Florida County Republican Registrations Report—September 2023

Note: the registrations numbers in this writing refer to active registrations, a subset of total registrations.

Florida Republicans continue the trend of making relative gains in voter registrations as Republican registrations relative to Democrat registrations increased by 25,445 registrations in August and by 300,518 registrations since the book closing for the 2022 general election. Florida Republicans now have a 606,468 relative registrations advantage over the Democrats. Republican registrations were 37.51% of total registrations and Republicans now enjoy a 4.46% of total registrations advantage over the Democrats (see attached tables).

The Democrats lost 62,986 additional registrations in June, 369,353 registrations since the 2022 book closing, and 701,278 registrations since the 2020 election. The Republican registrations decreased by 37,541 in June, and the number of registrations which are neither Republican nor Democrat decreased by 69,783 registrations in August (see chart).

Every Florida County has had a gain in the Republican percentage of total registrations since the 2022 election (see Table 3)!

Note: There have been some relatively large shrinkages in the number of registrations in Florida Counties. The law was changed to make it easier to shift voters into the inactive voter category, a category where the process of removing voters from the voter rolls is initiated. The decreases in the number of registrations should end when the supervisors of elections complete the job of making the transfers in accordance with the new measures.

The Republican Main Thing

“The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.” — Stephen R. Covey

Keeping the main thing the main thing is great advice. Republicans and Democrats have a differing “main thing” in the pursuit of getting people elected. Which party has the better “main thing”?

Democrats’ “main thing” is to improve their underlying political support by growing the relative numbers in the demographics which tend to vote Democrat. Secondary to this are the Democrat candidates and their associated campaigns. Republicans have chosen candidates, and their associated campaigns, as their “main thing”. Republicans lack any secondary efforts to grow the relative numbers in the demographics which tend to vote Republican.

The Democrats keep their focus on growing the relative numbers in the demographics that tend to vote Democrat and therefore have less concern about having poor candidates. The 2020 Presidential Election is a good example of this strategy. Their poor candidate won the election. They had a similar situation in a 2022 national senate race in Pennsylvania.

This inability of Republicans to win with their “main thing” has been demonstrated in recent losses in Georgia, a state previously carried by the Republican presidential candidate by 5.09% in 2016, 7.80% in 2012, and 5.2% in 2008. Republicans lost Georgia in the 2020 Presidential election by .23%, and two senate elections in a January 5th, 2021, runoff by margins of 1.22% and 2.08%. Republicans had nearly two years to come up with a formula to win back one of the lost Georgia senate seats in the 2022 general election. The Republicans, demonstrating their lack of strategy to grow their base, could not pull it off, losing the senate seat by 2.80%, a larger loss than the losses of early 2021!

A lack of strategy to grow the Republican base causes the Republican 2024 presidential primary effort to being akin to Nero fiddling while Rome burned. Resources which should be used by Republicans to implement strategies to grow the relative numbers in the demographics that tend to vote Republican are instead being used in self-seeking endeavors to become the next Republican presidential nominee. A Republican presidential nominee leading an effort to grow the Republican base by growing those demographics that tend to vote Republican is nowhere to be found!

The reason most Republicans vote Republican is that the Republican Pary is viewed as the party most supportive of The Constitution. The Constitution cannot stand without widespread political support. Republicans have not won the popular presidential vote since 2004, signaling decreasing political support for The Constitution. Republican factions, stuck in the Republican “main thing” paradigm of candidates and their campaigns, are failing to address this challenge to The Constitution.

The true reason for this loss of support for The Constitution is the Democrats having a better “main thing” strategy. The main thing for Republicans is to replace their “main thing” of having a laser focus on candidates, and their respective campaigns, with policy efforts which grow the relative numbers in demographics that tend to vote Republican!

A Much-Needed Republican Effort to Gain the Vote of the Alienated

A politically significant Democrat demographic is those voters who rent their housing. In times of rising home prices, rising interest rates and increasing rents, such as those being experienced since President Biden took office, it is easy to understand why those voters who rent their housing become alienated voters. Higher rents result in renters having less wealth. Homeowners who are shielded from higher interest rates owing to their possession of low-rate fixed interest rate mortgages obtained when interest rates were lower, see their wealth increase as the value of their homes increases and their mortgage payments stay the same.

The inability of renters to purchase housing are generally the result of policies championed by most Democrats, and too often by Republicans, yet it is the Democrats who gain politically by these policies as the Democrats are generally the recipients of the vote of the alienated! The demographic of those who rent their housing is an ever-growing demographic and the primary source of the political gains made by the Democrats over the past few decades! An indication of lost Republican market share is that Reagan lost one state in 1984, George H.W. Bush lost ten states in 1988, George W. Bush lost 20 states in 2000. And President Trump lost 25 states in 2020.

For Republicans to capture the vote of the alienated renter requires Republicans to champion polies that remove impediments to renters becoming homeowners. It should be pointed out to renters that Democrats politically prosper by making it difficult for renters of average means to purchase their first home!

Republican politicians also need to point out these housing related realities to Republican voters to build political support for lower rates of rentership. Republicans should not be seduced by the unearned wealth that homeowners gain by governmental policies that inhibit the real estate market from producing entry level owner-occupied housing.

©2023. Steve Meyer. All rights reserved.

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