Note: This analysis is using the gubernatorial vote unless otherwise stated.
One word for the 2200 General Election from a Republican perspective: Spectacular!
Three tables are included below and the more the tables are examined, the more spectacular the election becomes!
There were 17 counties where the Republican percentage of the vote exceeded 80%, with one county over 90%. The large population Florida Counties, which were considered irredeemable from a Republican perspective as recently as the last general election, led the way with huge Republican margin gains! There was not one Florida County where the Democrats gained margin when comparing the 2018 election to the 2022 election!
Another stunning election outcome is that in every Florida County, Democrats had fewer votes in 2022 than they garnered in 2018. Governor DeSantis’ 2018 margin of victory of 32,461 votes grew to 1,507,835 votes in 2022, and this margin was pretty much duplicated by all Republicans running for statewide office. The great victory was the result of a confluence of favorable factors.
Great current Republican governance
A Florida heritage that produced significant Republican dominance in the 1980s that, although diminished by questionable real estate policies of the late twentieth and early twenty first century, still allowed Republicans to be somewhat competitive in Florida in the last couple of decades Meaningful past governance, most notably the 2011 Florida legislatures’ elimination of the Department of Community Affairs Poor Democrat governance both nationally and locally Migration and immigration to Florida of voters politically aligned with Republicans
Florida Republicans may gain even more market share by adopting policies that proportionately grow Republican favoring demographics.
For Republicans to gain more election victories in more places, Republicans should not rely on continued bad Democrat governance. Republicans should become more open-minded and include non-campaign strategies in a fully integrated overall election strategy. The Republicans’ more open-minded focus should be on family formation and enhancing the ability of The People to escape renter ship.
The positive change in the Republican vote in Florida mirrored the positive changes seen in relative voter registrations. This mirroring should give credence to the use of voter registrations as a predictor of election success. Republicans made gains in the vote, as Republicans did in registrations, but the Republican vote gains, similar to registrations gains, were less than the Democrat vote losses. In the gubernatorial race, Republicans gained 537,921 votes from 2018 levels, and Democrats had 937,453 fewer votes than obtained in the 2018 election.
These numbers are worrisome as it suggests that at least 449,982 previous Democrat voters sat out the election. Having voters who feel no one represents them is a societal problem as it creates opportunity for gifted politicians, who may not have The People’s best interest at heart, to easily capture this cohort. The Republican challenge is to bring these voters into the fold.
The 2022 election results have given Florida Republicans national standing. Florida Republicans need to take advantage of this standing to inform Republicans nationwide on how to grow Republican market share.
There should be at least two areas of interest in analyzing the election. The first area is the current political situation, and the second area is how the political situation is trending. Attached to this narrative are tables that were created to help in answering these two areas of interest.
Comparing a Political Wave to an Actual Wave
With hurricane season fresh in our minds, a comparison between the anticipated wave election results and the results stemming from actual hurricane waves will be utilized.
The damage caused by water during a hurricane are many and this report will limit itself with water damage caused by surge, waves, and tides. The higher the wind speed, the higher the waves and the greater the surge. Owing to the nature of wind, where the doubling of speed causes a cubed change in the force of the wind, even small increase in top-end wind speeds can have enormous changes in the amount of damage the surge and wave action may create.
Another water related factor is the tide cycle. Surge and large waves generated during high tides are the most damaging owing to the factors are additive in determining the ultimate elevation of where water damage will occur.
Back in the 1984 presidential election, a time of peak national Republican market share, Florida Republicans captured 65.32% of the vote and New York Republicans captured 53.84% of the vote. Fast forward to the 2020 presidential election and it is found that Florida Republicans captured 51.11% of the vote and in New York Republicans captured just 37.67% of the vote. Using the vote change between the two elections as an indication of the underlying change in the political orientation of the states’ voters, Florida became roughly 14% less Republican in this time and New York became about 16% less Republican, which over this long period is relatively equal loss of Republican market share.
Let us compare the 2022 New York vote with the 2022 Florida vote. In this comparison the tide is analogous to the underlying political orientation of The People and the wind and surge are the analogous to the ability of the campaign to deliver votes. In the 2022 Florida vote, high tide, surge, and large waves led to great election outcomes. In the 2022 New York vote, low tides, surge, and large waves led to Republicans making gains, but not large enough gains to win many elections. Florida started as a much more Republican place and therefore Florida experienced a red wave in 2022. New York started as a much less Republican place, and therefore did not experience a red wave in election victories. Campaigns, analogous to surge and hurricane winds are powerful, but the underlying political orientation of the electorate, analogous to the tide, are also significant in determining election outcomes.
Democrats and their allies, along with many willing Republicans, whether purposeful or not, politically engage in favorably changing the underlying political orientation of more of The People to favor Democrats. Republicans do not purposely utilize strategies to favorably influence the underlying political orientation of The People, so it is not surprising that the Democrats dominate this powerful facet of politics.
Contact information is provided below if more information/presentations concerning positively changing the underlying political orientation of The People is desired.
©Stephen R. Meyer. All rights reserved.
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