February 2023 Florida County Republican Registrations Report

Florida Republicans continue the trend of making gains as Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations increased by 30,828 registrations in January and by 126,395 registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 432,345 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats. Republican registrations were 36.63% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 2.99% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats (click here to view tables).

The Democrats continue the Biden era phenomena of losing significant numbers of registrations as Democrats lost 35,594 Registrations in February and over 95,000 registrations since the 2022 book closing. The registrations of Republicans fell slightly (4,766 registrations), and the number of registrations which are neither Republican nor Democrat decreased slightly (1,114 registrations), in February (see attached charts).

The Republican share of the total presidential popular vote has been in a very noticeable long-term decline.

Republicans need to change strategy.

• The Republican Party peak in popularity took place nearly 40 years ago as Ronald Reagan carried the popular vote by a roughly 16-million vote margin over his Democrat opponent in the 1984 Presidential Election.
• In 2020, the Republican popular presidential vote loss was by roughly 7 million votes.
• The popular Republican presidential vote margin loss between 1984 and 2020 was roughly 23 million votes, an average loss of roughly 2.5 million votes every presidential election cycle.
• These negative Republican vote trends are continuing, and the 2024 Republican presidential candidate will need to overcome a popular vote deficit approaching 10 million votes to win the 2024 election.

The difficulty of this task cannot be overstated!

How have Democrat presidential candidates made such large gains in their share of the presidential vote? The Democrats, and their allies, implemented policies favorable to creating and retaining Democrat voters.

The Democrat strategy is to capture the vote of the young, and then to keep the young voters from becoming Republican as they age. The Republican voters lost to the aging process are then replaced by Democrat voters, causing a comparative loss in the Republican share of the vote. Based on an average voter being able to vote in 16 presidential elections in their lifetime, Democrats will gain a roughly 2% of the total vote advantage every election cycle by using this strategy! Two percent of the popular vote equates to a little over three million votes, which is roughly the loss of margin between presidential elections that has taken place over the last 40 years!

How do Democrats keep their voters from becoming Republican voters? Democrats accomplish this by advancing policies which keeps their voters relatively poor, single, and in home rentership. The vote gains made by Democrats advancing policies which keep Democrat voters relatively poor, single, and in rentership, are additive, continuous, and relentless!

It seems Republicans find it difficult to believe these Democrat strategies work, and therefore even the recognition of the strategy even existing is rejected out-of-hand by Republicans. Relatively poor, single, and those who rent their housing is the description of most voters living in our major cities, which have become Democrat strongholds. If Republicans are to regain their lost share of the vote, they need to recognize the source of the loss!

Republican strategies should focus on positively changing the underlying political orientation of an election district by facilitating voters to become wealthier, married, and propertied!

Family Formation, with an Emphasis on Early Family Formation

• Married people tend to vote more Republican than singles.
• The trends to never marry and marrying later in life, both diminish the Republican vote.

Lower Rates of Home Rentership

People who rent their housing vote overwhelmingly Democrat

• Renting is roughly four times more predictive of a person voting Democrat than owning is predictive of a person voting Republican.

Robust Job and Real Estate Markets

• Families need to have the means to purchase fairly priced homes created in competitive real estate markets.

To make these changes takes time. To talk about making these changes may start immediately. A universal Republican message informing the Democrat rank-and-file that they are being abused by their Democrat Party, and that Republicans wish for them to have the ability to escape being forced into a lifelong lifestyle of being relatively poor, single, and renters of their housing!

©Steve Meyer. All rights reserved.

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