Helping Protect Itself Against Iran, Israel Helps Protect Many Others by Hugh Fitzgerald

Not long before tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an unprecedented high point, with the possibility looming of a war that could engulf many other countries besides those two, Israel located a secret Iranian site in Beirut, right near the airport, in the midst of a heavily-populated area (surrounded by thousands of civilians, as a way to discourage Israeli air attacks). The site, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu, holds radioactive material and missiles. The Israelis, after all, have been running circles around the Iranians for years. They assassinated, one after the other, four key Iranian nuclear scientists right in the middle of Tehran. They concocted the fiendishly brilliant Stuxnet worm, the first computer program that caused real-world damage, for it sent messages to the computers it infected, the computers that were regulating Iran’s centrifuges, causing those computers to send messages that made the centrifuges speed up and destroy themselves and even damage other centrifuges. At the same time, other messages were sent back that the computer program was working perfectly.

The Israelis have destroyed, in Syria, hundreds of Iranian missiles, and have kept up the bombing of Iranian bases in Syria, and of Iranian soldiers on Syrian bases, preventing any kind of permanent Iranian outpost to be established. Some time ago Israeli agents carried out a night-time raid in a nondescript commercial district in Tehran, lasting six hours and 29 minutes, bringing away 50,000 pages of documents, and countless discs, which constituted the most important part of Iran’s secret nuclear archive, proving to the world that Iran had never abandoned its nuclear project, and had gotten much farther with it than the world previously believed.

In locating the site in Beirut, Israel again did not just itself but the entire Western world a great service. For the missiles whose guidance systems Iran is improving for Hezbollah, and the nuclear material that Iran is storing in Beirut, to be someday used either by its forces or possibly by Hezbollah, are not a threat only to Israel. Iran has designs on Yemen, as its proxy war against Saudi Arabia, that has already lasted several years, demonstrates. Iran would love to project and solidify Shi’a power in Yemen, right on the Arabian Sea, and to be able to threaten Saudi Arabia from the south, made easier by the porous border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Iran has a desire, too, to deal a direct blow to Saudi Arabia itself, as the richest and most powerful Sunni state, whose clerics talk of the Shi’a as if they were Infidels. That could mean supporting the discontented Shi’a in Saudi Arabia, some 15% of the population, almost all of whom are located in the Eastern Province, where the major oilfields are to be found. Iran also wants to take revenge on the United Arab Emirates, for helping to fight the Shi’a Houthis  in Yemen and, Iran now suspects, helping Arab separatists in Khuzestan, in southern Iran. Of course, Iran always proclaims as its chief enemy, more so even than Israel, the Great Satan, America. All of these countries have reason to be grateful to Israel for slowing down, for several years, Iran’s nuclear project. Stuxnet alone, a computer worm which destroyed 1,000 centrifuges at the Natanz Enrichment Plant, set back Iran’s nuclear project, according to the German scientist Ralph Langer, by as much as two years.

These acts of derring-do did not end there. Israeli agents managed to locate in a dusty part of Tehran the top secret Iranian nuclear archive, to break in, to blowtorch open the many steel doors, to go through the archives and select the huge amounts of material that they then spirited out of Iran to Israel. This archive offered proof to the world that the Iranians had continued to work on their nuclear project after they had supposedly stopped, and that they had gotten much farther along than anyone suspected.

During the last few years, the Iranians have tried to establish their own bases in Syria, and from there hoped both to threaten Israel from closer up than from Iran itself, and to supply Hezbollah with more advanced weapons. But no matter where they put those bases in Syria, and even when the Iranians tried to conceal themselves inside  Syrian bases, Israeli planes have always managed to find and to bomb them. And the Israelis have been staggeringly successful at interdicting Iranian weapons shipments meant for Hezbollah.

And now Israel has uncovered, and shown to the world, a secret Iranian facility near the airport in Beirut, which contains fissile material and machines to manufacture precision-guided missiles. At this point, the Iranians may wonder: do we empty the facility of its contents, or will Israel, with its uncanny spying ability, including eye-in-the-sky drones, be able to see everything that comes out of that building and where it is taken? And if, and when, these machines and that material are taken out of the facility, and are in the open, will it not be easier for Israel to bomb both? Perhaps, by making public its knowledge of this facility, the Israelis are hoping to lure the Iranians into doing just that. It is hard for the Iranians, who have so often been outsmarted by the Israelis, to know what to do. What can Israeli spy drones and spy planes and spy satellites and human spies, find out? Do the Iranians try to smuggle the material and machines out, or do they keep everything as it is, but move even more civilians into close proximity to the building, in the hope that this civilian presence will dissuade Israel from attacking it?

As the Iranians have discovered, to their great displeasure, wherever or whomever or whatever they try to hide from Israel, the Israelis always find them out. The Israelis identified, and then assassinated, four of Iran’s top nuclear scientists; they found, and sabotaged, the computers that controlled the centrifuges at Natanz, they found the secret nuclear archives in Tehran and spirited them away, they found and bombed Iranian bases in Syria, and they found, and showed to the world, the once-secret Iranian facility in Beirut. Iran’s rulers are surely in a quandary.

All of this limits Iran’s aggressive plans. Israel has accomplished these feats in order, of course, to protect itself. But the rest of the West, and some Arab states, too, should recognize that they also benefit from these fantastic acts of human and technological derring-do. Some, at least, from agents in Langley to princes in Riyadh, know enough to be grateful. And so should we.

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EDITORS NOTE: This Jihad Watch column is republished with permission. © All rights reserved.

Florida’s Congressional Delegation not helping lower electricity bills

In an email, Thomas J. Pyle, President of the American Energy Alliance, released its Energy Scorecard. Pyle noted:

Major pieces of legislation get the spotlight and shape the national debate. But each year, Congress considers hundreds of smaller measures that have a big impact on our country and our lives.

That’s where the American Energy Alliance comes in.

AEA analyzes and tracks these bills, including what they do and who co-sponsored them — and shares those summaries and key points with supporters like you. When it comes time for a vote, AEA tracks that, too, and includes it all in a scorecard for each Member of Congress.

With the AEA Energy Scorecard, you can see — at a single glance — where your representatives stood on the most important energy votes of the year … and who the true energy champions are in Congress.

The higher the score on the AEA Energy Scorecard, the more you can count on that elected official to advance a Pro-American energy agenda.

Electricity Local reports:

Residential electricity bills in Florida

  • Residential electricity bills in FL [1]
    • The average monthly residential electricity bill in Florida is $123, which ranks 9th in the U.S.
    • This average monthly residential electricity bill in Florida is 14.95% greater than the national average monthly bill of $107.
    • Average monthly residential electricity bills in the U.S. range from approximately $75 to $203.

Residential electricity rates in Florida

  • Residential electricity rates in FL [1]
    • Residential electricity rates in Florida average 11.42¢/kWh, which ranks the state 22nd in the nation.
    • The average residential electricity rate of 11.42¢/kWh in FL is 3.87% less than the national average residential rate of 11.88¢/kWh.
    • The approximate range of residential electricity rates in the U.S. is 8.37¢/kWh to 37.34¢/kWh.

Residential electricity consumption in Florida

  • Residential electricity consumption in FL [1]
    • Residential electricity consumption in Florida averages 1,081 kWh/month, which ranks 13th in the U.S.
    • This average monthly residential electricity consumption in FL is 19.71% greater than the national average monthly consumption of 903 kWh/month.
    • Monthly residential electricity consumption in the U.S. ranges from approximately 531 kWh/mo. to 1,254 kWh/mo.

How do the members of the Florida delegation vote on energy legislation? Here are their voting records:

State Results: Florida

STATE 
DISTRICT 
NAME 
PARTY 
SCORE 

It appears that the Florida delegation, especially the Democrat Party members, are not interested in helping lower the electric bills of Floridians.

VIDEO: President Donald Trump Tours the Progress on the Border Wall in San Diego, CA

In San Diego, California, President Donald J. Trump got an up-close look yesterday at the great progress being made on new and replacement border wall.

“We’re building it at a breakneck speed,” the President said after receiving an update from Border Patrol officials. All told, the wall will “be over 400 miles. And we think we can get it close to 500 miles by the end of next year,” he added.

President Trump’s goal has always been to stop illegal immigration and protect the American people. Now, with border wall construction underway, the results are undeniable: Illegal border crossings plummeted 30 percent between July and August.

“Nobody is coming in unless they’re coming in legally. They’re coming in through a process,” the President said.

© All rights reserved.

World Arsonist: The Islamic Republic of Iran

Iranians are the proud spiritual descendants of King Cyrus the Great, the author of the first Charter of Human Rights. Some of Cyrus’ children live in the patch of land called Iran. The overwhelming majority—free humans with human beliefs—live in every country, city, and village of the earth.
These world-wide people, one and all, irrespective of nationality, color, or creed are Iranians because they all adhere to the Cyrus Charter; they practice and defend its lofty tenets; and, transfer this precious humanity’s treasure to the next generation.

Islamic invasion

Fact. Muhammad died and did not leave a written will (he was illiterate, that’s understandable). So, his high-ranking disciples began scheming for leadership. The Shi’as claim that Muhammad verbally indicated that Ali was to lead his Ummah. Well, 90% of the Muslims say no he did not and the Caliphate system was the way to go.

Fact.  Shortly after Muhammad’s death, Ali was killed by some disgruntled Muslim, for whatever reason. Violence was part and parcel of Islam from the word go.

Then there was a battle between Yazid’s forces and Hussein. Wasn’t there? Hussein and his band of relatives-followers got butchered. Well, friends, that’s the nature of the beast called war.

To this day, Shia’s bloody themselves, their children, even their babies with self-flagellation in a most horrid way in “aza dari” (mourning) for what happened to Hussein. What good does this do, other than perpetuate a sense of defeatism and fanaticism that mitigates against Iranians freeing themselves from the yoke of the conniving mullahs?

The long-suffering Iranian people must put the past behind them and use their excellent talents to not only join the advanced world, but lead it. What a shame to remain stuck in this horrid mentality of victimization. Iranians deserve better than being manipulated by a bunch of mullahs who have been having a great ride on the back of the ignorant poor.

Forget the afterlife and pay attention to the plight of the suffering masses. Stop playing politics with the lives of the people. Those responsible for this sham have no heart and no shame. Let the bygones be bygones and use the marvelous human potential of Iranians to provide them with the opportunities to better themselves and their families.

In most other lands conquered by Islam, the conquered peoples have lost their own identity and heritage and embraced the ways of their new rulers, under an “Arab” identity. Conversely, in Iran a band of indigenous victims, “infected” by Islam, have mindlessly turned on their Iranian countrymen and tried to rob them of their remaining ancient heritage. It is exactly this savage minority that has established an oppressive tyrannical rule and wields power against the Iranian people. Yet, even under the rule of the Mullahs, the overwhelming majority of Iranians of various ethnicities and religions remain faithful to their ancient creed – a creed that was given to the world by Zoroaster.

The most important step in the direction of emancipation of our people is the establishment of the rule of law — not barbaric sharia — to grant all Iranians, male and female, young and old, of all beliefs equal rights.

We, the Persians, have absolutely no dog in this long-dead Islamic fight. Let’s look forward and do something about the sorry plight of our people today so that future generation recall this generation of Iranians as trailblazers who had the courage to break from the bleak past and launch a bright future.

Now, as far the as Western Civilization is concerned, they have been appeasing these packs of wolves. Appeasement inevitably emboldens aggressors. The wanton Islamic Republic of Iran has been on a murder and mayhem path for decades encouraged by an appeasing world.

Just a few reminders. The murderous villains took the life of several thousand Americans during the Iraq conflict without being punished for it. More recently they downed an American drone in international air space without even getting a slap on their long blood-stained wrist.

Then, they started piracy in the Persian Gulf. Nothing happened.

The murdering arsonists are on an ever-escalating path of death and destruction to achieve their deadly objective of ruling the region and destroying Israel.

Looking the other way and appeasing aggression will inevitably bring about greater pain. When the aggressor is even provided with hundred and fifty billion dollars, as Obama did, then there is no surprise to see that the empowered Mullahs are continuing their rampage.

Continue appeasing? Wait until they get their bloody hands on their long-cherished ultimate weapon. To state an overused cliché: keep kicking the can down the road, like both George Bush and Obama did, and let someone else worry about it.

Well, that someone else now is President Trump. Is he going to follow suit or is he going to do the painful thing that his predecessors had eschewed?

A tough call. A truly tough call. A call that must be answered now or at a much tougher time ahead.

© All rights reserved.

RELATED STUDY: Is Islam Arab imperialism?

RELATED ARTICLE: Following Iranian Airstrikes On Oilfields, Trump Deploys Troops To Saudi Arabia

Saudi Oil Field Crisis

The conflict in the Middle East, among Shiites and Sunnis goes back to the time of prophet Muhammad himself.

When prophet Muhammad died, the infighting started in earnest among the various factions. Each demanding Bay’a (pledge of allegiance) with another clan. People jockeyed for power and did their Muslim-best to destroy their competition. Ali, Muhammad’s son-in-law was elbowed out of the way by the more powerful disciples of the prophet and had to wait his turn to head the already fractured and feuding Ummah. Several of the faithful resented the fact that Ali was not allowed to take over the leadership. Some felt victimized by Umar and his powerful conspirators and hated Ali for not standing and fighting like a man. Some real stand-and-fight Muslims decided that Ali should be punished and he was knifed to death on his way to the mosque

The death of Ali was the real stirring of the hornet’s nest, so to speak. All kinds of power struggle, infighting and bloodletting started among the followers of the religion of peace. To cut to the chase, the conflict in the Middle East has been ongoing and has not been settled. Most likely, it will never be settled.

To fully comprehend the scope of this new development in the Middle East and point fingers as to who is responsible for the Saudi oil field attacks, we need to understand their involvement and invasion against the Shiite Houthi insurgency in Yemen. In March 2015 when a Saudi Arabia-led alliance of ten mostly Arab states launched an operation of air strikes against the Houthis, this clash began. Saudi Arabia, considers the Houthis rebels as an Iranian proxy, therefore, they are doing everything within their power to counter the Islamic Republic’s influence.

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), titled, Yemen: Civil War and Regional Intervention has shed some light on a very convoluted issue. This report offers information and data about the continuing dilemma in Yamen.

According to this report:

“Overall, after five years of military operations against the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition, it would appear that the Houthis are better equipped with sophisticated weaponry than in previous conflicts against its rivals. According to one observer, “We have witnessed a massive increase in capability on the side of the Houthis in recent years, particularly relating to ballistic missiles and drone technology…. The current capability is far more advanced than anything the Yemeni armed forces had before the civil war.” In July 2019, the Houthis publicly displayed cruise missiles and UAVs in their arsenal and, according to one analysis, the Houthis are “revealing capabilities that Iran has been developing secretly for years.”

In May 2019, the Houthi faction declared they would target both the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s vulnerable facilities. Because the Houthis are supported by the Islamic regime in Iran, all the fingers are pointed at the Iranian regime.

According to Thomas Juneau of International Affairs:

“The Houthis, however, are not Iranian proxies; Tehran’s influence in Yemen is marginal. The civil war in Yemen is driven first and foremost by local and political factors, and is neither an international proxy war nor a sectarian confrontation. It is primarily a domestic conflict, driven by local grievances and local competition for power and resources.”

Conclusion

There is no doubt that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a leading state sponsor of terrorism worldwide. There is no doubt that the Islamic regime supports and finances many proxies in the region. There is also no question that the Iranian people have been experiencing Islamic justice by being arrested, raped, maimed and murdered for the crimes they have never committed. The wanton Islamic Republic of Iran has been at a murder and mayhem path for decades encouraged by an appeasing world.

Just a few reminders: The murderous villains took the life of several thousand Americans during the Iraq conflict without being punished for it. More recently they downed an American drone in the international air space without even getting a slap on their long blood-stained wrist. Then, they started piracy in the Persian Gulf. Nothing happened.

That said, yet, there are some diehard (MEK) Mujahidin Khalgh supporters who are pushing the US to go to war with Iran on behalf of the Saudis. Saudi Arabia started a war in Yemen that they cannot win. The Islamic Republic is facing serious setbacks with sanctions. It is just a matter of time for the regime to fall. The situation inside Iran is dire indeed.

Saudi Arabia is not our friend. In fact, they are America’s greatest nightmare. They are involved in all aspects of American life in the US and “Estimates are that the Saudis fund up to 80% of American mosques.” Let that sink in.

© All rights reserved.

RELATED ARTICLE: Trump Hints at New Iran Sanctions, Prefers to Avoid ‘Ultimate Option’ of War

Why We Are Bogged Down in Afghanistan

“Why We Are Bogged Down in Afghanistan,” by Pamela Geller, American Thinker, September 17, 2019:

Last Friday, I spoke at the Eagle Council in St. Louis, where both the speaker roster and the audience were full of stalwart, indomitable patriots. One of the patriots there was Mark Schneider, President of Gen IV Nuclear Inc. in Chesapeake, Virginia, who served for twenty years iand [sic] was on the ground in Iraq and Kuwait.  He offered a disquieting insight into an important but overlooked reason why our lengthy military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have borne so little fruit.

Schneider was in the United States military from 1998 to 2018, years during which the primary threat that our nation faced was the global jihad, which was, after all, the reason why we had our forces in Iraq and Kuwait, as well as Afghanistan, in the first place. We had a long and fascinating conversation, but the most important takeaway was this: I asked him, “In all that time, from 1998 to 2018, were you given one class, or even one lesson, or were recommended one book, anything at all, that discussed Islam’s doctrine of warfare against and the subjugation of unbelievers?

No. Not one.

Instead, all his training revolved around not offending Afghans’ cultural sensitivities. Schneider went for detention operations; his cultural training included subjects such as “What is Ramadan?” He and other American personnel were told not to eat or drink during the day, even though none of them were Muslim. They were allowed to eat and drink during the day when they were on military bases, but not off; American personnel were discouraged from consuming food while off military installations.

The other thing that Schneider and other American troops were taught was that if they were anything other than Muslim or Christian, they had to say they were Muslim or Christian, because, they were told, the Afghans “didn’t like other religions.” They were only allowed to say they were adherents of the religions of the God of Abraham, although of course they were not to mention Judaism.

They were also told not to wave at people with their left hand or ever touch anyone with that hand, as it was considered unclean. Also, men were warned not to speak directly to women.

That was about it. Nothing, nothing whatsoever, on why the enemy was fighting against us. Nothing about how the enemy viewed the world and what he was trying to achieve. The first rule of warfare is “Know your enemy,” and our troops have been and are woefully ill-equipped in that regard. They know how not to wave at the enemy, but they know nothing about his motives and goals….

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EDITORS NOTE: This Jihad Watch column is republished with permission. © All rights reserved.

INTEL REPORT: Attack on Saudi Abqaiq oil refinery, Egypt and Tunisian elections

The number one topic this past week in the Arabic media is the attack against the Abqaiq oil refinery installations in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

Immediately after the attack the Shi’a Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility saying that they used ten drones to attack two separate refineries in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region.  These claims were made in a Houithi-produced video which circulated on the internet.

Subsequent news reports out of the U.S. have claimed that the drones and “cruise missiles” were fired from Iranian soil.  However, the Kuwaitis have complained that the missiles were fired from Iraqi soil right across the border from them.  From this standpoint Kuwait has asked for a closer military cooperation with Saudi Arabia without specifying what that would entail, but one would suspect an “Iron Dome” type of defense to take down anything flying over Kuwaiti territory.

On 17 September www.aljajeera.net published an article repeating the Houthi claim of responsibility without mentioning which refinery, or refineries, were hit or how many drones were used.  In this article the Houthis threated that “there is more to come,” then made the case that as long as Saudi Arabia is bombing them, the Saudis have to expect repayment in kind.

(Note that the Houthi claim of responsibility was met with some doubt in international quarters because this attack represented an exponential upgrade in technology and expertise than previously exhibited by the Houthis.  If the Houthis did in deed execute this attack, it would mean that they had the ability to strike anywhere in Saudi Arabia and/or the U.A.E.)

RELATED VIDEOS:

Saudi Arabia Says Oil Attacks ‘Unquestionably Sponsored by Iran’

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ANALYSIS: 

The entire south and east of Iraq is predominantly Shi’a, and a number of Iranian militias and Iranian-sponsored Iraqi Shi’a militias have been operating in that area since the U.S. invasion of Iraqi in 2003.  The Iranian-sponsored Iraqi Shi’a militias are called heshd sha’bi meaning “popular mobilization” and it was one of these groups that recently fired a missile into the protected so-called “Green Zone” of Baghdad which contains most of the Foreign Embassies, including that of the U.S.  Therefore, it is not inconceivable that one of these groups operating in S.E. Iraq could have fired the drones and/or missiles from Iraqi soil.

That being said, though, whether it was the Iranian-backed Houthis of Yemen, or the heshd sha’bi of Iraq, or the Iranians themselves, in either case Iran is responsible.  The equipment, technology, and expertise to handle a weapons system of this sort and the skills to pull off such a precise hit from a targeting standpoint could have come only from a state actor.  This action is in line with Iran’s behavior over the past several months of using its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and other countries to do its dirty work.  It can therefore claim deniability, though the technology, equipment, and targeting instructions were given to said proxies by Iran.

What Iran is trying to do here is to deliver a message that if they cannot sell their petroleum resources to the outside world, then neither can any of America’s allies in the region.  The Iranian Mullah’s may be also trying to shore up their sagging popularity on the home front by trying to play macho in the international arena by seeing how far they can go in terms of giving the American giant a black eye without directly hitting an American installation or killing American personnel which could invite a response Iran has no desire to suffer.

TUNISIAN ELECTIONS

Tunisia held presidential elections this past Sunday, 15 September.  The final results according to the independent Tunisian election commission were reported on 17 September by www.aljazeera.net .  According to these results, established politicians fell victim to the public’s contempt as only 45% of the electorate bothered to show up at the polls.  As a result, a couple of outsiders were able to grab the top two spots out of a field of 26, and will compete in the run-off election in a couple of weeks.

The winners were a lawyer named Qays Sa’eyiid running as an independent and garnering 18.4% of the vote, and a businessman currently under arrest for corruption and money laundering named Nabeel al-Qarouri.  Running under the banner of the “heart of Tunis” party he garnered 15.5 % of the vote.

The candidate of the Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood-allied party an-nahdhah garnered 12.8 %, a significant downturn for that party which had won 34% and 33% in the previous two elections.

ANALYSIS:

In the days prior to the elections, the Tunisian candidates held televised debates American style, with all the candidates lined up on stage, seven at a time, standing behind lecterns.  That was an interesting development for an Arab country, and the decline in popularity of the Islamist party punctuates that.  Perhaps Tunisia will become the first Arab country to develop a real democracy, and a system of government that is neither a theocracy, monarchy, or a military dictatorship.  We can only hope.

But, things do not look so good in Egypt:

EGYPT

Arab Spring 2.0 may hit Cairo streets this Friday.  A well-known 26-year old singer/actor and “contractor” named Muhammad ‘Ali has used social media platforms to send out a flyer promoting a campaign to force current Egyptian President as-Sisi out of office.

This Muhammad ‘Ali was born in Denmark to an Egyptian father and an Iraqi mother and has been performing concerts all over Europe, as well as acting in movies and TV dramas.  In recent years he has been serving as a “contractor” for the Egyptian army.

Using social media, he has called upon Egyptians to take to the streets in every province of Egypt to demand as-Sisi’s removal, and according to a 16 September article on www.aljazeera.net his flyer has received “unprecedented response.”

He apparently believes that if his flyer can collect more than 30 million favorable hits, backed up by huge street protests this Friday, that as-Sisi and his retinue will have no choice but to step down.  Among his accusations against the as-Sisi regime is corruption.  He further claims that neither the army, police, or people want to see as-Sisi remain in power.

If the internet campaign does not convince as-Sisi to step down, then according to Muhammad ‘Ali the people should stage a peaceful protest in the streets for just one hour to deliver a stronger message.

For its part, according to a 16 September report on www.aljazeera.net the Egyptian ministry of interior has gone into high security alert mode.  They have cancelled all leave requests by officers, and ordered those currently on leave to return to work.  They are busy trying to gather the names of people who are forwarding these flyers and videos to others, and threatening to shut down the internet entirely.  The security officers have also been ordered to talk to their relatives and neighbors to instill fear in them should as-Sisi be removed saying that they will become “refugees on the borders of other countries because there is no alternative for leading Egypt” (than as-Sisi).

A left-wing activist Kemal Khaleel has already been arrested.

ANALYSIS:

In the fall of 2018 I wrote a short essay for the Clarion Project entitled Trouble in Egypt?

I reposted it along with some updates and expansions on www.intelreform.org several months ago under the title Arab Spring 2.0:  Will it come to Egypt?

Well, unfortunately it looks like my fact-based predictions are coming true.  Even if nothing transpires this weekend, the pressure will continue to build.  The carrot and stick approach as-Sisi is using will only go so far.  And, the regime’s arresting of leftists serves only to antagonize its only potential allies.

As I’ve pointed out before, as-Sisi has been trying to impose his brand of a “Disneyland Islam” on the country by brute force while pretending that real Islam does not exist out fear that the guardians of “real Islam” in al-Azhar will turn against him and replace him with a “true believer” more to their liking.

This Muhammad ‘Ali who is trying to stir up this new revolution is, as a singer and actor, a denizen of what I call in my book “Disneyland Islam,” and likely has no conception whatever of what “real Islam” entails.  The same can be said of the majority of the Egyptian people as over 80% of them still think that they want Shari’a law to be the law of the land without the faintest idea of what that means.  In 2013 they rejected a Shari’a government thinking that the “real Islam” being imposed by the Muslim Brotherhood government was not “real Islam.”

Boy, will they be surprised once again, because, as-Sisi’s security people are right:  If President as-Sisi is removed chaos will follow and unsavories will gain control of the country.  Those unsavories will be Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood variety.  It will be a repeat of the rejected Muhammad Mursi government, though with a more subtle, and gradual approach to imposing Shari’a.  It will also be closely allied to Turkey, Qatar, and possibly Iran.

And, as I pointed out before, if Egypt blows expect total chaos across the entire Middle East from Morocco to Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

‘Locked and Loaded’: Trump Threatens Iran

Smoke billows from an attacked Aramco oil facility in Saudi Arabia on September 14, 2019. – Cruise missiles and drones caused major damage to the state-owned energy giant that supplies five percent of the world’s oil. (Photo: AFP/Getty Images)After the massive attack on the Saudi’s national oil company Aramco, which the United States says Iran was behind, President Trump tweeted the U.S. was “locked and loaded” — presumably on Iranian targets. Does this mean war?

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!

What does “locked and loaded” mean? Amarco supplies five percent of the world’s oil.

According to Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff Marc Short, it means “several things,” adding:

“One thing it means is that America today under this president is far better prepared to handle these sorts of events because we’re now a net exporter of oil,” Short said. “This is not like the 1970s, the oil embargo or the 1990 … when Iraq invaded Kuwait … The United States is a net exporter producing 16 million barrels of oil a day and much of that has been because of the deregulatory agenda of this that has enabled so much of that.”

Listen to Clarion Project Editor Meira Svirsky and Arab Affairs Analyst and Shillman Fellow Ran Meir put this attack in context and answer the question: What if Trump backs down?

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EDITORS NOTE: This Clarion Project column with podcast is republished with permission. © All rights reserved.

VIDEO: A new look at a 2013 video on the weaponization of the term “Islamophobia”

This is a new and detailed analysis of an OSCE event in 2013 in Warsaw, where an attempt to extract a definition of Islamophobia from Islamic (OIC) sources as well as the Marxist think tank, Runnymede, was made with no success but a great deal of obfuscation. Why would that be?

This is an important video and shows the Marxist effort along with Islamic, to leave terms undefined in order to make them better and more broad weapons against all non-Muslims. And for that matter, all non-Marxists with the term, “Hate speech”.

More on that later though. For now, please take a few minutes and watch this.

Anyone wishing to develop a solid understanding of these tactics so well exemplified in this video, may wish to download Stephen Coughlin’s document on understanding the left here.

Stephen Coughlin, and Ned May from Gates of Vienna, do manage to show the extent of the dishonesty of this influential international agency. Also please note in the video, the book used by this body which contains the logos of the UN and EU, as well as the OSCE.

(For some reason, D.tube videos are not playing on Safari tonight. Please try this on Chrome or possibly Brave.)

Direct link.

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Dr. Mordechai Kedar – Speaking tour to the U.S. and Canada: April–May 2020

These days the Middle East is undergoing a profound and historic transformation. Many Middle East scholars are attempting to understand the developments in the Arab world and in the Arab and Muslim culture and religion. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear aspirations are the cause of a deep concern to many all over the world.

In the U.S. things are changing: the Jew-hatred genie comes out of the bottle and attacks against Jews become more and more frequent.

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, the Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Islam (under formation), a research associate of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a lecturer in the Department of Arabic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Israel, is one of Israel’s leading figures in understanding the Arab world. Until recently he was the Middle East analyst of the daily newspaper “Makor Rishon” as well as other publications. Dr. Kedar is a frequent guest in the Israeli, Arab and international media. In June of 2019, Dr. Kedar gave a very insightful presentation on Capitol Hill on “What Are the Obstacles to Finding Peace in the Middle East, and What Are the True Roots Behind the Hatred Between the Saudis and Iranians?”

Dr. Kedar will be on a speaking tour, visiting North America, between Pessah and Shavuot 5780, April 16 to May 26, 2020. He is available to be booked for lectures and various presentations. He can be a scholar-in-residence for a weekend or give presentations and lectures during the weekdays.

His lectures are about the Middle East, Israel’s existence within the Middle Eastern environment, the struggle over Jerusalem, Anti-Semitism in the Islamic world and Iran, combatting the BDS etc. Please see the list of topics below.

A number of Dr. Kedar’s lectures in English are on YouTube.

Last June, Kedar gave a 2-hour interview to JBS’ Rabbi Mark Golub:

Part 1:

Part 2:

You might have watched Dr. Kedar’s famous interview on al-Jazeera about the right of Jews to build in Jerusalem:

In May 2012 Dr. Kedar spoke in a conference about the problems of the Israeli public diplomacy

Dr. Kedar’s weekly analysis about the Middle East on Israel National News.

Dr. Kedar would like to offer his lectures (see list below) to Synagogues, Churches, Mosques, universities, colleges, schools, community centers, organizations etc. He does not need a 5 star hotel and prefers to stay overnight with a family. Dr. Kedar travels in economy class and his fee is reasonable.

Dr. Kedar is planning to be in North America between April 16 and May 26, 2020.

If you would like to view a sample lecture or if you have any ideas or suggestions please feel free to contact Dr. Kedar at the e-mail: kedar.tour@gmail.com

Dr. Mordechai Kedar
Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Islam (under formation);
Research Associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies;
Lecturer in the Department of Arabic,
Bar-Ilan University, Israel.
Phone in Israel: +972-544-778-908
US Mobile (while in North America): 917-868-3551
Kedar.tour@gmail.com

Possible Topics:

Jewish Issues:

1. Jew-Hatred / Antisemitism: roots, causes and ways to deal with it
2. Israel and the Diaspora: the widening gap
3. Against All Odds – A miracle named Israel
4. The European Jewry – where to?
5. The situation of European and American Jewry – similarities and differences
6. The mass migration to Europe and the Jewish communities

Israeli Issues:

1. The Results of the 2019 General Elections
2. The Controversy in Israel over Judea, Samaria and Gaza
3. Right, Center and Left in Israel

Israel and its neighbors:

1.Trump, Putin and the Middle East – What Can We Expect?
2. Israel at 72: Achievements and Challenges
3. Israel in a Changing Middle East – Challenges and Opportunities
4. Israel and the Palestinian Issue – Possible Solutions
5. The Middle East – where to?
6. Peace in the Middle East – What does it Need?
7. Iran – Where to?

Understanding Arab and Muslim Culture:

1. “The Arab Spring” – Why did it fail?
2.Tribalism in the Middle East and its influence on politics and state building.
3. Turkey – What went wrong?
4. What is the struggle over Jerusalem all about?
5. Why do many Muslims hate the West?
6. Understanding the Iranians – What motivates the Ayatollahs?
7. Hezbollah – Ideology, politics and modus operandi.
8. Hamas – Ideology, politics and modus operandi.
9. Islam – A culture in crisis.
10. Islam in Democratic State – The Islamic Movements in Israel.
11. Democracy in the Middle East – Opportunity or danger?
12. Islamic Radicalism – Causes, ideology and ways to face it.
13. Sunnis and Shi’is – Why do they hate each other so?
14. Islamic Women between Tradition and Modernity.
15. Palestinian Political Illustrations – Cartoons and messages.
16. The Right of Return in the Palestinian National Ethos.
17. Hizballah, Hamas, and Israel – Living with the enemy.
18. Clash of Values: Gender and Family Issues – Sources of tension between Islam and the West.
19. Arab Intellectuals – Where are they?
20. Arab Mass Media – their role in ME societies.
21. The Other Voice in the Arab World – My personal experience.

Lecture Subjects Concerning Military Intelligence:

1. Flawed intelligence assessments and mistaken policies resulting from cultural differences.
2. What motivates Arab states, societies and armies?
3. How to understand the Arab state media?
4. Major mistakes made by the Western coalition in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Lectures on Israeli domestic issues can also be considered.

On Domes and Drones

Will the growing use of drones by the Gaza-based terror groups make the billion dollar Iron Dome and anti-tunnel barrier useless—or at least irrelevant?

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (The more things change, the more they are the same.)Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, French novelist (1849).


Departing briefly from the upcoming elections, Sunday’s media headlines conveyed the news that a drone, launched from the Gaza Strip, had attacked an IDF position near the border, with an explosive charge. This incident follows a similar one, several months ago, when a Gazan-based terror group, Islamic Jihad, attempted to drop an explosive device on an IDF tank.

“Unrealistic” realists?

Although fortunately, the damage caused in these attacks was negligible, it would be a grave error to dismiss the scope and scale of the prospective threat that drones could present.

Of course, compared to the menace of massive barrages of rockets/ missiles on the one hand, and infiltration by bands of heavily armed commandoes via underground tunnels, on the other, the danger posed currently by drones may seem relatively minor.

However, we should recall that this was much the case for those very perils back in 2005, when Israel undertook the ill-advised unilateral abandonment of Gaza. Back then, when the most destructive weapon at the disposal of the terrorist organizations was a primitive rocket with a range of 5 km and an explosive charge of 5 kg, today’s situation seemed inconceivable!

Indeed, had anyone then predicted that, a little over a decade later, Israel would be faced with an arsenal of missiles with ranges of over 100 km and warheads of over 100 kg, with a warren of underground attack tunnels and with nascent naval forces, they would have been dismissed as unrealistic scaremongers. Sadly, of course, recalcitrant realities would have proved them right! (No pun intended.)

Accordingly, Israel has been forced to spend literally billions of dollars to devise defensive countermeasures (such as the Iron Dome missile defense system and the subterranean anti-tunnel barrier) to contend with threats that were barely imaginable less than a decade and half ago.

Aggressive measures & defensive countermeasures

Moreover, I have long been at pains to underscore that no matter how successful Israel’s defensive countermeasures may prove to be, there is little doubt that the Palestinian-Arab terror groups will eventually devise some offensive measure to circumvent it.

Indeed, six years ago I cautioned: “Defensive weapon systems, however, sophisticated and effective, inflict no cost on determined adversaries and hence can never deter them from attempting to devise methods to circumvent or overwhelm those defenses.”

In similar vein, almost five years later I wrote: “Every time the Gazan terrorists developed some offensive tactic, Israel devised some countermeasure that was designed to thwart the attacks, rather than prevent them being launched in the first place.”

I detailed the sequence of aggressive measures and defensive countermeasures that have emerged hitherto: “Thus, suicide attacks resulted in a security fence and secured crossings; which led to the development of enhanced rocket and missile capabilities; which led to the development of the multimillion dollar Iron Dome; which led to the burrowing of an array of underground attack tunnels; which led to the construction of a billion dollar subterranean barrier; which led to the use of incendiary kites and balloons that have reduced much of the rural South, adjacent to the Gaza border, to blackened charcoal”.

The danger of drones

In this context, I issued repeated warnings as to the use of drones to thwart existing missile defenses and anti-tunnel barriers—see for example here , here and here–and pointed to the danger they may entail: “…it takes little imagination to envisage the deployment of future modes of Judeocidal assault on the Jewish state and its citizens—such as a possible drone swarm carrying explosive—perhaps even some non-conventional—charges, to be detonated on, or over, some luckless Jewish community .”

Fortunately today, there appear to be some signs of greater awareness regarding the potential perils posed by the drone threat and a sense of greater unease as to what they may portend. Thus, following the previously mentioned attempt, several months ago, one military analyst—echoing my earlier concerns—wrote: “Security agencies will overlook the minor impact of the device …and will instead focus on the implied threat that a larger or more ominous payload would represent.”

Following the latest attack, a well-known military correspondent commented:

“…terrorist groups in the blockaded coastal enclave are continuing to innovate and find new weapons to attack Israel’s military…The drone attack over the weekend was a dangerous escalation”, and warned that: “This weekend’s attack is a wake-up call that Israel must take seriously because drones, like rockets, pose threats not only to troops but to the thousands of residents who live in communities near the border… both need to be met with an iron fist.”

Eliminate Hamas; re-garrison Gaza?

Under the headline “Israel must launch a campaign in Gaza to counter dangerous drone threat”, another leading pundit expressed similar sentiments: “UAVs operated from Gaza that can drop explosives endanger not only IDF troops but Israeli communities bordering the Strip as well.”

Counselling a robust response, he wrote: “Israel must act as vigorously against this threat from the coastal enclave as it does against similar attacks from the north… The real solution to this challenge, like other threats originating from Gaza, is to restore Israeli deterrence and change the policy of containment.”

Sadly, none of these generic endorsements of assertiveness actually provided a prescription, even in broad outline, of actionable policy that could break the deadly cycle of aggressive measures and defensive countermeasures.

Expressing his frustration at this, one exasperated talk-backer wrote: “Why Israel allows Hamas to continue to up its threat is beyond understanding.” Astutely he diagnosed: “The cost of constantly countering Hamas attacks is far more than Hamas’ cost to conduct them” and advocated “Israel …must act decisively and boldly to eliminate Hamas once and for all…Eliminate Hamas and re-garrison the Gaza strip.”

Doubtless, at first glance such a stark proposal may seem overly extreme. However, eschewing it for over a quarter-century has allowed what was once a terrorist nuisance to develop into an emerging strategic threat.

The harsh dilemma

It is, of course, quite plausible that Israel will eventually find some (probably very expensive) measure to counter the drone threat. But it is no less plausible, that the Gaza-based terror groups will develop some measure to overcome, or by-pass it—until the Jewish residents, who live in the South, find they no longer can—or wish to—continue to subject themselves and their families to the ongoing trauma of unending terror attacks. Then Israel will find itself confronted with a harsh dilemma: There will either be Arabs in Gaza or Jews in the Negev, but in the long run, there will not be both!

To avert the specter of the depopulation of the South by Jews, Israel must come to terms with the grim realities that prevail in Gaza—and realize:

(a) The population of Gaza is not the victim of its leadership, but the crucible in which that leadership was formed and from which it emerged.

(b) The only long-term solution for Gaza is not its reconstruction, but its deconstruction.

(c) The only way Israel can ensure who rules Gaza is to rule it itself.

(d) The only way Israel can rule over Gaza without ruling over “another people” is to remove that “people” from the area over which it is imperative for it to rule.

(e) The only way Israel can remove the Gazan population from Gaza without forcible expulsion is by a largescale initiative for the incentivized emigration of the non-belligerent population and afford them an opportunity of a more secure and prosperous life elsewhere.

Could anything be more compelling?

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RELATED VIDEO: John Bolton Out — and the Consequences, unveiling what’s at stake for U.S. national security.

France Betrays U.S. With $15 Billion Iran Bailout

France slapped the U.S. in the face with its $15 billion Iran bailout offer, which would serve to undo all the progress made by the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran. What should the consequences be?

Listen to Clarion’s National Security Analyst and Shillman Fellow Ryan Mauro discuss this on I24 News as well as the latest reports that Hezbollah has now moved its precision missiles intended for Israel into civilian areas.

Israel’s response to the Iranian and Hezbollah missile build up in Syria and Lebanon is now being publicly defended by Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Amid the missile build ups by Iran and Hezbollah have come the disclosure by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran performed experiments of nuclear weapons at a previously undisclosed site.

Watch here:

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Michelle Malkin: Sixty Reasons Why the U.S. Refugee Program is a Danger to Us!

Malkin’s timing is excellent because as I write this the Trump Administration is wrestling with an important legal requirement.  In the coming weeks they must decide how many refugees (if any!) will be admitted to the US in FY2020 which begins in 21 days!

Every year since the Refugee Act of 1980 was signed into law by Jimmy Carter, the President determines how many UN-selected refugees will be welcomed to a town near you.  Needless to say the refugee industry is in high gear putting pressure on the White House to get the numbers as high as they can (they are demanding 90,000) because the refugee contractors financial survival depends on high numbers!

Therefore, the timing of the release of Michelle Malkin’s new book couldn’t be better.

Here, at Breitbart, she pulls no punches and tells us about it and directs your attention to 60 reasons (60 Islamists we welcomed to become ‘new Americans’ while they came to do us harm.)

By the way, Trump can legally set the refugee ceiling for FY2020 at Zero!

Exclusive — Michelle Malkin: 60 Terrifying Reasons Trump Is Right to Reduce Refugees

Here are three facts that the most hysterical voices attacking the Trump administration’s proposal to radically reduce or freeze refugee admissions don’t want you to know:

1) They make billions of dollars off the federal refugee resettlement racket;

2) They are protected by the Open Borders Inc. media, which routinely whitewashes the gobsmacking financial self-interest of the “Let Them All In” leeches; and

3) They are never held accountable when untold numbers of the world’s most wretchedly violent and aggrieved refugees come here to sabotage the American Dream.

While left-wing religious groups, tax-exempt non-profits tied or allied to George Soros, and the amnesty-shilling Catholic Church scream “No hate, no fear, everyone is welcome here!” at the top of their lungs, American neighborhoods are being overrun by dangerous foreign criminals and jihad plotters.

David Miliband, president and CEO of International Rescue Committee, attacked the White House plan to slash refugee numbers from an Obama-era high of 100,000 to less than the current historic low of 30,000 as “inhumane.”

Is it because cutting the numbers would cut in to Miliband’s first-class travel and business lunch tabs? Malkin Truth-O-Meter: mostly likely true!

What Miliband neglects to mention in his diatribe against President Trump that his organization is one of 9 behemoth government contractors that works with the hostile United Nations and encrusted State Department social justice warriors to import thousands of new refugees every year with little input from the communities in which they are dumped. Miliband earns nearly a million-dollar salary*** and by one estimate, IRC has raked in nearly $900 million in refugee resettlement profits over the last decade. When you cut through the Statue of Liberty smokescreen of the open borders “charities,” the math is clear:

Reduced refugees means reduced cash flow.

Zero refugees means zero cash flow.

Why should taxpayers continue to see their hard-earned money siphoned away to feed the Trump Resistance Machine and Democrat Party’s Permanent Ruling Majority Project?

There are even more compelling reasons to throttle the refugee flow. According to the logic-twisting, ICE-doxxing cheerleaders at the New York Times, refugee reductions are the real threat to our nation because if we don’t keep importing hordes of Muslim translators from Iraq or Afghanistan, it would “undermine” our national security.

This is just plain ass-backwards.

Continue reading here to see the sixty reasons….

***And see my post here at RRW a few days ago about the push to admit more Iraqi and Afghan translators.   You will see the proof of Miliband’s obscene salary!

By the way, I am seeing a huge push by the contractors and their media lackeys to pressure the President at this very moment to agree to admit tens of thousands of UN-selected refugees to be your new neighbors.

***Alert***

Editor’s note:

In the near future, we will be moving ‘Frauds and Crooks’ to a new, secure hosting company. There will be times when the blog may be unavailable, but rest assured that we are not going away. Once we begin the move, it may take a few days to complete the move. Please be patient and check back.

In the meantime visit RRW by clicking here.

EDITORS NOTE: This Frauds, Crooks and Criminals column is republished with permission. © All rights reserved.

September 17th Israeli Election: Will the Right snatch defeat from the jaws of victory…again?

The continued existence of the Left as a viable force in Israeli politics, despite the manifest failure of its political credo, is the gravest indictment of the Israeli Right.

For by… faith more firm in their unhallowed principles, the bad have fairly earned a victory over the weak, the vacillating, inconsistent good. – William Wordsworth (1770 – 1850).

Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of the upcoming September 17 elections is the fact that they are taking place at all—after the “ Right” managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of almost certain victory . But no less astounding is the fact that the “Left” actually has plausible chance of winning them!

(Of course, in the Israeli political context, the Left- Right rift is not along the usual welfare state vs free market divide in the socio-economic sphere; but more along the dove-hawk split on security and foreign policy, particularly with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—with the former advocating Palestinian statehood and far-reaching territorial concessions by Israel, and the latter opposing them.)

Lack of intellectual depth and daring

Indeed, there can be no greater indictment of the political incompetence and impotence of the “Right” than fact that the Left still remains a viable force in Israeli politics. After all, not only has their entire political credo been proven, beyond shadow of reasonable doubt, to be a disastrous blunder that has wrought death and devastation on Jew and Arab alike, but the Right has been totally vindicated in warning of the calamitous consequences that the “Left’s” patently ill-founded folly would precipitate.

Perhaps more than anything, its failure to vanquish the “Left” reflects the lack of intellectual depth of the Right—and even more so, a lack of intellectual daring.

It is true that Israel has progressed and developed almost beyond recognition under Likud-led coalitions, which had held power the for first two decades of this century—except for the five years of the brief Ehud Barak incumbency and the slightly longer one of Ehud Olmert. In terms of its physical parameters, its architecture, its infrastructure, in terms of its economic stature, its cultural achievements, its diplomatic relations and its military prowess, it is almost unrecognizable from what it was in the last decade of the preceding century.

Yet despite all of this, the “Right” has not been able to inflict strategic defeat on its failed political rivals on the “Left”. In this regard, it is important to note that the point is not merely to defeat the “Left” at the polls but to remove any thought of implementation of its perilous prescription from the political discourse.

Inexplicable ideological capitulation

Indeed, in the wake of Oslo and up until recent years, the “Right” focused its energies (rightly) in condemning the dangerous defects of the concessionary policy of political appeasement and territorial withdrawal that the “Left” had embarked upon—without ever offering an actionable prescription of its own.

As a result, it found itself unable to respond effectively to the pointed and pertinent question from its adversaries on the “Left”: “So what’s your alternative?”

With no comprehensive, countervailing policy paradigm to promote or defend, the “Right” found itself gradually forced to give way under the weight of this irksome question, and to adopt increasing portions of the failed formula it had once rejected.

This process culminated in 2009 at Bar Ilan University, when Palestinian statehood was officially—albeit under duress—embraced.

Having crossed the ideological Rubicon into the “Land of the Left,” the “Right” found itself in what, for it, was largely uncharted territory.

This ideological capitulation by the “Right” is totally inexplicable—for it came about after all its censure of the “Left’s” wildly reckless doctrine had proven totally justified.

After all, by 2009, the jury was no longer out—or at least, should not have been. None of the promises of sweeping benefits, pledged by the architects of the land-for-peace initiative, launched by the “Left” over a decade and a half previously, had been fulfilled; while all the perils, warned of by its opponents on the “Right”, had indeed materialized.

Lebanonization or Balkanization?

Unwilling, or unable, to base its own strategic paradigm on an independent analysis of Israel’s strategic imperatives and deriving a consequent comprehensive policy prescription from that analysis, the “Right” took the “Left’s”  paradigm as a conceptual point of departure and attempted to formulate its alternative as a negation thereof.

The result was an unfortunate and unconvincing batch of proposals that were easily exposed to be either a formula for:

(a) The Lebanonization of Israeli society (by annexation of all of Judea-Samaria, together with is Arab residents remaining part of Israeli society); or

(b) The Balkanization of Judea-Samaria (by partial annexation—with the overwhelming bulk of the Arab population left encapsulated in disconnected, quasi-autonomous enclaves, whose orderly administration would be all but impossible).

Indeed, any dispassionate assessment of Israel’s minimal strategic needs will reveal that, to endure as the nation-state of the Jewish people, it must adequately address at least two imperatives—the geographic imperative and the demographic imperative.

This is almost a self-evident truism since if it does not, it will either be untenable geographically, or demographically—or both.

The former precludes any withdrawals west of the Jordan River, significant enough to facilitate a self-governing Palestinian entity; while the latter precludes the inclusion of a large, recalcitrant Arab minority within the permanent population of Israel—whether fully enfranchised or not.

For more details of the perils of full and partial annexation—see here and here respectively.

Dangerous & detrimental symmetry

Clearly then, the geographic imperative rules out the “Left”-wing prescription for a Palestinian state; while the demographic imperative rules out the alternatives usually proffered by the “Right”—for full or partial annexation of Judea-Samaria together with the Arab population resident therein.

Thus, while the “Left” is prepared to imperil Israel geographically to preserve it demographically; the Right is prepared to imperil it demographically to preserve it geographically.

It has been the Right’s inability to eliminate this perceived vulnerability to the charge of promoting a policy that exposes Israel to no less a peril than the concessionary policy of the “Left”, which has breathed life into what should have been, by any rationale criterion, the long lifeless shell of its political adversaries.

For, unless it breaks away from unlikely proposals that entail “domesticating” an addition to Israel’s permanent population of around two million hostile and recalcitrant non-Jewish inhabitants, drenched with decades of incandescent Judeocidal hatred, the Right will not be able to dispel claims of a detrimental symmetry between the dangers entailed in its policy prescriptions and those of the “Left’s”.

For that, it is not enough to point out the flaws, however fatal, of the “Left”.  It must present the public with a plausible and persuasive alternative that does not merely replace a geographic peril with a demographic one.

Until it does that, the “Left”, in defiance of all rationality and reality, will remain a viable political force, with a tangible chance of retaking the reins of power. That is the gravest indictment of the political “Right” in Israel.

Epilogue

Of course, one need not be endowed with exceptional powers of deductive analysis to reach the inescapable conclusion that the only non-kinetic policy that can effectively address Israel’s twin imperatives of geography and demography—in order for it to survive as the nation-state of the Jewish people—is that of a large-scale initiative for incentivized emigration of the non-belligerent Palestinian population to third party countries.

Happily, the necessity of such a policy seems to dawning on increasing sectors of the political “Right” in Israel—see here, here, here, and here – although, regrettably, it is doubtful whether its promotion will play a significant part in the upcoming elections.

(Just how the Right should go about advancing this crucially important policy—and the public discourse on it—in an upcoming column.)

Sadly, until September 17, there is little to do in this regard but to wait and see whether, once again, the “Right” will snatch defeat from what should be, without a shadow of doubt, the jaws of certain victory.

© All rights reserved.

INTEL REPORT: Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Egypt-Hamas, Japan-America

ISRAEL-LEBANON

Last week we reported that the Foreign Minister of Bahrain, Shaykh Khaled bin Ahmad bin Muhammad Aal Khalifa, tweeted that Israel has a right to defend itself, in response to the flap over the two Israeli drones that violated Lebanon’s airspace, one of which carried explosives and took out an Hizbollah office in south Beirut.  In this context, the Bahraini FM stressed that since Iran “has declared war against all of us,” implying that any attack against any of their IRGC entities, their Lebanese Hizbollah, their “popular mobilization” militias in Iraq, or their Houthi arm in Yemen, constitutes “self defense.”

This week, according to www.al-jazeera.net, the Bahraini FM has doubled down by directly accusing Hizbollah of escalating the situation by attacking Israel (in reference to Hizbollah’s taking out an Israeli military vehicle this weekend).  Then he took it a step further by accusing the Lebanese government itself of being complicit in the escalation.  This would stem from the fact that the “Lebanese government” (which includes Sunni and Christian members) is essentially hostage to Hizbollah).

Therefore, according to the Bahraini FM’s reasoning, the Lebanese government is responsible and “any aggression by one state against another is forbidden by International Law” and is subjecting its citizens to the subsequent danger.

The Foreign Ministry of Bahrain then issued a formal statement ordering all of its citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately.

The above statements by the Bahraini FM were also reported on the Saudi-owned www.al-arabiyya TV, a day later.

ISRAEL-EGYPT-HAMAS

Israel sharing sensitive Counter-Terrorism (CT) intelligence with its arch enemy, the terrorist entity of Hamas?  Ridiculous!  Or is it?  According to an article published by

al-Monitor, a Washington, DC-based news entity founded by a Christian Arab-American from Lebanon/Syria, that is exactly what is happening.  The author of this al-Monitor article is one Shlomi Eldar, an Israel-based journalist who for the past two decades has covered the Palestinian Authority and Gaza for Israel’s TV channels 1 and 10.

Here is how this has come about:  Israel and Egypt have been sharing intelligence information for several years.  At first this intelligence information included CT on Hamas, which both countries considered to be a terrorist group.  Egypt had declared the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist group in 2013 with former General as-Sisi assuming the presidency of Egypt’s nominally civilian government.  Since Hamas was founded as the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Hamas was automatically included in that designation.

Furthermore, Egypt has been having trouble with Hamas in terms of cross-border smuggling of weapons, drugs, and jihadis.  As a part of this Egypt-Hamas contention Egypt had closed its border with Gaza and joined with Israel in enforcing an embargo on it.  Egypt had also accused Hamas of aiding the anti-government protests and terrorist activities in Egypt’s Sinai.

So, what gives?  What led to both Egypt and Israel altering their positions on Hamas? Or vice-versa?

For one thing, according to Mr. Eldar, Hamas has been moving closer to Egypt in order the get the embargo eased.  Egypt, for its part is wanting to woo Hamas to get its aid and cooperation vis-à-vis the ongoing CT war in the Sinai, and beyond that, to entice it on board a possible future pan-Palestinian peace deal with Israel.

However, as Hamas has moved closer to Egypt, including pretending to disassociate itself from the mother ship, the MB, in order to please Egypt, a note-worthy splinter group has declared Hamas to be a “traitor” to the “Arab-Islamic-Palestinian” cause and has begun conducting car bombings and other terrorist acts against the terrorist group Hamas!

The name of this splinter group is bayt al-miqdis, which in Arabic means “The House of Holiness” and is a name for Jerusalem.  This term also refers to an Islamic prophecy contained in the ahadeeth referring to a massive Islamic army that will march out from Khorusan (an area in SW and central Asia including Afghanistan and parts of Iran, Pakistan and other Central Asian countries).  This army, it is said, will bear the “black banners” and will reconquer bayt al-miqdis for the Muslims.  Most Palestinians believe that when this Latter Day army reaches their region that they will become the vanguard, the spearhead, of this army as it destroys Israel and takes over Jerusalem.

Hamas, consequently, fears that this bayt al-miqdis organization will out recruit it and become a major threat to its hold on power in Gaza.  Thus its acceptance of CT intel from Israel, the very entity it has vowed to destroy.  But, of course, it can’t admit to itself that it is doing so.  This is where Egypt enters the equation according to Mr. Eldar.  This bayt

al-miqdis group is the primary group causing Egypt headaches in the Sinai, and so, as Hamas has recently moved closer to Egypt, it and Egypt are now sharing CT intelligence on bayt al-miqdis and “inadvertently” as Hamas accepts CT intel from Egypt among that CT intel is intel Israel has provided to Egypt.  Egypt, for its part, passes along Israeli CT only that intel agreed upon by Israel.  “The very essence of a paradox” says Mr. Eldar. “The relationship between Israel and Hamas is tangled and complex, with all sorts of remarkable twists and turns.

This paradox also underscores two age-old adages:  “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” (at least temporarily), and “politics makes for strange bedfellows.”  Frankly, Egypt, Israel, and Hamas all in bed together is about as strange as it can get.  Welcome to the modern Middle East.

JAPAN-AFRICA

Over the weekend, and immediately after the G-7 meeting in France, Japan hosted the Japan-Africa conference.  Egyptian talk-show host ‘Amru Adeeb reported on this conference for his al-hakaya (The Story) show as a vehicle for boasting about Egypt’s importance.  Mr. Adeeb first beamed with pride over President as-Sisi’s hobnobbing with the world leaders of the planet’s major powers, then flying directly to Japan to represent the entire continent of Africa as this year’s president of the Organization of African States.

According to Mr. Adeeb, Japan has pledged to invest some $20 billion U.S. in Africa, in hopes of competing with China for Africa’s allegiance.