Tag Archive for: New Hampshire

Polls: What They’ve Gotten Right So Far, And What They’re Saying About ’24

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For almost a decade now, Republicans have taken pollsters’ incompetence for granted. They gave Hillary Clinton an almost certain chance of victory in 2016, so they can never be trusted to accurately gauge Donald Trump — or so the theory goes. However, the polls have been fairly accurate in this election cycle — at least in the beginning.

Trump is a uniquely difficult figure to poll. For a long time, the hostile environment Democrats, the corporate media, and leading cultural figures built around him made expressing pro-Trump sentiments a risky business. Supporting Trump could put friendships in jeopardy, rupture families, or even have dire professional consequences. People knew they weren’t supposed to like him, and if they did, it represented some sort of character flaw. Even to strangers polling them over the phone, people cautiously guard their virtue. It doesn’t help that polls are sometimes strategically weighted toward Democrats, to shape opinion rather than reflect it.

Yet as Trump chugs along with the momentum of a steamroller, this toxic atmosphere has begun to collapse. It’s no longer a social death sentence to say you support Trump — even high-profile celebrities are doing it. Some, from irreverent rapper Azealia Banks to Kelsey Grammer to sports legend Caitlyn Jenner have openly endorsed him, while other notable figures like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan have certainly warmed up to some of his ideas. Partly, it’s herd mentality: middle-of-the-road voters now feel more comfortable expressing their support as social interdictions soften. However, it’s also a conscious shift. People have woken up to the media narratives, realizing that President Joe Biden is the true radical on issues from immigration to the economy, while Trump represents a moderate return to normal.

This helps explain why the polling on Trump has been pretty much spot on so far this election season.

On the day of the caucus in Iowa, the 538 polling average projected Trump would take 52.7% of the vote, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would hold 18.7%. Trump wound up coming in just barely under, at 51%, while Haley over-performed by less than half a point at 19.1%. The key takeaways of the projection held: Trump enjoyed support from a narrow majority, while Haley’s base was a solid, but ultimately insignificant, quarter of the Republican electorate. 

The polls were right again in New Hampshire. On the day of the primary, Trump stood at 53.9% percent in the 538 average,  while Haley stood at 36.3%. Trump slightly overperformed by less than half a point, walking away with 54.3% of the vote. Haley, meanwhile, did substantially better than the polls suggested at 43%, but that is likely because Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out right before the election. Some of his voters moved over to Haley’s camp too quickly for the polls to capture. On Trump, the pollsters were spot on.

In South Carolina, Trump again came in just slightly over a point of the polls — 59.8% projected compared to 61.6%. Haley overperformed by about 5 points, coming in at 39% after a 34% projection. Again, this is likely due to Democrats turning out for Haley to spite Trump, although they would certainly not vote for her in a general election.

It’s only in Michigan that Trump’s polling began to deviate. Haley did about 5 points better than expected, while Trump did about 10 points worse, with uncommitteds making up most of the balance.

From there, things got dicier on Super Tuesday. Polls suggested Trump was likely to win by almost 50 points in Virginia, but he only walked away with about a 28-point victory. Despite a small sample, polls did not predict Haley’s victory in Vermont; in fact, they suggested a roughly 30-point victory for Trump. Haley surged in Massachusetts (an open primary), reducing Trump’s margin of victory to roughly 15 points narrower than projected.

Partly, this is due to averages being skewed from earlier polling before Haley surged in the match-up against Trump. But it shows that polls can’t totally be counted on to accurately reflect the anti-Trump or Trump-ambivalent primary voters. So we get a pretty good idea of the proportions of Trump’s core base, and how they are going to turn out. Moderates and Independents, the types who are lukewarm on Trump and gravitate towards someone a little more centrist like Haley, may turn out to be a wild card that cut into Trump’s support. With Haley’s reported withdrawal from the race following Super Tuesday, the question now becomes: will they gravitate back to Trump, stay home, or vote for Biden?

Trump has been up in nearly every poll since the beginning of 2024. The RealClear polling average currently has him leading Biden by 2.1 points, 47.5% to 45.4%. If within the margin of error from the first three primary polls on Trump, he would still walk away with the win. Without Haley and her last-minute momentum skewing the polls, things may settle back into equilibrium. As the “herd” continues to move toward Trump as an inevitability, it becomes increasingly safe to support him. This makes people both more likely to support him, as well as more likely to admit it to pollsters. As a result, Trump’s lead should widen further and the polls should reflect it even more accurately.

This dynamic works in favor of Haley voters coming back to Trump. They are looking for the perception of moderation, stability and normalcy — and Haley herself will play a large part in convincing her voters whether Trump is the right candidate for the job.

AUTHOR

GAGE KLIPPER

Commentary and analysis writer.

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President Donald J. Trump Wins New Hampshire. The Only Person to Win a Historic 3rd Time!

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Wait, here’s the real headline – 70% of Nikki Haley voters in New Hampshire were not registered Republicans.

Trump Cruises To Victory Against Nikki Haley In New Hampshire

By: Mary Lou Masters, Daily Caller, January 23, 2024:

CONCORD, New Hampshire — Former President Donald Trump won the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday evening, defeating former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by roughly nine points, according to The Associated Press.

Trump received 54.1% support from New Hampshire voters compared to Haley’s 45% at the time of writing, the AP projected. The former president has now won the first two nominating contests of the 2024 season, as he secured 51% of the vote in the Iowa caucus just last week.

President Joe Biden, who did not appear on the ballot due to the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC’s) new calendar, won the New Hampshire Democratic primary as a write-in candidate, according to the AP. Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips followed at 20.4% ahead of self-help author Marianne Williamson at 4.6%.

None of the Democrats will receive delegates from New Hampshire, as the state decided to keep its first-in-the-nation status.

Keep reading.

AUTHOR

Pamela Geller

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Trump Voters In New Hampshire Say They’re With Him Until The End, Indictments Be Damned

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  • New Hampshire voters supporting former President Donald Trump told the Daily Caller News Foundation that they will support his bid for a second term regardless of the outcome of the four criminal indictments against him.
  • The Trump supporters slammed the charges against the former president at a campaign event in Rochester, New Hampshire, and told the DCNF even a potential conviction wouldn’t sway their vote.
  • “He could do anything — I’m voting for him,” Bill, a New Hampshire voter, told the DCNF.

ROCHESTER, New Hampshire — Multiple New Hampshire supporters of former President Donald Trump told the Daily Caller News Foundation at his campaign event on Sunday that they will support his White House bid despite the charges against him.

The former president is facing four criminal indictments as he runs for a second term, some of which he’ll have to go to trial for ahead of a potential rematch with President Joe Biden in November. Voters bashed the indictments during a Trump campaign event in Rochester, New Hampshire, two days before they take to the polls in the first-in-the-nation primary and told the DCNF that they would back the former president regardless of a potential conviction.

One Trump-supporting woman told the DCNF that she would “absolutely” support the former president if he were convicted before the general election.

“I believe all the charges are false,” she said.

Bill and Josh, two event attendees who are also backing Trump for president, said they’ll support the former president no matter what.

“He could do anything — I’m voting for him,” Bill told the DCNF, adding that the charges were “fake indictments.”

“100%, all the way,” Josh said.

One Trump-supporting couple also said such a conviction wouldn’t change their minds.

“Doesn’t matter, regardless,” the man told the DCNF. “It seems like there’s two rules of law when it comes to him versus what you see going on in the Biden camp.”

Phillip and Derrick, two brothers who are supporting the former president, also said nothing would sway their vote.

“Those [indictments] are jokes, no one gives a shit about ’em,” Phillip told the DCNF.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg handed down the first indictment in late March 2023, alleging that the former president falsified business records when reimbursing an alleged hush-money payment to porn star actress Stormy Daniels.

Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted Trump in early June for allegedly mishandling classified documents. Two months later, Smith issued another indictment against the former president, this time for alleged interference in the 2020 election and alleged involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Most recently, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis indicted Trump over alleged interference in Georgia’s 2020 election. Willis has since been hit with corruption allegations over the potential misuse of public funds when she hired her alleged lover as a special prosecutor on the Trump case.

Denise, a New Hampshire voter who attended the Trump event but said she’s still undecided on who to support in the primary, told the DCNF she’d likely vote for Trump over Biden, even if he’s convicted.

“I mean, you know what they say about the lesser of two evils?” Denise said. “I don’t know that the whole court cases isn’t in some part a witch hunt. I mean, not to say that I think Trump’s an amazing human being, but I think that he’s vilified a lot.”

The federal election interference trial is set for March 4, and Bragg’s case against Trump is scheduled for a March 25 trial. Smith’s classified documents case is scheduled to go to trial on May 20, and Willis has been pushing for an Aug. 5 date for the Georgia case.

Support for the former president in the Republican primary has only increased since the first indictment was issued last year, according to the RealClearPolitics average. The race has narrowed down to just Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who he is leading by 15 points in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

The former president overwhelmingly won the Iowa caucus on Monday with 51% support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 21.2%, Haley at 19.1% and conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.7%. DeSantis and Ramaswamy have since dropped out, and they both threw their support behind Trump.

Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

AUTHOR

MARY LOU MASTERS

Contributor.

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EDITORS NOTE: This Daily Caller column is republished with permission. ©All rights reserved.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Tim Scott To Endorse Trump Days Ahead Of New Hampshire Primary

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South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is set to endorse former President Donald Trump on Friday evening during a campaign event in Concord, New Hampshire, a source familiar confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Scott had been running for the GOP nomination until mid-November, conceding that voters were relaying to him “not now, Tim.” The endorsement is significant as Scott was appointed to his position in the upper chamber in 2012 by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is currently polling second place for the first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday.

With Scott’s backing, Trump will have secured the endorsements from several former 2024 GOP hopefuls, including conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, radio personality Larry Elder and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson.

The New York Times first reported the expected endorsement.

Trump is currently leading Haley 46.8% to 33.3% in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for the state, followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, DeSantis at 6% and Ramaswamy at 6%. Christie and Ramaswamy have both withdrawn from the race.

The expected endorsement also comes a month out from Scott’s home state primary on Feb. 24, where Trump currently holds a massive 30-point lead over Haley in the RCP average, followed by DeSantis with 11% support.

Scott launched his presidential bid in late May and focused his campaign largely on restoring traditional American values, tackling the border crisis, combatting China, promoting parental rights in education and reducing crime and inflation.

The senator said he wasn’t planning on weighing in on the primary when he announced his decision to leave the race during an interview with Fox News’ Trey Gowdy, and skirted the question on his desire to be a potential running mate.

AUTHOR

MARY LOU MASTERS

Contributor.

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EDITORS NOTE: This Daily Caller column is republished with permission. ©All rights reserved.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

‘Falling On Deaf Ears’: CNN Political Director Throws Cold Water On GOP Candidates Who Say Trump Can’t Win

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CNN’s Political Director David Chalian on Thursday threw cold water on Republican presidential hopefuls who say former President Donald Trump can’t win.

Chalian broke down a new CNN poll that found Trump leading his opponents among New Hampshire voters in a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire and CNN. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley trails Trump by 22%, garnering 20% of the vote. Both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy are in the single digits.

Chalian then explained that 52% of those polled said they have definitely made up their minds on who to vote for while 35% are leaning toward a candidate and just 12% remain undecided.

“But if you add in Trump supporters here, just take a look. Those who say Donald Trump is their choice in this primary, 83%, Dana, say they are solidly locked in. That is the stickiness of his support. Eleven percent of Trump supporters are leaning to someone, they consider themselves sort of leaners, five percent still deciding. And as you know, one of the main arguments that we’re hearing from candidates not named Trump is that he can’t win and that argument is falling on deaf ears with this New Hampshire Republican primary electorate,” Chalian said.

“Look at this movement. Donald Trump back in September, 51% of likely Republican primary voters said he had the best chance of winning a general election. That’s now up to 57%. So he’s up six points on electability,” he continued. “It’s not an argument that people are hearing that Donald Trump can’t win the general election.”

Haley has seen her support increase, jumping 14 points to second place in New Hampshire, according to an Emerson College poll. Trump received 49%, according to the poll. A new Quinnipiac poll also shows the former president leading President Joe Biden by two points, the first ever for that poll.

AUTHOR

BRIANNA LYMAN

News and commentary writer. Follow Brianna on Twitter.

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Trump Makes First New Hampshire Stop For 2024 Campaign, Announces Leadership Team

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The 45th President of the United States DONALD J. TRUMP Speaks in New Hampshire – 4/27/2023. President Trump’s speech begins at the 3:54 minute mark.

TRUMP FORCE ONE —Former President Donald Trump boarded his plane in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Thursday to head to New Hampshire, where he will be announcing his leadership team for the state for the 2024 election.

The Daily Caller flew with Trump to Manchester, New Hampshire, on his first trip to the state since launching his third presidential bid in November. Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, national polling shows.

As Trump boarded the plane, he mentioned a Thursday Emerson College poll to reporters that showed him up in the polls by nearly 50% against his GOP primary opponents.

Trump will announce his leadership team as well, which includes 50 members of the legislature, which the campaign says is a full 25% of Republicans in the New Hampshire House of Representatives.

Here Is Trump’s New Hampshire Leadership Team:

  • The Honorable Bruce Breton
  • The Honorable Lou Gargiulo
  • Representative Kimberly Abare, Hillsborough District 1
  • Representative Louise Andrus, Merrimack District 5
  • Representative Glenn Bailey, Strafford District 2
  • Representative Harry Bean, Belknap District 6
  • Representative Jacob Brouillard, Rockingham District 1
  • Representative Claudine Burnham, Strafford District 2
  • Representative Tim Cahill, Rockingham District 4
  • Representative Jose Cambrils, Merrimack District 4
  • Representative Brian Cole, Hillsborough District 26
  • Representative Debra DeSimone, Rockingham District 18
  • Representative Ron Dunn, Rockingham District 16
  • Representative Tracy Emerick, Rockingham District 29
  • Representative Keith Erf, Hillsborough District 28
  • Representative Larry Gagne, Hillsborough District 16
  • Representative Ted Gorski, Hillsborough District 2
  • Representative Gerald Griffin, Hillsborough District 42
  • Representative Tina Harley, Rockingham District 30
  • Representative Juliet Harvey-Bolia, Belknap District 3
  • Representative Gregory Hill, Merrimack District 2
  • Representative Thomas Kaczynski, Strafford District 5
  • Representative Diane Kelley, Hillsborough District 32
  • Representative Stephen Kennedy, Hillsborough District 13
  • Representative Aboul Khan, Rockingham District 30
  • Representative John Leavitt, Merrimack District 10
  • Representative Nikki McCarter, Belknap District 8
  • Representative Charles Melvin, Rockingham District 20
  • Representative Dane Nagel, Belknap District 6
  • Representative Kristine Perez, Rockingham District 16
  • Representative Joseph Pitre, Strafford District 1
  • Representative Tom Ploszaj, Belknap District 1
  • Representative John Potucek, Rockingham District 13
  • Representative Kevin Pratt, Rockingham District 4
  • Representative Arlene Quaratiello, Rockingham District 18
  • Representative Andrew Renzullo, Hillsborough District 13
  • Representative Jennifer Rhodes, Cheshire District 17
  • Representative Terry Roy, Rockingham District 31
  • Representative John Sellers, Grafton District 18
  • Representative Vanessa Sheehan, Hillsborough District 43
  • Representative Lisa Smart, Belknap District 2
  • Representative James Spillane, Rockingham District 2
  • Representative Jonathan Stone, Sullivan District 8
  • Representative James Summers, Rockingham District 20
  • Representative Jeffrey Tenczar, Hillsborough District 1
  • Representative Paul Terry, Belknap District 7
  • Representative Dick Thackston, Cheshire District 12
  • Representative Jordan Ulery, Hillsborough District 13
  • Representative Lilli Walsh, Rockingham District 15
  • Representative Kenneth Weyler, Rockingham District 14
  • Representative Robert Wherry, Hillsborough District 13
  • Representative Clayton Wood, Merrimack District 13

Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom Trump has repeatedly criticized, held an event in Manchester earlier in April not far from where Trump is holding his event Thursday night. DeSantis is seen as Trump’s main rival, though the governor has not yet announced a run for president.

Trump is set to make his remarks around 4:00 p.m. ET.

AUTHOR

HENRY RODGERS

Chief national correspondent.

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‘I’m More Angry Now’: Trump Kicks Off 2024 Campaign In New Hampshire And South Carolina

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Donald Trump held his first campaign events in New Hampshire and South Carolina on Saturday, kicking off his 2024 presidential bid in early voting states.

“I’ve got two years… I’m more angry now and I’m more committed now than I ever was,” the former president said in a speech to hundreds of GOP leaders in New Hampshire, defending starting the new phase of his launch months after the initial November announcement.

His 55-minute keynote speech focused on President Joe Biden, fentanyl and the border crisis, voter ID, the “woke” military, men playing in women’s sports and Hunter Biden’s laptop falsely being labeled “Russian disinformation.”

He said Democrats “hate our country” for allowing a record-breaking number of illegal immigrants to cross the border, and that it’s time to “wage war” on the drug cartels. 

Trump also stood by his handling of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, saying the documents were “sealed” and “not laying all over the garage floor,” alluding to Biden keeping classified documents in his Delaware garage.

“What a pigsty that place was,” Trump added. The White House and the Department of Justice have not stated what condition the documents were found in Biden’s garage, but one 2020 campaign video appears to show boxes of papers.

Hours later in Columbia, South Carolina, Trump spoke at the state Capitol building alongside South Carolina leaders Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham.

Trump’s South Carolina speech largely echoed that of New Hampshire, reiterating that many Democrat policies are like “April Fools’ Day,” because “they do just the opposite of common sense,” and unveiling his campaign leadership team for the state.

“We need a fighter who can stand up to the Left, can stand up to the swamp, stand up to the media, stand up to the deep state, am I allowed to say, ‘stand up to the RINOs’ too? I think we can say that,” Trump said, adding that he’s set to challenge the “entire establishment.”

The Saturday two events coincide with Trump’s campaign strategy for 2023. His campaign includes rolling out “top-level teams” in early voting states to “wage an overwhelming campaign that’s never been seen before,” Trump’s spokesperson, Steven Cheung, told the Daily Caller.

Up till now, Trump has released policy videos and made speeches at private events, including at the Republican Jewish Coalition and the America First Policy Institute.

AUTHOR

DIANA GLEBOVA

White House reporter.

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Video: Robert Spencer speaks at the Sullivan County Republican Party, New Hampshire

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After a great deal of controversy from the fascist Left and viciously biased “journalists” Kevin Landrigan of the New Hampshire Union Leader and John Gregg of Valley News, I spoke for the Sullivan County Republican Party of New Hampshire on Friday evening, October 4. My topic was the controversy itself, and what it reveals for the state of our response to jihad terror and the health of our society in general.

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EDITORS NOTE: This Jihad Watch column with video is republished with permission. © All rights reserved.

Clinton in Jeopardy of Losing New Hampshire to Sanders

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WASHINGTON /PRNewswire/ — One America News Network, “OAN”, a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, released today its most recent 2016 Republican and Democratic Presidential New Hampshire Poll results conducted by Gravis Marketing. The poll results show that Democratic Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders has increased his support to 39%, with Hillary Clinton only 4 percentage points ahead at 43%.  The results represent a major surge in the polls for Sanders, landing him within the margin of error away from Clinton.  Undeclared Elizabeth Warren received 8% with Joe Biden achieving 6%.  Martin O’Malley and Jim Webb both received 2% with Lincoln Chafee not registering a reportable percentage.

GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump continues his large lead with 32%, followed by John Kasich at 15% with Chris Christie coming in third at 9%.  Rounding out the top five are Ben Carson and Scott Walker, both achieving 8%.  Jeb Bush just missed the top five with 7% of the vote from polled Republican participants.

According to Robert Herring, Sr., CEO of One America News Network, “Bernie Sanders is surging in New Hampshire and threatening to win this early State.  With 14% of the participants voting for two undeclared candidates, we may see a Sanders victory in New Hampshire.  Kasich is also gaining in the polls and will be the challenger to watch.”

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1179 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election.  The sample includes 599 Republicans and 475 Democrats.  The poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.9%, 4.0% for the Republican results and 4.5% for the Democrat results.  The total may not equal exactly 100% due to rounding.  The polls were conducted on July 31st throughAugust 3rd using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented.  The poll was conducted exclusively for One America News Network.

One America News Network has been providing extensive coverage of the 2016 Presidential campaign, including numerous exclusive one-on-one interviews with the leading candidates.  One America News Network will be releasing on-going 2016 Presidential polling results, including national Presidential polling results at the end of July.  Complete poll results will be posted tomorrow at http://www.oann.com/pollNH

ABOUT ONE AMERICA NEWS NETWORK

One America News Network offers 21 hours of live news coverage plus two one-hour political talk shows, namely The Daily Ledger and On Point with Tomi Lahren.  While other emerging and established cable news networks offer multiple hours of live news coverage, only OAN can claim to consistently provide 21 hours of live coverage every weekday.   Third party viewership data for Q2 2015 from Rentrak, namely accumulated viewer hours, shows that OAN surpasses other news channels such as Al Jazeera America, Fusion, Fox Business News, and Bloomberg TV as measured on AT&T U-verse TV, across 65 markets.

Since its debut on July 4, 2013, One America News Network has grown its distribution to over 12 million households with carriage by AT&T U-Verse TV (ch 208/1208 in HD), Verizon FiOS TV (ch 116/616 in HD), GCI Cable, Frontier Communications, CenturyLink PRISM TV, Consolidated Communications, Duncan Cable, GVTC and numerous additional video providers.  One America News Network operates production studios and news bureaus in California and Washington, DC.   For more information on One America News Network, please visit www.OANN.com.

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