Florida County Republican Registrations Report and Elections Analysis — April 2023

Let’s Pretend

There is one politically critical question that Republicans, including candidates, should be asking: How is the Republican’s nominee going to carry Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, the three least Republican of the group of the most Republican states that the Republican presidential candidate needs to win to capture the 2024 Electoral College vote?

The simple answer to a seemingly complicated question may be available from a Vero Beach, Florida street named Woodland Circle.

The publicly available information tells us the following about voter registrations:

• At the end of April 2023, the percentage makeup of IRC voters, derived from the voter registrations numbers listed at the Indian River County (IRC) Supervisor of Elections website, were 48.7% Republican, 24.9% Democrat, and 26.4% registrants who were neither Democrat nor Republican.
• At the end of April 2023, the percentages derived by the voter registrations listed for Woodland Circle at the website VoterRecords.com, were 14.9% Republican, 48.6% Democrat, and 36.5% registrants who were neither Democrat nor Republican.

Woodland Circle voters would have to become 33.8% more Republican, 23.7% less Democrat and 10.1% less neither Republican nor Democrat to match the IRC average.

Republicans, regarding streets such as Woodland Circle, play the childhood game of “let’s pretend”. Republicans pretend streets like Woodland Circle don’t exist. This allows us to go forth with our traditional campaign efforts to satisfy ourselves, that even though we may lose the election, we will have done everything in our power to win!

Democrats, and their allies, don’t play “let’s pretend”. Democrats create streets like Woodland Circle, and they do so without Republican opposition. Republicans have reached a tipping point. If we Republicans keep playing the political version of “let’s pretend”, we lose.

Woodland Circle is a street created when an apartment complex was created. Property ownership is a common good. Singapore has an enviable world-class rentership rate of 10%. The great State of Florida is at a 33.5% rentership rate. This 33.5% needs to be lowered!

The Best Use of Resources?

The Republican Party actions are dictated by candidates and therefore their actions are focused on campaigns. This is worth keeping in mind in primary season. The money donated to candidates who will be participating in a primary does not go to growing the Republican base. Republicans may have been able to ignore growing their base in the past, but judging from recent election outcomes and election trends, Republicans certainly cannot afford it today! Consider donating to efforts which grow the Republican base.

Better Local Metrics

To make these reports more relevant, a more detailed, county specific, template has been created. An example of tables and chart specifically created for Indian River County is attached for evaluation. These county specific reports are not difficult to create. Contact information is provided for those wishing for the creation of county specific tables and charts for their REC members. Any suggestions for improvements are also welcome.

Registrations

Congratulations to Liberty County for their joining the now 54 Florida Counties where Republican registrations exceed the number of Democrat registrations!

Florida Republicans continue the trend of making gains as Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations increased by 17,782 registrations in April and by 163,196 registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 469,146 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats.  Republican registrations were 36.71% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 3.24% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats (see attached tables).

The Democrats continue the Biden era phenomena of losing registrations as Democrats lost 14,784 additional Registrations in April and 124,134 registrations since the 2022 book closing. The registrations of Republicans increased by 2,998 registrations in April, and the number of registrations which are neither Republican nor Democrat decreased by 5,327 registrations in April (view April 2023 chart).

©Stephen R. Meyer, Vero Beach, Florida, May, 2023 – Issued 05/07/23. All rights reserved.

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