Tag Archive for: Libertarian Party

‘Playing Spoiler’: Multiple Third-Party Candidates Could Spell Bad News For Biden In 2024

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  • Multiple third-party candidates could sway the 2024 presidential election in key battleground states if there’s a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, political observers and polling analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
  • Green Party candidate Cornel West, a Libertarian Party candidate, a No Labels candidate and likely Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could all be on the ballot in 2024, which could siphon off more support from Biden than Trump, polling analysts and political strategists told the DCNF.
  • “I can imagine a world in which we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, all in they’ll get 1%, 2%, they might get 5% or 6% — and that, without a doubt, is going to be the most important element of this election,” Mike McKenna, GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, told the DCNF.

With another close presidential election expected in 2024, third parties are likely to impact the general election in key battleground states if there’s a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, polling analysts and political observers told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Multiple third-party candidates could be on the ballot in 2024, including a Green Party candidate, a No Labels candidate, a Libertarian Party candidate and likely Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent. Several polling analysts and political strategists believe that the additional third-party candidates will likely siphon off more support from Biden, which could allow Trump to return to the White House in 2024, they told the DCNF.

“If there is a rematch between Biden and Trump, there are going to be a significant number of voters who hold negative views of both candidates, given that both have favorability numbers only around 40% and unfavourability over 50%. Those are conditions ripe for heightened third-party voting,” Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the DCNF. “I wouldn’t expect the third-party vote to be all that large, but the margins in key states are likely to be so small that the third-party candidates could end up playing spoiler.”

Cornel West is running for the Green Party nomination, many are running for the Libertarian Party nomination and centrist organization No Labels is considering running a third-party ticket in 2024, with West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin often mentioned as a potential contender. Kennedy, who is currently seeking the Democratic Party nomination, is expected to switch his party affiliation to run as an independent in Philadelphia on Oct. 9.

Many attribute Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016 to Green Party candidate Jill Stein, arguing if Stein’s votes went to Clinton, Trump wouldn’t have won. Some have signaled a similar phenomenon is likely to play out in 2024, but at a larger scale with the potential for more third-party candidates on the ballot, they told the DCNF.

“Jill Stein did win enough votes to tip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to President Trump…third parties have a long history of spoiling,” Bruce Mehlman, political analyst and founder of Mehlman Consulting, told the DCNF. “The calculus by most observers appears to be that while Joe Biden has a slightly higher ceiling than Donald Trump, he also has a lower floor than Donald Trump. And the fear among Democrats is that a third party will take more voters from Biden than they will take from Trump.”

Mike McKenna, GOP consultant and president of MWR Strategies, echoed Mehlman’s sentiment, and told the DCNF the “fundamental reason” Clinton lost was due to Stein’s candidacy.

“The election in 2024 looks remarkably similar, with one important exception, and that is 70% of the voters don’t want either of these guys to run,” said McKenna. “I can imagine a world in which we have two, three, four legitimate third parties, and unlike usual, all in they’ll get 1%, 2%, they might get 5% or 6% — and that, without a doubt, is going to be the most important element of this election.”

McKenna added that because Biden’s support is “much softer” than Trump’s, these third-party candidates will likely take more of the president’s votes away, which is key in battleground states that could come down to a few thousand votes.

An Emerson College survey released in early August indicated that Trump and Biden were tied for a head-to-head matchup in the battleground state of Michigan. With West in the mix, Trump would beat Biden by 2 points, followed by the Green Party candidate at 4%, according to the poll.

Since the election will likely be “incredibly close,” a third-party candidate could win enough votes in a swing state to sway the election, said Mehlman. If 2024 isn’t a rematch between Trump and Biden, McKenna and Melhman don’t think third parties will have as much of an effect, as there will be “less of a desire for change” among voters, said Melhman.

A majority of voters in eight battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — don’t want either Trump or Biden to run for another term, according to a No Labels/HarrisX survey. The poll suggested that 63% of voters would “consider voting for a moderate or independent candidate” if there’s a rematch between Trump and Biden.

The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for a 2024 national Republican and Democratic primary, based on the most recent polling, indicates Trump and Biden are leading their respective fields by 42 points and 50 points, respectively. Trump is currently winning against Biden by 1.3 points in a general election matchup, according to the RCP average.

The Green Party has ballot access in 17 states and Washington, D.C., according to its website. No Labels has secured ballot access in ten states — Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon, Utah, South Dakota, Nevada and Florida — and is planning to get to 28 states by the end of the year.

John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates, a polling firm that works closely with the Trump campaign, told the DCNF that Democrats are concerned that voting for a third-party candidate is “a vote for Trump.”

“They know Trump’s base is like very, very solid — much more so than Biden’s. And most of the votes that go for these independents are pulled from Joe Biden, not from Donald Trump, and Trump’s already ahead,” said McLaughlin, referring to a survey he shared with the DCNF that has Trump leading Biden by 4 points.

In a three-way general election matchup between Trump, Biden and West, the former president secured 43% of the vote, followed by Biden at 38% and West at 6%, according to the poll conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 26. In a four-way race with Manchin as the No Labels’ candidate, Trump led with 40%, and Biden garnered 36%, Manchin received 6% and West had 4%.

“Polling generally suggests that Biden is a little bit more hurt than third parties than Trump, but that’s not automatically how it would have to end up,” said Kondik.

Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, isn’t convinced third parties will advantage one party over the other in 2024, he told the DCNF.

“I could see, depending on who No Labels nominates, that being sort of a safety valve for some, probably not Republicans, but at least sort of conservative-leaning independents, who just can’t pull the trigger for Biden again, but they’re also like, ‘you know what, I sort of think Trump committed treason, and, you know, maybe by that point he’s found guilty on a felony charge or five,’” said McHenry. “So I think it could affect, assuming Trump is the nominee, Trump as much as it affects Biden.”

Trump, Biden, West, Kennedy, Manchin, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party and No Labels did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.

AUTHOR

MARY LOU MASTERS

Contributor.

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Libertarian Dennis Hof Running For Harry Reid’s Open U.S. Senate Seat

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CARSON CITY, Nev. /PRNewswire/ — Dennis Hof–legal brothel mogul, HBO-TV star, best-selling author, successful business entrepreneur and Nevadan, has announced he has joined the Libertarian Party and has organized an exploratory committee to run for U.S. Senate.

Dennis Hof (Hof) announced today he has washed his hands of the two major political parties, switching his affiliation to Libertarian (www.LPNevada.org) and forming an official Exploratory Committee to consider a run for Harry Reid’s U.S. senate seat in 2016. Hof’s move to run for the long Democrat-held position comes on the heels of state lawmakers passing the largest tax increase in Nevada history, pushing business-owner Hof to finally say he’s “Fed up and not going to take it anymore!”

“I’ve voted for Democrats and Republicans all my life, and all it’s gotten me, and all Nevadans, is more taxes and regulations and less freedoms, I’m disgusted with them both. As of today I have changed my party affiliation to the Libertarian Party and I am supporting the Libertarian Party of Nevada and encourage other people to do the same,” said Hof, the owner of the world famous Moonlite Bunny Ranch (www.BunnyRanch.com) and six other licensed Nevada brothels. “And if I really want to change things in this state, and this country, I have to have some skin in the game—and running for U.S. Senator may just be the best way to do it.”

The Hof For Senate 2016 Exploratory Committee is being headed up by Libertarian Party of Nevada ChairmanBrett H. Pojunis (Pojunis), who along with other Libertarian Party officials met with Hof at the party’s recent Libertarian Political Expo (www.LPEX.org) held in Las Vegas. Pojunis and Hof came away from the confab deciding to join forces to take on both the state and federal political establishments.

“Dennis Hof epitomizes what being a libertarian is all-about. He’s been living as a libertarian all his life—and the Libertarian Party of Nevada is proud to now welcome him into our party as an ‘official’ Libertarian,” said Pojunis. “Exploring the possibility of having Dennis as the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate from Nevada is both exciting and unprecedented. If Dennis decides to run, the entire nation will be watching our senate race, and they will all see the clear differences between the Libertarian Party, and the Democrat and Republican duopoly.”

The Hof For Senate 2016 Exploratory Committee will consist of a wide range of high-profile representatives from the worlds of entertainment, politics and media—with those already mentioned as possibilities including such luminaries as Tucker Carlson, Vince Neil, John Stossel, Rita Cosby, Ron Jeremy, Howard Stern, Judith Regan, Larry Flynt and Johnny Buss. Hof said that his group of advisors would be strictly “blue ribbon,” and he would be giving their analysis “serious consideration” in determining whether he should throw his hat into the 2016 Senate race ring.

Dennis Hof is available for interviews by contacting pr@bunnyranch.com or 775-720-9090

About The Libertarian Party of Nevada:

The Libertarian Party is third-largest and the fastest growing political party in the America. To learn more about the LPNevada, visit www.LPNevada.org. Please follow LPNevada www.twitter.com/lpnevada and Like our Facebook page www.facebook.com/lpnevada.

Is a Libertarian Party in Florida’s future?

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Click on the image to read the full report.

Debra Caso, a Florida resident and member of Freedom Advocates, in an email writes, “It is time to look at our political choices a little more closely. Principle over Party and issues we can agree on across the board. Are you better off today than you were 16 years ago? If you work for the government you probably are richer but your rights have been radically attacked by the R and D party. Candidates start at the local level and they go right up to Congress!  Congress has failed America. RD Party is 2 sides of the same coin, we need a second party.”

Caso is energized because of the 2013 American Values Survey: In Search of Libertarians in America published by the Public Religion Research Institute on October 30th.

So is Alex Snitker from the 1787 Radio Network. In his column “There Are 2,595,586 libertarians In Florida” Snitker writes, “In Florida, there is only one way for a political party to reach major party status. That is [by] having 5% of registered voters be registered in your party. In the 2013 American Values Survey, “In the Search of Libertarians” a clear path was laid on how the Libertarian Party of Florida can achieve major party status in our state. There are 11,798,121 registered voters in Florida. If this poll is correct this means that there are 2,595,586 libertarian or libertarian leaning voters in Florida. For the Libertarian Party of Florida to reach major party status we need 589,907 to be registered Libertarians.”

For a larger view click on the image.

The 2013 American Values Survey presents an interesting picture of the political landscape in the United States.

The Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) states, “According to a newly developed Libertarian Orientation Scale, less than 1-in-10 (7%) Americans are consistent libertarians, and an additional 15% lean libertarian. At the other end of the spectrum, an equal number of Americans are consistent communalists (7%), and an additional 17% lean communalist. A majority (54%) of Americans have a mixed ideological profile, falling in between libertarian and communalist orientations.”

“Compared to the general population, libertarians are significantly more likely to be non-Hispanic white, male, and young. Nearly all libertarians are non-Hispanic whites (94%), more than two-thirds (68%) are men, and more than 6-in-10 (62%) are under the age of 50,” reports PRRI.

PRRI found, “Generally speaking, libertarians are more opposed than white evangelical Protestants, those affiliated with the Tea Party, and Republicans overall to government involvement across a range of economic policies, such as raising the minimum wage, Obamacare, and increasing environmental protections.”

For a larger view click on the image.

The PRRI survey found that “Unlike economic questions, on which libertarians are generally aligned with other conservative constituencies, libertarians have a more distinct profile on social issues.”

  • Nearly 6-in-10 (57%) libertarians oppose making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, a proportion identical to the general population. By contrast, strong majorities of Republicans overall (58%), Americans affiliated with the Tea Party (58%), and white evangelical Protestants (68%) favor making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion.
  • Seven-in-ten (70%) libertarians favor allowing doctors to prescribe lethal drugs to help terminally ill patients end their lives. Americans who identify with the Tea Party are closely divided on this question (49% favor, 51% oppose). By contrast, strong majorities of Republicans (58%) and white evangelical Protestants (70%) oppose this policy.
  • More than 7-in-10 (71%) libertarians favor legalizing marijuana. By contrast, approximately 6-in-10 Republicans (61%) and Tea Party members (59%), and nearly 7-in-10 (69%) white evangelical Protestants, oppose legalizing marijuana.
  • Unlike most other social issues, libertarians remain socially conservative on same-sex marriage. While a majority (59%) of libertarians oppose same-sex marriage, they are significantly less opposed than Republicans overall (67%) and than other conservative-leaning groups such as Tea Party members (73%) and white evangelical Protestants (80%).

A majority (53%) of libertarian voters say they always vote in primary elections, a rate comparable to white evangelical Protestant voters (48%) and Republican voters overall (50%) but significantly lower than the participation rate among Tea Party voters (62%).

As the 2014 election cycle begins calls for a third party tend to grow. Will there be a Libertarian Party in Florida? Time will tell.