignore Houthi assaults; and never strike Iran. The message is clear: absorb blows, tolerate civilian casualties, dismiss enemies’ threats, and let others shape your fate. This counsel of passivity echoes a historical trap that has endangered Jews for centuries.

In the diaspora, Jews face similar advice: stay silent; avoid provocation; and trust law enforcement, politicians, or societal goodwill to protect us. Antisemitism, we’re told, won’t escalate. Don’t fight back; focus on building coalitions; tone down advocacy; and rely on systems for safety. Many comply, conditioned by centuries of vulnerability, to believe restraint ensures survival. The Holocaust, when six million stateless Jews perished as the world stood by, cemented this caution. Without a state or army, Jews in Europe were defenseless.

Yet Israel has rejected this paralysis, forging a destiny of strength and self-reliance. The 2003 flyover of Auschwitz by three Israeli F-15 Eagles, a powerful symbol of this transformation, captured Israel’s resolve.

In 2003, a squadron of Israel’s F-15 Eagles flew over Auschwitz, and Maj. General Amir Eshel, who led the flyover, stated on behalf of the IDF: “We pilots of the Israeli Air Force, flying in the skies above the camp of horrors, arose from the ashes of the millions of victims and shoulder their silent cries, salute their courage and promise to be the shield of the Jewish people and its nation Israel.” This vow underpins Israel’s actions—dismantling Hamas, crippling Hezbollah, and targeting Iran’s nuclear programs—now amplified by the U.S. partnership. In contrast, diaspora Jews often cling to a false belief that others will protect us, a divergence that demands action.

The surge of Antisemitism has shattered all illusions. On May 21, 2025, in Washington, D.C., Israeli Embassy staffers Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Milgrim were murdered outside the Capital Jewish Museum by Elias Rodriguez, who shouted “Free Palestine” in a hate crime the FBI called terrorism. On June 1, 2025, in Boulder, Colorado, Mohamed Sabry Soliman, an Egyptian national illegally in the U.S., threw Molotov cocktails at a Run for Their Lives rally, injuring 12, aiming to “kill all Zionist people.” Synagogues are defaced in London and Los Angeles. Jewish students face hostility at Columbia and UCLA. Jewish businesses endure vandalism. In Europe, France reports unprecedented violence since 2021. Yet, leaders urge patience: trust police, wait for calm. The U.S.-Israel operation charts a bolder path.

Israel’s security is existential. Since October 7, it has crushed Hamas’s military in Gaza, preventing another massacre. In 2024, it eliminated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and its missile arsenal, weakening Iran’s network. Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Tehran, killing IRGC commanders Saeed Izadi and Behnam Shahriyari, set the stage for the U.S. to finish Iran’s nuclear threat. This U.S.-Israel model refuses to let dangers materialize.

This mindset is preparation, not aggression. In June 2025, Israel led, and the U.S. followed, based on the premise that our survival is non-negotiable. Diaspora Jews, relying on local authorities, face limits exposed by the 2018 Pittsburgh shooting, 2022 Colleyville crisis, D.C. murders, and Boulder attack. In Europe, knife attacks in Amsterdam demand self-reliance.

The diaspora need not stand alone. Israel’s resources—intelligence, cyber-defense, training—can empower communities. Shin Bet workshops could protect synagogues in New York. Israel’s moral support affirms that we are not isolated. In return, we must advocate for Israel’s right to self-defense. This synergy fortifies us both.

Diaspora Jews must reject the notion that antisemitism is fleeting. Threats from radical Islamists, far-left ideologues, and right-wing extremists escalate. The D.C. and Boulder attacks are part of a global wave. We cannot outsource safety. We must invest in security: trained guards, digital defenses, rapid-response networks. We can train youth, mirroring Israel’s preparedness, and foster Jewish pride.

Security is not isolation. The Islamo-leftist alliance threatens Jews and democracies. The U.S.-Israel partnership against Iran exemplifies cooperation. Diaspora Jews can forge coalitions with many other groups, retaining control over our safety.

Jewish history teaches survival demands resolve. The U.S.-Israel operation—Israel dismantling Hamas and Hezbollah, both neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat—sets the path. We must invest in defenses, train our youth, deepen ties with Israel, and build alliances. Rejecting passivity, global Jewry can forge a future as architects of our destiny—united, resilient, and unafraid.

This article was originally published by The Jerusalem Post.

AUTHOR

Adam Milstein is an Israeli-American “Venture Philanthropist.” He can be reached at adam@milsteinff.org, on Twitter @AdamMilstein, and on Facebook www.facebook.com/AdamMilsteinCP.

©2025 . All rights reserved.

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Political Antisemitism Exposed by Operation Rising Lion

There are two possible reasons for the persistence of shrill, reflexive denunciations of Israel by progressive politicians: naiveté or malice. 

Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion because there was absolutely no doubt regarding Iran’s intention to attack the Jewish State with nuclear weapons. And the timing was critical because the Islamic Republic was dangerously close to “breakout,” facilitated in part by Barack Obama’s feckless nuclear deal and the transfer of billions of dollars to Iran during both his and Biden’s administrations. This windfall also enabled Iran to fund Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and in effect finance the atrocities of October 7th.

Faced with the potential for annihilation, Israel needed to act without further delay and was applauded by many Congressional Republicans for doing so. Democrats were split, however, indicating the progressive wing’s descent into political antisemitism, which ultimately has nothing to do with Israeli policies, and everything to do with hatred of Israel as a Jewish nation.

As college campuses and cities explode with antisemitic violence, as Jews are physically assaulted, and as Jewish institutions are defaced, vandalized, and set ablaze, progressives find it acceptable to utilize the world’s oldest hatred as a political weapon. But how can they spew anti-Israel propaganda that is demonstrably false without being challenged, and how can the mainstream continue to cover for them?

One of the more outrageous statements was that of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), issued after Israel’s first strike, saying: “The world is more dangerous and unstable as a result of the extremist Netanyahu’s government ongoing defiance of international law…First, he uses the starvation of children in Gaza as a tool of war, a barbaric violation of the Geneva Conventions. Now, his illegal unilateral attack on Iran risks a full-blown regional war.”

But here is a reality check for the Senator from Vermont: the world is not more dangerous because Netanyahu struck Iran as it was about to achieve nuclear breakout. Did Sanders express the same concerns regarding global peace and stability when Hamas murdered, raped, and kidnapped Jewish civilians? Or when Iran instigated the war in Yemen? All Netanyahu did was take action to eradicate the nuclear threat of a terror regime that has sworn repeatedly to destroy Israel and perpetrate another Holocaust.

The operation was not “unilateral,” moreover, but only the latest action in a battlefront opened last year when the Islamic Republic attacked Israel with a barrage of nearly two-hundred ballistic missiles. Retaliation then was muted – reportedly because of pressure from the Biden administration to prevent Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. Additionally, the first ballistic assault against Israel followed multiple wars that Iran precipitated through its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah over the last two decades and a terror campaign it has waged against Jewish targets around the world since 1979.

And despite the Senator’s high-pitched hyperbole, Israel’s actions do not violate international law.

The canard that Israel is starving Gazan children is particularly vile because it evokes false claims of Israeli genocide disseminated by progressives since the beginning of the war. Such calumnies are nothing short of blood libel and are as delusional as the nonsense spouted by politicians who chastise Israel for having the chutzpah to fight for her survival. Senator Jack Reed (D-RI), Senior Democrat on the US Senate Armed Services Committee, and Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who serves on the Foreign Relations Committee, come to mind for their tedious condemnations of Israel’s actions despite Iran’s well-documented history of terror, provocation, and genocidal threats.

There are two possible reasons for the persistence of shrill, reflexive denunciations of Israel by progressive politicians: naiveté or malice:

  1. They can perhaps be excused for not knowing if they are truly unaware of the relevant history and facts, but absolution by ignorance only goes so far in the internet age, when people have immediate informational resources at their fingertips. Consequently, even the ignorant have an intellectual obligation to reevaluate their core beliefs when confronted with easily accessible facts that undermine their predicate assumptions and prejudices.
  2. If they continue to disregard facts that present inconvenient truths concerning the genocidal threat against Israel, their ignorance becomes willful and crosses a line from which malevolent bias can be reasonably inferred.

Are there conservatives or Republicans who harbor anti-Israel sentiments? Probably, but they are not attacking Jews in the streets because of the President’s support for Israel. In fact, Republicans as a collective seem to recognize that Israel is doing what the western nations themselves should have done to prevent the Iranian nuclear threat in the first place, instead of coddling Iran, lifting sanctions, and ignoring the Mullahs’ continuous threats of genocide. It would be laudable to help eradicate the nuclear threat posed by a rogue nation with a record of terrorism and regional destabilization; but the West, unfortunately, has a history of weakness, incompetence, and duplicity where Israel and the Jews are concerned.

Israel cannot afford to entrust her survival to a community of nations that failed the Jews so spectacularly during the Holocaust – and which actively participated in their persecution and slaughter for centuries (e.g., during the pogroms, the Russian civil war in which Russians and Ukrainians murdered up to 250,000 Jews, the Khmelnytsky Rebellion, the Inquisition, and the Crusades). Jew-hatred is so thoroughly ingrained in European culture and Islamic society that the kneejerk response to news of any Mideast conflict is to blame Israel. Consequently, empathy or goodwill regarding any national or collective tragedy suffered by Israel or the Jews is typically conditional and fleeting at best.

Indeed, global sympathy after October 7th began fading almost immediately – particularly among progressives.It is especially disappointing to see how progressive antisemitism has engendered moral tone deafness regarding not only hatred of Israel, but the safety of Jews in the United States.

Illustrative of this ethical malaise was the mixed reaction in Congress to the recent attack against Jews in Boulder, Colorado, by an Egyptian immigrant wielding Molotov cocktails and a homemade flamethrower. The perpetrator attempted to immolate twelve Jews who were engaged in a peaceful solidarity walk calling for release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Shortly thereafter, Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo) introduced a resolution condemning the antisemitic attack and expressing unanimity with the Jewish community. Though Rep. Evans is of non-Jewish heritage, he immediately came to the defense of his Jewish constituents out of a sense of decency and humanity.

The resolution passed by a vote of 280-113, with 205 Republicans voting in favor joined by only 75 Democrats. Incredibly, 113 Democrats voted against the bill, claiming the language was too politically charged. This rationalization was disgraceful and would never have been tolerated if the resolution were written to condemn hate crimes against African Americans, Hispanics, gay people, or any other minority.

Even those who proclaim sympathy for Israel often seem compelled to conflate issues that have disparate historical etiologies, while always placing the burden for resolution on Israel. This was illustrated by the British Foreign Secretary in his address to Parliament about the Israel-Iran conflict, which he concluded by stating: “Our vision remains unchanged. An end to Iran’s nuclear programme and destabilising regional activity. Israel, secure in its borders and at peace with its neighbours. A sovereign Palestinian state, as part of the two-state solution.”

The Foreign Secretary’s juxtaposition of the Iranian nuclear crisis and two-state myth seems to echo the theory of linkage, which deems Israel the root cause of all instability in the Mideast. It also suggests that compassion for Israel is conditioned on how high she will jump when imperiously commanded by nations that do not face existential annihilation.

The menace of a nuclear Iran, however, stands alone and has nothing whatever to do with the Palestinian Arabs – except to the extent that Iran has been subsidizing their state of war against Israel for years, and that the atrocities coordinated by Iran and committed by Hamas on October 7th show the fundamental impossibility of a two-state “solution.”

If the Jewish people have learned anything from the harsh realities of exile, it is:

(a) to distrust the platitudes of those who lecture us on how self-abnegation is essential for our survival, and

(b) to believe antisemites when they say they intend to kill us.

This dialectic was simply yet eloquently articulated to the narrator in Elie Wiesel’s Holocaust memoir, “Night,” by the unnamed character who said: “I’ve got more faith in Hitler than in anyone else. He’s the only one who’s kept his promises, all his promises, to the Jewish people.”

If the Mullahs in Iran vow their intent to exterminate the Jews with nuclear weapons, we should take them at their word; and conversely, we should ignore the diatribes of western political elites who show their antisemitism by portraying Israel as the aggressor and Jews as bad actors.

©2025 All rights reserved.