“Progress, but No Time for Celebration”

‘Perhaps it is the end of the beginning’ were the words that Winston Churchill used to describe a very different conflict to the one we are currently in. When Churchill described the end of the preliminary battles of the Second World War he was speaking from a continent whose young men and women were signed up in their entirety, with whole economies and populations enrolled in the fight against Nazi fascism.

Today we are of course in a very different war. And not only because so few young men and women are in uniform (and ever fewer these days in the United Kingdom). This war is different for a whole range of reasons. Today’s enemies rarely congregate in vast stadia to remind us of their size and power. They control vast territories but few countries. Rarely if ever do they wear a uniform. And hardest of all to comprehend is the fact that this time very many of our enemies are inside our own societies – with a larger group still whose sympathies they believe themselves able to call upon.

The nature of this conflict is still misunderstood now as it has been from day one: we are in a worldwide, multidimensional war against radical Islam. That so many people do not want to admit that is perhaps the greatest demonstration of our potential eventual failure. But there are signs that the battle is clearing.

Just this week the US has been leading an international coalition which is finally striking at the heart of Islamic State (IS) forces. At home in the UK one of our most notorious preachers of hate – Anjem Choudary – has been arrested along with almost a dozen of his followers. This is a moment when many people would hang up their boots and look forward to early retirement. Many of the dangers we have warned of – from Iraq to home and back again – have come disturbingly true. What some people claimed to be scare-mongering is now everyone’s daily news diet. Beheadings in London. Beheadings in Iraq. Crucifixions in Syria. Attempted beheadings in Australia. All these things, and more, have come to pass.

But here at HJS we know that this is not time for celebration or for back-patting. To think things are over now would not just be wrong – it would betray an atrocious error of timing. It is true that ISIS is now on the back-foot. But ISIS is only one group. A year ago nobody had heard of them. A year from now there will be another such group of which we have not yet heard. Domestically we have had a track record of allowing hate preachers to roam free for years before locking them up or otherwise getting rid of them. Omar Bakri, Abu Hamza. There will be others next year. And we actually do know some of their names.

But the point is that while celebrating the incremental steps that our societies are making to understanding the conflict we are in, we do not believe that this is anywhere near an end. It may well be that politicians and publics are catching up with us. But such an event would only herald, at best, the end of the beginning. Ahead of us all are severe and dangerous paths. The Mullahs are still in power in Iran. Hamas are still in power in Gaza. Across the world extremist groups are feeding on the virtues of our societies as well as our flaws. They will be doing so for years to come. So yes, a time for some recognition and some correction, but also a time to realise that we are not yet out of the first act. We do not know how many acts there will be. But people should be under no illusion, and take refuge in no false comforts. This one, to put it in theatre vernacular, looks set to run and run.