It is no wonder why so many Americans are confused about what is happening with the war in Ukraine. The U.S. Intelligence Community (I.C.) and the Ministry of Social Media (MSM), AKA the 5th Column, are under the control of the Deep State and cannot be trusted.
But geography does not lie and demographic statistics are generally reliable. Moreover, we have the two major types of warfare: Wars of Attrition and Wars of Annihilation, as guides to our thinking.
And let’s set aside the idea that the mere questioning of the U.S. involvement in Ukraine is to be pro-Putin. No rational person could be pro-Putin.
Okay. So, what is needed to win a War of Attrition?
Historically, the winner of this type of warfare has the larger population, is not in any great hurry to win, can use geography and/or severe weather to limit the smaller opponent’s access to resupply, and can cut off or hinder the smaller nation from its usual sources of earning money and its prospects for borrowing funds.
According to the CIA World Fact Book, the population of Ukraine is 43.3 million versus a Russian population of 141.7 million. Railroad tracks between Ukraine and Poland are of different gauges, hindering resupply from the West. Russia closed the Black Sea to Ukrainian grain shipments, depriving Ukraine of its major cash crops. Insurance for Ukrainian ships is either not available or prohibitively costly.
Ergo: It appears that Putin is on a slow, but steady, course to win a War of Attrition.
Could Ukraine win a War of Annihilation? To do so, Ukraine would have to generate enough combat power on the battlefield to crush the Russian Army. And, even if Ukraine had sufficient combat power to do so—which it does not—what if the Russians refuse to engage in decisive battles?
The Russians started chipping away at the Donbas Region back in 2014. Obviously, Russia is in no great hurry. Russian troops can pull back into Mother Russia whenever they choose to do so, only mildly concerned about Ukrainian drones or missiles.
So, brush away the question of whether the U.S. has any vital interests at stake in Ukraine and one must conclude that given population and geography factors, there is no way that Ukraine can win vs. Russia.
Unless, of course, U.S./NATO troops invade Russia from Ukraine. And then, given our woke-weakened Armed Forces, we might be defeated outright or bogged down in another Afghanistan, Iraq, or Vietnam. Or worse: invite nuclear war.
There is, however, an interest that should concern all peaceful trading nations: Freedom of Navigation across the Black Sea.
So, here’s the key: Russia is dependent on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea for its imports and exports. If the navies of the Free World (Freedom Flotillas) shut down Russian use of the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, Russia’s only maritime access would be 11 time zones to the east at the Pacific port of Vladivostok. The Russian economy would grind to a halt.
Rather than be booted out of office by starving Russians, Putin would be compelled to sign a peace treaty with Ukraine. Q.E.D.
©2023. William Hamilton. All rights reserved.