CIA Director, Mike Pompeo recently stated that “the North Koreans have a long history of being proliferators and sharing their knowledge, their technology, their capabilities around the world.” They are sharing these with Iran, having helped North Korea by providing funding, specific nuclear related knowledge and assists them with ballistic missile technology. Between 2013 and 2016, Iranian scientists were present at North Korean nuclear bomb tests.

By Morgan Norval

A 2009 Pew Research survey found that 52% of Americans believe the U.S. is facing a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack. This represents an increase from an earlier Pew poll taken after the 9-11 attack in which 40% of Americans worry that a U.S. city will be destroyed by a terrorist nuclear attack. Both of these polls were taken before the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs took over the headlines.

Are terrorists, on their own, able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon on a U.S. city? In other words, are we facing a scenario of a mad mullah sitting in a cave in Afghanistan or a tent somewhere in the deserts of the Middle East making a nuclear device? The short answer is no.

However, there are two questions to answer regarding a nuclear attack by terrorists: 1) do the terrorists have the capability—possess the weapon? 2) do the terrorists have the intent to use the nuclear device?

The answer to the second question is obvious—yes.

The terrorists will intend to use the weapon no matter what the cost will be to the terrorists themselves. The numerous suicide bombings, including the 9-11 attacks, are proof positive the weapon will be used when the terrorists have them.

The key question then becomes: “do they have the bomb?”

Having the bomb means they have the capability to use it. That, coupled with their obvious intent to use it, places the nuclear threshold lower than during the Cold War. There the Soviets had the capability to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. but their intent to do so never materialized as the likelihood of mutually assured destruction was a deterrent factor. The current situation is the reverse of the Cold War.

Let’s examine the terrorist capability and dispel the fantasy of the mad mullah in a cave or tent making a nuclear bomb. First of all, it requires fissile material, either enriched U-235 or, better yet, enriched Pu-239. Both of these are virtually impossible to make in a do-it-yourself fashion.

Permit me to indulge for a moment in the apocalyptic fantasy, and assume the terrorists posses the material, that material must be machined to an exacting shape—two hemispheres—in order to produce a proper explosion. If this wasn’t enough of a challenge, the terrorists must wrap the machined hemisphere to exact proportions in a suitable explosive material to drive the two hemispheres together to produce the desired nuclear explosion.

All this will require the following: a) a world class chemist and facility to obtain the material; b) a world class physicist to determine the exact shape of the material; c) the proper tools and machinist to mill the material to the specifics determined by the physicist; d) they must have on hand an expert in handling and wrapping the explosive material milled by the machinist, and; e) last, but far from least, an electronics expert to wire the explosive device, so it will go off when the terrorists want it to detonate.

These precision steps simply rule out the possibility of do-it-yourself terrorists making a bomb. Only nation states have the ability, resources, and secure territory to build a nuclear bomb. Two of those states are Iran and North Korea, both rogue states, and both hoped by the international community to not ever have nuclear weapons. That horse, however, has left the barn.

CIA Director, Mike Pompeo recently stated that “the North Koreans have a long history of being proliferators and sharing their knowledge, their technology, their capabilities around the world.” They are sharing these with Iran, having helped North Korea by providing funding, specific nuclear related knowledge and assists them with ballistic missile technology. Between 2013 and 2016, Iranian scientists were present at North Korean nuclear bomb tests.

The Obama Administration was aware of this collusion but did nothing to stop it as it would have negative consequences for Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. Obama’s deal with Iran released billions of dollars in frozen assets and now Iran has the money to buy missile and nuclear technology from North Korea. Iran, to give an impression of complying with the nuclear agreement, outsources much of its nuclear technology development to North Korea.

We are faced with two nuclear powers that hate America and have the capacity to attack the U.S. in some manner whether by missile or bomb aboard a tramp sea vessel that sails into one of our ports before detonating in the ship’s hold.

We are now back to the question of intent—do they intend to carry out a nuclear attack on the U.S.? Both rogue regimes have unstable leadership, which adds another disturbing element to the intent question.

North Korea’s leader is an impulsive, paranoid, egotistical individual who doesn’t care a whit about the consequences of starving people under his rule. The only hope is that he is not suicidal.

Iran is a different matter altogether.

The Iranian regime is awaiting the return of the 12th Iman or Mahdi and many in the regime believe instigating catastrophic events will hasten his return to save Shia Islam. Allah, in their view has condemned the United States. The faithful only had to find the means to carry out this condemnation. Nuclear weapons are the means and they can readily find suicide bombers to transport and detonate a nuclear device in their selected U.S. target.

Joel Rosenberg, author of The Twelfth Iman and The Tehran Initiative writes on his blog that “Shia Muslim leaders are convinced that the Mahdi’s arrival and reign is imminent and the way to hasten or accelerate his return” is to annihilate Israel and the United States.

In a reference to the Iranian documentary, The Coming, he says “[i]t explains how recent geopolitical events are, in the view of Shia eschatology experts, signs that we are living in the last days and that the Twelfth Imam or Mahdi is coming to earth at any moment to establish a global Islamic kingdom or caliphate to rule the world.”

But there is a problem for Iran in this scenario—because of nuclear forensics they can’t deny they had originated and supplied the device.

If Iran did carry out such an attack on America, our scientists would have the forensic ability to analyze radioactive debris, following the terrorist explosion. Using this debris, they would have the further ability to ID the source of the bomb material and enable a reconstruction of its key features. Scientists can trace the material to the original reactor or enrichment facility—a national government secure facility, not a mullah in a mountain cave or a desert tent.

Tracing the source would enable the U.S to launch a nuclear counter-strike against the offending state—Iran, North Korea—and utterly destroy it, if the political leadership of the U.S. had the will.

However, a political leadership that refused to retaliate would most certainly feel the wrath of most American citizens. Talk about grounds for impeachment and removal from office; failure to retaliate would certainly set in motion such a process. This might deter North Korea but might not deter Iran, who thinks they are carrying out Allah’s will and gaining paradise at the same time.

As a result, it is important that the U.S. upgrade its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems, and make it clear to everyone that a nuclear attack on the U.S. and its allies, will result in a rain of destruction pouring down on those who planned, supplied, and launched the terrorist attack.

Morgan Norval is the founder and Executive Director of the Selous Foundation for Public Policy Research and a contributor to SFPPR News & Analysis of the online-conservative-journalism center at the Washington-based foundation.