Tag Archive for: super Tuesday

Polls: What They’ve Gotten Right So Far, And What They’re Saying About ’24

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For almost a decade now, Republicans have taken pollsters’ incompetence for granted. They gave Hillary Clinton an almost certain chance of victory in 2016, so they can never be trusted to accurately gauge Donald Trump — or so the theory goes. However, the polls have been fairly accurate in this election cycle — at least in the beginning.

Trump is a uniquely difficult figure to poll. For a long time, the hostile environment Democrats, the corporate media, and leading cultural figures built around him made expressing pro-Trump sentiments a risky business. Supporting Trump could put friendships in jeopardy, rupture families, or even have dire professional consequences. People knew they weren’t supposed to like him, and if they did, it represented some sort of character flaw. Even to strangers polling them over the phone, people cautiously guard their virtue. It doesn’t help that polls are sometimes strategically weighted toward Democrats, to shape opinion rather than reflect it.

Yet as Trump chugs along with the momentum of a steamroller, this toxic atmosphere has begun to collapse. It’s no longer a social death sentence to say you support Trump — even high-profile celebrities are doing it. Some, from irreverent rapper Azealia Banks to Kelsey Grammer to sports legend Caitlyn Jenner have openly endorsed him, while other notable figures like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan have certainly warmed up to some of his ideas. Partly, it’s herd mentality: middle-of-the-road voters now feel more comfortable expressing their support as social interdictions soften. However, it’s also a conscious shift. People have woken up to the media narratives, realizing that President Joe Biden is the true radical on issues from immigration to the economy, while Trump represents a moderate return to normal.

This helps explain why the polling on Trump has been pretty much spot on so far this election season.

On the day of the caucus in Iowa, the 538 polling average projected Trump would take 52.7% of the vote, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would hold 18.7%. Trump wound up coming in just barely under, at 51%, while Haley over-performed by less than half a point at 19.1%. The key takeaways of the projection held: Trump enjoyed support from a narrow majority, while Haley’s base was a solid, but ultimately insignificant, quarter of the Republican electorate. 

The polls were right again in New Hampshire. On the day of the primary, Trump stood at 53.9% percent in the 538 average,  while Haley stood at 36.3%. Trump slightly overperformed by less than half a point, walking away with 54.3% of the vote. Haley, meanwhile, did substantially better than the polls suggested at 43%, but that is likely because Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out right before the election. Some of his voters moved over to Haley’s camp too quickly for the polls to capture. On Trump, the pollsters were spot on.

In South Carolina, Trump again came in just slightly over a point of the polls — 59.8% projected compared to 61.6%. Haley overperformed by about 5 points, coming in at 39% after a 34% projection. Again, this is likely due to Democrats turning out for Haley to spite Trump, although they would certainly not vote for her in a general election.

It’s only in Michigan that Trump’s polling began to deviate. Haley did about 5 points better than expected, while Trump did about 10 points worse, with uncommitteds making up most of the balance.

From there, things got dicier on Super Tuesday. Polls suggested Trump was likely to win by almost 50 points in Virginia, but he only walked away with about a 28-point victory. Despite a small sample, polls did not predict Haley’s victory in Vermont; in fact, they suggested a roughly 30-point victory for Trump. Haley surged in Massachusetts (an open primary), reducing Trump’s margin of victory to roughly 15 points narrower than projected.

Partly, this is due to averages being skewed from earlier polling before Haley surged in the match-up against Trump. But it shows that polls can’t totally be counted on to accurately reflect the anti-Trump or Trump-ambivalent primary voters. So we get a pretty good idea of the proportions of Trump’s core base, and how they are going to turn out. Moderates and Independents, the types who are lukewarm on Trump and gravitate towards someone a little more centrist like Haley, may turn out to be a wild card that cut into Trump’s support. With Haley’s reported withdrawal from the race following Super Tuesday, the question now becomes: will they gravitate back to Trump, stay home, or vote for Biden?

Trump has been up in nearly every poll since the beginning of 2024. The RealClear polling average currently has him leading Biden by 2.1 points, 47.5% to 45.4%. If within the margin of error from the first three primary polls on Trump, he would still walk away with the win. Without Haley and her last-minute momentum skewing the polls, things may settle back into equilibrium. As the “herd” continues to move toward Trump as an inevitability, it becomes increasingly safe to support him. This makes people both more likely to support him, as well as more likely to admit it to pollsters. As a result, Trump’s lead should widen further and the polls should reflect it even more accurately.

This dynamic works in favor of Haley voters coming back to Trump. They are looking for the perception of moderation, stability and normalcy — and Haley herself will play a large part in convincing her voters whether Trump is the right candidate for the job.

AUTHOR

GAGE KLIPPER

Commentary and analysis writer.

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Nikki Haley Takes One State, But Trump Romps In The Rest As Super Tuesday Results Roll In

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Former President Donald Trump racked up wins across the country after voters took to the polls in more than a dozen Super Tuesday states with hundreds of delegates up for grabs.

While former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley pulled out a narrow upset victory in the Vermont primary, Trump won Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Maine, Alabama, Massachusetts, Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Minnesota and California, The Associated Press projected. Republican contests in Alaska and Utah had not yet been called as of 1 a.m. EST.

“They call it Super Tuesday for a reason. This is a big one,” Trump said in a speech following his victories. “And they tell me — the pundits and otherwise — that there’s never been one like this, there’s never been anything so conclusive. This was an amazing, an amazing night, an amazing day. It’s been an incredible period of time and our country’s history. It’s been sad in so many ways, but I think it’s going to be inspiring because we’re going to do something that, frankly, nobody’s been able to do for a long time.”

Trump’s Super Tuesday victories carried him within striking distance of locking up the Republican nomination, and lessened Haley’s already long odds to overcome the former president.

President Joe Biden also secured wins in the Democratic contests for Virginia, Vermont, Iowa, North Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, Maine, Arkansas, Alabama, Texas, Colorado, Minnesota, Utah and California according to the AP. He was defeated in American Samoa by little-known candidate Jason Palmer.

Trump also racked up several wins in the days ahead of Super Tuesday, including the North Dakota caucus, the Michigan primary, the Michigan caucus, the Idaho caucus and the Missouri caucus. The former president has also won the South Carolina primary, the Nevada caucus, the U.S. Virgin Islands caucus, the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucus.

Haley lost to the “None of These Candidates” option in the Nevada primary, which did not count for delegates. The former ambassador notched her first win in the Washington, D.C., primary on Sunday.

Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington will hold their respective nominating contests on March 12. Several other states follow on March 19, including Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio.

Trump’s campaign previously estimated in a memo that the former president would have enough delegates by March 12 at the earliest and March 19 at the latest to surpass the Republican National Committee’s 1,215 threshold.

AUTHOR

MARY LOU MASTERS

Contributor.

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Trump the ‘Unifier’, Trump the Individualist, Trump the Republican

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Super Tuesday voters gave Donald Trump clear wins in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont. Senator Ted Cruz won in his home state of Texas and the neighboring state of Oklahoma. Senator Marco Rubio won in Minnesota.

trump supporters youngTrump made a short statement at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida following the super Tuesday primary results:

I will say this, we have expanded the Republican party. When you look at what’s happened in South Carolina and you see the kind of numbers that we got in terms of extra people coming in. They came from the Democratic party… and they were never going to switch and they all switched. They were Independents. We’ve expanded the party. Look at the number of votes we had in that area as an example. Four years ago they had 390,000 or so votes. We doubled it. We’re almost 800,000. The Democrats went down.

There’s much less enthusiasm for the Democrats. I’m a unifier. I know people will find this hard to believe. Once we get this finished, I’m going to go after one person on the assumption she is allowed to run. I don’t know if she will be allowed to run. I don’t think Marco will be able to beat her. I think Ted will have a very hard time… I just tell you this, we are going to be a much finer party, a much — we’re going to be a unified party. We are going to be a much bigger you can see that happening. We’re going to be a much bigger party. our party is expanding.

All you have to do is take a look at the primary states where I’ve won. Much larger number. I think we’ll be more inclusive and more unified. I think we’ll be a much bigger party. I think we’re going to win in November.

It is clear that Donald Trump has energized the electorate, driving voters to the polls to support the Republican party in record numbers.

Ayn Rand wrote a short nineteen page paper asking: What is the basic issue facing the world today? Rand, in her paper makes the case that, “The basic issue in the world today is between two principles: Individualism and Collectivism.” Rand defines these two principles as follows:

  • Individualism – Each man exists by his own right and for his own sake, not for the sake of the group.
  • Collectivism – Each man exists only by the permission of the group and for the sake of the group.

It is becoming clearer that on November 8th the battle will be between a Collectivist (either Hillary Clinton or Senator Bernie Sanders) and an Individualist, Donald J. Trump.

French historian Alexis de Tocqueville  (1805-1859)  wrote, “The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money.”

Let the people chose which path they will follow. Will they follow those who “bribe the people with their own money” or those who remain dedicated to preserving the Republic? That is the basic issue facing America today.

gop delegate count

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