A German newsweekly this week published what purported to be “leaked” documents from Germany’s defense ministry, spelling out a detailed scenario for how Putin could unleash World War III in continental Europe. The documents detailed a war-gaming exercise the German high command called a “worst-case scenario” for a hot-war conflict between Russia and NATO.
Stage One is a massive new Russian mobilization of 200,000 troops, which the Germans believe could begin as early as next month. This would be followed by a renewed ground and missile offensive against Ukraine.
The next phase would be for Russia to stir up dissent among ethnic Russians in the Baltic Republics – now NATO members – much as Russia did in 2008 in the Georgia and again in Ukraine in 2014. Then Russia would use the cover of its annual ZAPAD exercises with Belarus, which normally involve upwards of 50,000 Russian troops, to launch an invasion.
The Germans also sketched out a scenario where Russia would bridge the narrow “Suwalki Gap,” sandwiched between Latvia and Poland, that separates Belarus from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic. This has replaced the “Fulda Gap” scenarios of the Cold War, when NATO planners believed the Russians would launch tens of thousands of tanks into Western Germany.
It’s important to note that these are just scenarios; Bild does not claim that these war-gaming exercises are based on actual intelligence or stolen Russian war plans.
But what they do show, as I point out in this week’s Prophecy Today Weekend, is that the Germans are finally taking their defense seriously. Worrying about a Russian invasion, or about an ethnic conflict escalating into regional war, is a healthy thing. Better to prepare for the worst than be taken completely by surprise.`
Meanwhile, the Middle East has dramatically changed trajectory since Joe Biden took office.
Instead of a growing movement toward region-wide peace-treaties and economic cooperation, brought about by the Abraham Accords negotiated by the Trump administration, we now have active wars not just in Israel, but with Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The Iranians even struck targets inside Pakistan this week – although that appeared to be by joint agreement with the Pakistan government to eliminate each other’s enemies.
I argue that most of these conflicts have erupted as a direct result of dazed and confused U.S. leadership, which began in the early days of the Biden White House with the alienation of Saudi Arabia and a cut-off in U.S. military supplies to the Kingdom.
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